25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.40 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,950/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $542/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-10,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 19 × $13.50 | 73% | $2,066 | $-282 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $16 | 7 Aug | 8d | 29.3% | 94%hist 100% | 12%hist 5% | +1pp | $125 | $469 | -$1,597 | $3,386 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16 29.3% OTM over spot $12.37 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.08 mid) = $125 credit for the 8d cycle → $469/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $16.09) 94% EV / mo +$148 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $307/mo median; plan ~$209/mo after 68% keep · $1,325 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,277 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 72% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 175 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $17.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,328 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16): -$3,386 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,309 (+$7,941 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,173 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,481, the opportunity cost of earning $469/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,725, position total $-2,642 (+$7,608 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $14 | 7 Aug | 8d | 13.2% | 80%hist 96% | 42%hist 28% | +4pp | $361 | $1,354 | -$712 | $6,107 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $14 13.2% OTM over spot $12.37 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.24 mid) = $361 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,354/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $14.24) 83% EV / mo +$38 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $668/mo median; plan ~$454/mo after 68% keep · $3,284 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,129 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $15 @ 73% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.11/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 867 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $14.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,328 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $14): -$6,107 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20.50): +$23 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,007 (+$5,243 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,173 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,180, the opportunity cost of earning $1,354/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,645, position total $-4,540 (+$5,710 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $13.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 9.1% | 73%hist 96% | 56%hist 43% | +6pp | $551 | $2,066 | — | $6,867 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $13.50 9.1% OTM over spot $12.37 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.34 mid) = $551 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,066/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $13.84) 78% EV / mo +$74 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $880/mo median; plan ~$598/mo after 68% keep · $4,205 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$859 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,276 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $13.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,328 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $13.50): -$6,867 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20.50): +$23 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,767 (+$4,483 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,173 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,940, the opportunity cost of earning $2,066/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,405, position total $-5,300 (+$4,950 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $12.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 1.1% | 56%hist 79% | 94%hist 90% | +8pp | $1,083 | $4,061 | +$1,995 | $8,235 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $12.50 1.1% OTM over spot $12.37 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $1,083 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,061/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $13.21) 69% EV / mo $-152 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,231/mo median; plan ~$837/mo after 68% keep · $4,238 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$175 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.94/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,222 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $5 below CC-SS $17.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $13.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,328 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $12.50): -$8,235 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $20.50): +$23 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,135 (+$3,115 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,173 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,308, the opportunity cost of earning $4,061/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.74 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,773, position total $-6,668 (+$3,582 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$11,328 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,173
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.29 | 19/25 | $2,066 | $2,112 | 73% | 78% | +$74 | -$6,867 | 73.4% | $-5,767 (vs do-nothing $-6,940) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.40 | 25/25 | $2,000 | $2,000 | 70% | 77% | $-366 | -$8,761 | 93.7% | $-7,684 (vs do-nothing $-8,856) |
| $13.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.64 | 23/25 | $1,996 | $2,011 | 68% | 74% | $-44 | -$7,516 | 80.4% | $-6,431 (vs do-nothing $-7,604) |
| $13 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.41 | 13/25 | $1,999 | $2,090 | 65% | 73% | $-31 | -$5,193 | 55.5% | $-4,070 (vs do-nothing $-5,242) |
| $13 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.57 | 18/25 | $2,052 | $2,105 | 63% | 72% | $-221 | -$6,902 | 73.8% | $-5,798 (vs do-nothing $-6,970) |
| $13 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 19/25 | $2,068 | $2,113 | 63% | 71% | $-53 | -$6,852 | 73.3% | $-5,752 (vs do-nothing $-6,924) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 15/25 | $1,982 | $2,058 | 57% | 68% | $-104 | -$5,903 | 63.1% | $-4,788 (vs do-nothing $-5,960) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 13/25 | $2,054 | $2,145 | 56% | 69% | $-109 | -$5,349 | 57.2% | $-4,226 (vs do-nothing $-5,398) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.57 | 10/25 | $2,137 | $2,251 | 56% | 69% | $-80 | -$4,334 | 46.4% | $-3,200 (vs do-nothing $-4,372) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.