CLSK @ $15.32 UNDERWATER $5.41 (26.1% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 14 days. The recommended CC (7d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.42 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,089/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $411/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,375 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,545/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,089/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.42 (probe: $17.5C 14d) still earns $1,821/mo (36% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$6,344
was $4,375 · -45% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 68 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 53 · %B 81 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.91 (+23%) · daily UBB $16.19 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.42 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17.50 31 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.01/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 733 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 10d left | +$0.29/sh | +$726 cycle +$1,076 [+$505…+$936] · 97% credit | 65% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$20 | 21 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.15/sh | +$379 cycle +$729 [-$16…+$579] · 73% credit | 79% surv 74% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 10d left | +$0.08/sh | +$196 cycle +$546 [-$106…+$355] · 59% credit | 70% surv 62% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 21 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$133 cycle +$483 [-$304…+$307] · 46% credit | 81% surv 77% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 21 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.05/sh | -$123 cycle +$227 [-$614…+$35] · 27% credit | 82% surv 79% |
| budget: banked $350 debit $123 (35% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$227 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $2,078/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $21 21 Aug 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21)
89%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.77/sh now → $1.96 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $19.50 31 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19.50)
95%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.19/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $0.64–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 150 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $20 (overshoots $0.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 10d left | +$0.34/sh | +$855 cycle +$880 [+$771…+$1,388] · 99% credit | 66% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 10d left | +$0.13/sh | +$325 cycle +$350 [+$177…+$791] · 85% credit | 70% surv 61% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 21 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$169 cycle +$194 [-$59…+$719] · 71% credit | 80% surv 77% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (14 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.852 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,452 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $102
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $17 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.48 | 25/25 | $2,571 | $2,571 | 73% | 78% | +$86 | -$0 | 0.0% | $239 (vs do-nothing +$137) |
| $16.50 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 20/25 | $2,657 | $2,668 | 72% | 77% | $-58 | -$1,210 | 12.9% | $-1,128 (vs do-nothing $-1,230) |
| $17 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 25/25 | $2,571 | $2,571 | 69% | 77% | +$269 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,439 (vs do-nothing +$1,337) |
| $16.50 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.60 | 20/25 | $2,571 | $2,582 | 68% | 75% | +$7 | -$630 | 6.7% | $-548 (vs do-nothing $-650) |
| $16.50 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 25/25 | $2,607 | $2,607 | 66% | 75% | $-298 | -$463 | 5.0% | $-386 (vs do-nothing $-488) |
| $16.50 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 22/25 | $2,593 | $2,599 | 66% | 74% | +$197 | -$0 | 0.0% | $487 (vs do-nothing +$385) |
| $16 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 13/25 | $2,619 | $2,644 | 65% | 72% | +$57 | -$1,229 | 13.1% | $-1,140 (vs do-nothing $-1,242) |
| $16 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.74 | 17/25 | $2,696 | $2,713 | 62% | 72% | $-88 | -$1,148 | 12.3% | $-1,063 (vs do-nothing $-1,165) |
| $16 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 21/25 | $2,670 | $2,679 | 62% | 73% | $-292 | -$1,103 | 11.8% | $-1,022 (vs do-nothing $-1,124) |
| $16 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.28 | 19/25 | $2,606 | $2,619 | 62% | 72% | +$169 | -$257 | 2.7% | $-174 (vs do-nothing $-276) |
| $15.50 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.47 | 17/25 | $2,678 | $2,695 | 57% | 70% | +$123 | -$757 | 8.1% | $-672 (vs do-nothing $-774) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 17/25 | $2,671 | $2,689 | 57% | 71% | $-219 | -$1,386 | 14.8% | $-1,301 (vs do-nothing $-1,403) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 13/25 | $2,646 | $2,672 | 56% | 69% | $-41 | -$1,255 | 13.4% | $-1,166 (vs do-nothing $-1,268) |
Show 1 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $15.50 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 10/25 | $2,786 | $2,818 | 56% | 68% | $-7 | -$1,265 | 13.5% | $-1,173 (vs do-nothing $-1,275) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.