25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.74 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $4,850/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $486/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,350 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 22 × $15 | 81% | $2,475 | $-83 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $16 | 7 Aug | 8d | 20.7% | 91%hist 100% | 20%hist 5% | +4pp | $350 | $1,312 | -$1,162 | $3,996 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16 20.7% OTM over spot $13.26 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.20 mid) = $350 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $16.20) 92% EV / mo +$743 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $816/mo median; plan ~$555/mo after 68% keep · $3,522 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.4], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,207 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $18 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.45/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $0.90–$1.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $16.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,214 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16): -$3,996 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,133 (+$5,217 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-111 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,021, the opportunity cost of earning $1,312/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,575, position total $-4,592 (+$4,758 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $15.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 16.9% | 87%hist 99% | 28%hist 13% | +8pp | $440 | $1,650 | -$825 | $4,037 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $15.50 16.9% OTM over spot $13.26 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.26 mid) = $440 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $15.76) 89% EV / mo +$889 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $953/mo median; plan ~$648/mo after 68% keep · $3,610 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,508 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.38/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 616 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $15.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,214 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $15.50): -$4,037 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $20): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,168 (+$5,182 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-111 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,057, the opportunity cost of earning $1,650/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,100, position total $-4,112 (+$5,238 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 22 × $15 | 7 Aug | 8d | 13.2% | 81%hist 99% | 39%hist 18% | +11pp | $660 | $2,475 | — | $5,365 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $15 13.2% OTM over spot $13.26 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.35 mid) = $660 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,475/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $15.35) 85% EV / mo +$1,118 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,196/mo median; plan ~$814/mo after 68% keep · $5,109 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,379 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 904 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $15.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,214 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $15): -$5,365 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $20): +$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,498 (+$3,852 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-111 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,387, the opportunity cost of earning $2,475/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,634, position total $-5,648 (+$3,702 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $14 | 7 Aug | 8d | 5.6% | 67%hist 80% | 70%hist 51% | +14pp | $1,334 | $5,002 | +$2,527 | $7,264 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $14 5.6% OTM over spot $13.26 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.66 mid) = $1,334 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,002/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $14.66) 77% EV / mo +$1,627 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,905/mo median; plan ~$1,295/mo after 68% keep · $5,625 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$587 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $18 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.18/sh now → $0.84 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,651 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $14.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,214 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $14): -$7,264 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $20): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,399 (+$1,951 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-111 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,287, the opportunity cost of earning $5,002/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.77 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,637, position total $-7,652 (+$1,698 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.822 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,214 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-111
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.30 | 22/25 | $2,475 | $2,481 | 81% | 85% | +$1,118 | -$5,365 | 57.4% | $-5,498 (vs do-nothing $-5,387) |
| $14.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.59 | 21/25 | $2,478 | $2,486 | 70% | 78% | +$397 | -$5,562 | 59.5% | $-5,694 (vs do-nothing $-5,583) |
| $14 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.58 | 12/25 | $2,610 | $2,636 | 67% | 77% | +$849 | -$3,790 | 40.5% | $-3,914 (vs do-nothing $-3,802) |
| $14 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 18/25 | $2,479 | $2,493 | 63% | 74% | +$480 | -$4,911 | 52.5% | $-5,041 (vs do-nothing $-4,929) |
| $13.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.21 | 15/25 | $2,475 | $2,495 | 58% | 71% | +$410 | -$4,543 | 48.6% | $-4,669 (vs do-nothing $-4,558) |
| $13.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 9/25 | $2,632 | $2,664 | 58% | 73% | +$697 | -$3,113 | 33.3% | $-3,233 (vs do-nothing $-3,122) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 13/25 | $2,522 | $2,546 | 58% | 71% | +$348 | -$4,249 | 45.4% | $-4,373 (vs do-nothing $-4,262) |
| $13 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 17/25 | $2,457 | $2,473 | 52% | 67% | $-418 | -$6,253 | 66.9% | $-6,382 (vs do-nothing $-6,270) |
| $13 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 11/25 | $2,640 | $2,668 | 51% | 68% | +$289 | -$3,892 | 41.6% | $-4,015 (vs do-nothing $-3,903) |
| $13 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 7/25 | $2,625 | $2,661 | 48% | 69% | +$495 | -$2,617 | 28.0% | $-2,735 (vs do-nothing $-2,624) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.