25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.99 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,654/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $588/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,075 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 3d | 18 × $14.50 | 83% | $2,340 | $1,401 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 10d | 25 × $15 | 80% | $2,400 | $192 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $15.50 | 31 Jul | 3d | 18.5% | 93%hist 100% | 14%hist 5% | +3pp | $125 | $1,250 | -$1,090 | $3,603 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15.50 18.5% OTM over spot $13.09 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.06 mid) = $125 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.56) 94% EV / mo +$612 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $796/mo median; plan ~$541/mo after 68% keep · $2,576 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,304 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $19 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.81/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.50–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 230 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $16 (overshoots $0.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $1 below CC-SS $16.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,018 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15.50): -$3,603 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,661 (+$4,414 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,628, the opportunity cost of earning $1,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,025, position total $-4,452 (+$3,623 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $15 | 31 Jul | 3d | 14.6% | 89%hist 99% | 22%hist 13% | +7pp | $160 | $1,600 | -$740 | $3,823 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $15 14.6% OTM over spot $13.09 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.09 mid) = $160 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $15.09) 90% EV / mo +$599 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $973/mo median; plan ~$662/mo after 68% keep · $2,933 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$931 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $19 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.55 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 392 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $16 (overshoots $0.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $15.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,018 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $15): -$3,823 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $21): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,875 (+$4,200 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,843, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,360, position total $-3,782 (+$4,293 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $14.50 | 31 Jul | 3d | 10.8% | 83%hist 99% | 35%hist 18% | +7pp | $234 | $2,340 | — | $4,250 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14.50 10.8% OTM over spot $13.09 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.16 mid) = $234 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $14.66) 85% EV / mo +$572 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,186/mo median; plan ~$807/mo after 68% keep · $3,538 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.4], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$702 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $18 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.56–$0.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 666 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,018 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14.50): -$4,250 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $21): +$7 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,301 (+$3,774 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,268, the opportunity cost of earning $2,340/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,434, position total $-3,854 (+$4,221 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 22 × $14 | 31 Jul | 3d | 7.0% | 74%hist 96% | 53%hist 43% | +13pp | $484 | $4,840 | +$2,500 | $6,097 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $14 7.0% OTM over spot $13.09 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.28 mid) = $484 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $14.28) 80% EV / mo +$735 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,095/mo median; plan ~$1,424/mo after 68% keep · $4,369 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$604 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $18 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life (likely $0.58–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,012 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $14.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,018 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $14): -$6,097 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $21): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,151 (+$1,924 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,119, the opportunity cost of earning $4,840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,988, position total $-6,412 (+$1,663 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 25 × $16.50 | 7 Aug | 10d | 26.1% | 91%hist 100% | 20%hist 5% | +4pp | $250 | $750 | -$1,650 | $978 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16.50 26.1% OTM over spot $13.09 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.17 mid) = $250 credit for the 10d cycle → $750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $16.66) 91% EV / mo +$141 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $487/mo median; plan ~$331/mo after 68% keep · $1,965 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.4], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,436 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $18 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.07 mid-life (likely $0.87–$1.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $17 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $0 below CC-SS $16.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $16.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,018 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16.50): -$978 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,036 (+$7,039 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,003, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,400, position total $-1,827 (+$6,248 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $15 | 7 Aug | 10d | 14.6% | 80%hist 96% | 43%hist 28% | +7pp | $512 | $1,536 | -$864 | $2,674 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $15 14.6% OTM over spot $13.09 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.36 mid) = $512 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,536/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $15.37) 83% EV / mo +$435 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $785/mo median; plan ~$534/mo after 68% keep · $2,917 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$976 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 934 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $15.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,018 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $15): -$2,674 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $21): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,722 (+$5,353 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,690, the opportunity cost of earning $1,536/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,504, position total $-1,922 (+$6,153 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $15 | 7 Aug | 10d | 14.6% | 80%hist 96% | 43%hist 28% | +11pp | $800 | $2,400 | — | $4,178 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $15 14.6% OTM over spot $13.09 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.36 mid) = $800 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $15.37) 83% EV / mo +$680 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,254/mo median; plan ~$853/mo after 68% keep · $3,729 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-3.5], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,525 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $0.98–$1.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 934 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $16.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $15.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,018 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $15): -$4,178 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,236 (+$3,839 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,203, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,600, position total $-5,027 (+$3,048 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $13.50 | 7 Aug | 10d | 3.2% | 60%hist 80% | 85%hist 80% | +12pp | $1,564 | $4,692 | +$2,292 | $6,466 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $13.50 3.2% OTM over spot $13.09 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.78 mid) = $1,564 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,692/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $14.28) 72% EV / mo +$470 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,779/mo median; plan ~$1,210/mo after 68% keep · $4,668 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$265 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $18 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $1.08–$1.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,043 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $3 below CC-SS $16.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $14.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,018 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $13.50): -$6,466 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,521 (+$1,554 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-32 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,489, the opportunity cost of earning $4,692/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.76 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,534, position total $-6,959 (+$1,116 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.821 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,018 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-32
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 18/25 | $2,340 | $2,361 | 83% | 85% | +$572 | -$4,250 | 45.5% | $-4,301 (vs do-nothing $-4,268) |
| $15 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.32 | 25/25 | $2,400 | $2,400 | 80% | 83% | +$680 | -$4,178 | 44.7% | $-4,236 (vs do-nothing $-4,203) |
| $14.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.42 | 19/25 | $2,394 | $2,412 | 74% | 80% | +$562 | -$3,935 | 42.1% | $-3,987 (vs do-nothing $-3,954) |
| $14 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 11/25 | $2,420 | $2,462 | 74% | 80% | +$367 | -$3,048 | 32.6% | $-3,092 (vs do-nothing $-3,059) |
| $14.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.57 | 24/25 | $2,414 | $2,417 | 72% | 79% | +$379 | -$4,611 | 49.3% | $-4,667 (vs do-nothing $-4,635) |
| $14.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 24/25 | $2,370 | $2,373 | 70% | 79% | +$330 | -$4,083 | 43.7% | $-4,139 (vs do-nothing $-4,107) |
| $14 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 15/25 | $2,385 | $2,415 | 68% | 76% | +$377 | -$3,692 | 39.5% | $-3,739 (vs do-nothing $-3,707) |
| $14 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.72 | 19/25 | $2,414 | $2,432 | 66% | 76% | +$303 | -$4,315 | 46.2% | $-4,367 (vs do-nothing $-4,334) |
| $14 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 22/25 | $2,420 | $2,429 | 65% | 76% | +$115 | -$4,645 | 49.7% | $-4,699 (vs do-nothing $-4,667) |
| $13.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 7/25 | $2,380 | $2,434 | 63% | 76% | +$35 | -$2,206 | 23.6% | $-2,245 (vs do-nothing $-2,213) |
| $13.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 12/25 | $2,448 | $2,487 | 60% | 72% | +$245 | -$3,374 | 36.1% | $-3,418 (vs do-nothing $-3,386) |
| $13.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 14/25 | $2,347 | $2,380 | 60% | 73% | +$333 | -$3,558 | 38.1% | $-3,604 (vs do-nothing $-3,572) |
| $13.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.12 | 17/25 | $2,380 | $2,404 | 60% | 74% | +$202 | -$4,031 | 43.1% | $-4,081 (vs do-nothing $-4,048) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 14/25 | $2,450 | $2,483 | 54% | 72% | +$274 | -$3,628 | 38.8% | $-3,674 (vs do-nothing $-3,642) |
| $13 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 12/25 | $2,414 | $2,453 | 53% | 69% | +$211 | -$3,422 | 36.6% | $-3,466 (vs do-nothing $-3,434) |
| $13 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 9/25 | $2,457 | $2,505 | 52% | 68% | +$227 | -$2,773 | 29.7% | $-2,815 (vs do-nothing $-2,782) |
| $13 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 5/25 | $2,900 | $2,960 | 50% | 66% | +$118 | -$1,706 | 18.2% | $-1,743 (vs do-nothing $-1,711) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.