CLSK @ $13.21 UNDERWATER $7.52 (36.3% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CLSK reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 9 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.33 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,289/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $457/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,538 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,145/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$4,289/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
6.3 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.33 (probe: $17C 16d) still earns $938/mo (22% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$10,506
was $8,538 · -23% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 41 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.77 (+42%) · daily UBB $15.57 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.33 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 25 × $17.50 21 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
88%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.83/sh now → $2.00 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
💰 Richer · sell 25 × $18 21 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.95/sh now → $2.09 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.60 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.57/sh | +$1,421 cycle +$1,446 | 68% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.24/sh | +$610 cycle +$635 | 72% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.01/sh | +$17 cycle +$42 | 84% surv 82% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (18 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.822 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,450 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-38
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $15 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.06 | 24/25 | $2,160 | $2,164 | 90% | 91% | +$808 | -$5,440 | 58.2% | $-5,526 (vs do-nothing $-5,488) |
| $14.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 16/25 | $2,160 | $2,194 | 84% | 86% | +$279 | -$4,379 | 46.8% | $-4,449 (vs do-nothing $-4,411) |
| $15 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.27 | 24/25 | $2,160 | $2,164 | 79% | 83% | +$399 | -$4,936 | 52.8% | $-5,022 (vs do-nothing $-4,984) |
| $14 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 8/25 | $2,400 | $2,464 | 74% | 80% | +$495 | -$2,501 | 26.8% | $-2,555 (vs do-nothing $-2,517) |
| $15 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 25/25 | $2,152 | $2,152 | 73% | 80% | +$386 | -$4,167 | 44.6% | $-4,255 (vs do-nothing $-4,217) |
| $14.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.54 | 22/25 | $2,228 | $2,239 | 70% | 77% | +$91 | -$5,031 | 53.8% | $-5,113 (vs do-nothing $-5,075) |
| $14.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 21/25 | $2,191 | $2,206 | 69% | 78% | +$341 | -$4,256 | 45.5% | $-4,336 (vs do-nothing $-4,298) |
| $14 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.54 | 12/25 | $2,160 | $2,209 | 66% | 75% | +$357 | -$3,344 | 35.8% | $-3,406 (vs do-nothing $-3,368) |
| $14 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 17/25 | $2,231 | $2,261 | 64% | 74% | +$80 | -$4,466 | 47.8% | $-4,537 (vs do-nothing $-4,500) |
| $14 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 17/25 | $2,195 | $2,225 | 64% | 74% | +$338 | -$3,973 | 42.5% | $-4,044 (vs do-nothing $-4,007) |
| $13.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 5/25 | $2,400 | $2,475 | 61% | 72% | +$126 | -$1,753 | 18.8% | $-1,801 (vs do-nothing $-1,763) |
| $13.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.18 | 14/25 | $2,155 | $2,196 | 58% | 73% | +$273 | -$3,706 | 39.6% | $-3,771 (vs do-nothing $-3,734) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 10/25 | $2,367 | $2,423 | 58% | 73% | +$268 | -$3,117 | 33.3% | $-3,175 (vs do-nothing $-3,137) |
Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 12/25 | $2,250 | $2,299 | 58% | 71% | +$299 | -$3,392 | 36.3% | $-3,454 (vs do-nothing $-3,416) |
| $13 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.41 | 12/25 | $2,207 | $2,256 | 53% | 71% | +$238 | -$3,500 | 37.4% | $-3,562 (vs do-nothing $-3,524) |
| $13 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 11/25 | $2,331 | $2,383 | 51% | 68% | +$65 | -$3,516 | 37.6% | $-3,576 (vs do-nothing $-3,538) |
| $13 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 7/25 | $2,217 | $2,284 | 49% | 69% | +$210 | -$2,364 | 25.3% | $-2,416 (vs do-nothing $-2,378) |
| $13 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 3/25 | $2,520 | $2,602 | 45% | 65% | +$115 | -$1,130 | 12.1% | $-1,174 (vs do-nothing $-1,136) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.