CLSK @ $13.87 UNDERWATER $6.87 (33.1% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 10 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.66 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,515/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $505/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,775 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,757/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,515/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $16.66 (probe: $16.5C 17d) still earns $1,985/mo (36% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$7,744
was $5,775 · -34% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 54 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 54 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.82 (+36%) · daily UBB $15.70 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $16.66 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 25 × $17.50 21 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
85%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.57/sh now → $1.82 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
💰 Richer · sell 25 × $18 14 Aug 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.17/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.26–$2.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 467 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 17, at $19 (overshoots $0.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.24/sh | +$609 cycle +$959 [+$379…+$1,109] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.05/sh | +$134 cycle +$484 [-$127…+$548] · 63% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.05/sh | +$134 cycle +$484 [-$127…+$548] · 63% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17)
98%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 55 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $18 (overshoots $0.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.52/sh | +$1,302 cycle +$1,402 [+$1,231…+$1,554] · 100% credit | 69% surv 53% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.08/sh | +$200 cycle +$300 [-$229…+$443] · 65% credit | 81% surv 77% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$98 cycle +$198 [-$270…+$310] · 60% credit | 76% surv 68% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.02/sh | -$58 cycle +$42 [-$539…+$183] · 47% credit | 83% surv 80% |
| budget: banked $100 debit $58 (58% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $2,499/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (16 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.834 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,824 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $74
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $15.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 16/25 | $2,880 | $2,907 | 87% | 90% | +$1,926 | -$1,574 | 16.8% | $-1,515 (vs do-nothing $-1,590) |
| $15 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 10/25 | $2,800 | $2,845 | 79% | 84% | +$1,567 | -$1,383 | 14.8% | $-1,319 (vs do-nothing $-1,393) |
| $15.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.45 | 21/25 | $2,835 | $2,847 | 77% | 82% | +$1,071 | -$1,498 | 16.0% | $-1,445 (vs do-nothing $-1,519) |
| $15.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 23/25 | $2,760 | $2,766 | 73% | 80% | +$896 | -$1,112 | 11.9% | $-1,061 (vs do-nothing $-1,135) |
| $15.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | 24/25 | $2,760 | $2,763 | 71% | 78% | +$810 | -$584 | 6.3% | $-534 (vs do-nothing $-608) |
| $15 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.56 | 17/25 | $2,856 | $2,880 | 71% | 78% | +$830 | -$1,876 | 20.1% | $-1,819 (vs do-nothing $-1,893) |
| $14.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 7/25 | $3,150 | $3,204 | 69% | 79% | +$1,481 | -$1,199 | 12.8% | $-1,132 (vs do-nothing $-1,206) |
| $15 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 22/25 | $2,834 | $2,843 | 68% | 77% | +$515 | -$2,054 | 22.0% | $-2,001 (vs do-nothing $-2,076) |
| $15 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.09 | 21/25 | $2,861 | $2,873 | 67% | 76% | +$762 | -$1,204 | 12.9% | $-1,151 (vs do-nothing $-1,225) |
| $14.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 14/25 | $2,856 | $2,889 | 63% | 74% | +$532 | -$2,077 | 22.2% | $-2,016 (vs do-nothing $-2,091) |
| $14.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.03 | 16/25 | $2,908 | $2,935 | 62% | 75% | +$736 | -$1,814 | 19.4% | $-1,755 (vs do-nothing $-1,830) |
| $14.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 18/25 | $2,902 | $2,924 | 62% | 74% | +$705 | -$1,572 | 16.8% | $-1,516 (vs do-nothing $-1,590) |
| $14 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.49 | 15/25 | $2,794 | $2,824 | 57% | 72% | +$574 | -$1,760 | 18.8% | $-1,701 (vs do-nothing $-1,775) |
Show 3 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $14 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.25 | 13/25 | $2,868 | $2,904 | 56% | 71% | +$624 | -$1,838 | 19.7% | $-1,776 (vs do-nothing $-1,851) |
| $14 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 5/25 | $3,050 | $3,110 | 56% | 72% | +$926 | -$1,027 | 11.0% | $-957 (vs do-nothing $-1,032) |
| $14 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 10/25 | $3,060 | $3,105 | 56% | 71% | +$797 | -$1,643 | 17.6% | $-1,579 (vs do-nothing $-1,653) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.