CLSK @ $14.82 UNDERWATER $5.92 (28.5% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
CLSK reports 2026-08-06 (Thu), in 6 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.07 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,036/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $508/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,688 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,518/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,036/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.07 (probe: $17C 14d) still earns $1,768/mo (35% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$6,656
was $4,688 · -42% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 63 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist rising
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 74 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.88 (+27%) · daily UBB $15.96 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-06: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.07 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17.50 7 Aug 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17.50)
88%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.16/sh now → $0.82 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 594 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $18 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$567 cycle +$892 [+$338…+$860] · 95% credit | 66% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 28 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.14/sh | +$345 cycle +$670 [-$108…+$656] · 68% credit | 74% surv 68% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 28 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$175 cycle +$500 [-$253…+$474] · 56% credit | 79% surv 74% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$38 cycle +$363 [-$284…+$283] · 47% credit | 71% surv 62% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $19 14 Aug 2026 (14d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.86/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.14–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 448 simulated challenges: the $19 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $20 (overshoots $0.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 28 Aug 2026 | 21d left | +$0.20/sh | +$508 cycle +$658 [+$196…+$1,068] · 85% credit | 67% surv 57% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 21 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.09/sh | +$222 cycle +$372 [-$8…+$650] · 74% credit | 68% surv 56% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 21 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.09/sh | +$222 cycle +$372 [-$8…+$650] · 74% credit | 68% surv 56% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$19 | 21 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.08/sh | +$191 cycle +$341 [-$68…+$640] · 69% credit | 66% surv 55% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $20.50 7 Aug 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20.50)
98%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.47/sh now → $1.04 mid-life (likely $0.79–$1.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 76 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $21 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 10d left | +$0.30/sh | +$745 cycle +$770 [+$781…+$1,449] · 97% credit | 66% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 28 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.29/sh | +$727 cycle +$752 [+$676…+$1,513] · 95% credit | 77% surv 71% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 10d left | +$0.09/sh | +$225 cycle +$250 [+$173…+$871] · 82% credit | 70% surv 60% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.846 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,761 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $99
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $16.50 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.27 | 22/25 | $2,546 | $2,552 | 78% | 81% | +$275 | -$663 | 7.1% | $-586 (vs do-nothing $-685) |
| $16 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.40 | 15/25 | $2,571 | $2,593 | 72% | 77% | +$280 | -$1,007 | 10.8% | $-923 (vs do-nothing $-1,022) |
| $16 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.51 | 24/25 | $2,623 | $2,625 | 68% | 75% | $-452 | -$1,347 | 14.4% | $-1,272 (vs do-nothing $-1,371) |
| $16 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.81 | 22/25 | $2,546 | $2,552 | 67% | 74% | +$155 | -$575 | 6.1% | $-498 (vs do-nothing $-597) |
| $15.50 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 12/25 | $2,726 | $2,754 | 64% | 73% | +$94 | -$1,250 | 13.4% | $-1,163 (vs do-nothing $-1,262) |
| $15.50 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 17/25 | $2,659 | $2,676 | 63% | 72% | +$29 | -$1,430 | 15.3% | $-1,348 (vs do-nothing $-1,447) |
| $15.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.98 | 18/25 | $2,520 | $2,535 | 62% | 72% | +$112 | -$1,064 | 11.4% | $-983 (vs do-nothing $-1,082) |
| $15 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 20/25 | $2,550 | $2,561 | 57% | 70% | $-281 | -$1,763 | 18.9% | $-1,684 (vs do-nothing $-1,783) |
| $15 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 16/25 | $2,674 | $2,694 | 57% | 69% | +$61 | -$1,442 | 15.4% | $-1,359 (vs do-nothing $-1,458) |
| $15 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.94 | 13/25 | $2,619 | $2,644 | 56% | 69% | +$48 | -$1,471 | 15.7% | $-1,385 (vs do-nothing $-1,484) |
| $15 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 9/25 | $2,700 | $2,734 | 56% | 68% | $-47 | -$1,234 | 13.2% | $-1,144 (vs do-nothing $-1,243) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.