CLSK @ $14.41 UNDERWATER $6.33 (30.5% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
CLSK reports 2026-08-06 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (17d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.
25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $16.84 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $7.807/sh)
SP: $17 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $6.523/sh)
HP: $10 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $2.461/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,044/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $442/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,037 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,022/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$6,044/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $9,350
ML VELOCITY
4.4 mo to earn back $26,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $16.84 (probe: $17C 17d) still earns $2,338/mo (39% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$-1,969
Hole (after banked)
$7,006
was $5,037 · -39% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 63 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $18.74 (+30%) · daily UBB $15.88 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-06: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $16.84 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 25 × $17 21 Aug 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17)
82%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.02/sh now → $1.43 mid-life (likely $1.51–$2.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,149 simulated challenges: the $17 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 17, at $18 (overshoots $0.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.27/sh | -$683 cycle +$642 [-$1,392…-$634] · 10% credit | 65% surv 55% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$18 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.48/sh | -$1,192 cycle +$133 [-$1,981…-$1,200] · 4% credit | 69% surv 60% |
| budget: banked $1,325 debit $1,192 (90% used ≈ 2.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$133 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $4,456/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $20 14 Aug 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
96%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.66/sh now → $1.88 mid-life (likely $1.42–$2.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 151 simulated challenges: the $20 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $21 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$20 | 21 Aug 2026 | 12d left | -$0.00/sh | -$4 cycle +$46 [-$140…+$953] · 66% credit | 69% surv 56% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 21 Aug 2026 | 12d left | -$0.02/sh | -$40 cycle +$10 [-$188…+$932] · 65% credit | 69% surv 55% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 25 × $18 7 Aug 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
96%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.38/sh now → $0.98 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 168 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $19 (overshoots $0.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.40/sh | +$998 cycle +$1,023 [+$775…+$1,358] · 93% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.03/sh | +$64 cycle +$89 [-$215…+$413] · 63% credit | 83% surv 76% |
| SS $21 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$90 cycle +$115 [-$327…+$363] · 54% credit | 75% surv 66% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (14 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.838 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,089 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $176
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $16.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.19 | 16/25 | $3,040 | $3,119 | 86% | 89% | +$1,560 | -$238 | 2.5% | $-142 (vs do-nothing $-318) |
| $16 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.32 | 10/25 | $3,200 | $3,332 | 80% | 84% | +$1,580 | -$519 | 5.5% | $-393 (vs do-nothing $-569) |
| $16 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.56 | 18/25 | $3,024 | $3,086 | 74% | 80% | +$1,010 | -$502 | 5.4% | $-416 (vs do-nothing $-592) |
| $15.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.42 | 8/25 | $3,360 | $3,510 | 73% | 80% | +$1,211 | -$735 | 7.9% | $-599 (vs do-nothing $-775) |
| $16 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 22/25 | $3,106 | $3,132 | 71% | 78% | +$650 | -$86 | 0.9% | $-20 (vs do-nothing $-196) |
| $15.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 15/25 | $3,195 | $3,283 | 68% | 77% | +$911 | -$943 | 10.1% | $-842 (vs do-nothing $-1,018) |
| $15.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.94 | 19/25 | $3,152 | $3,205 | 66% | 75% | +$530 | -$758 | 8.1% | $-677 (vs do-nothing $-853) |
| $15 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.61 | 5/25 | $3,050 | $3,226 | 64% | 75% | +$941 | -$614 | 6.6% | $-463 (vs do-nothing $-639) |
| $15 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 12/25 | $3,132 | $3,247 | 62% | 74% | +$693 | -$1,163 | 12.4% | $-1,047 (vs do-nothing $-1,223) |
| $15 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 15/25 | $3,071 | $3,159 | 61% | 73% | +$532 | -$1,018 | 10.9% | $-917 (vs do-nothing $-1,093) |
| $14.50 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.12 | 22/25 | $3,080 | $3,106 | 56% | 70% | $-402 | -$2,682 | 28.7% | $-2,616 (vs do-nothing $-2,792) |
| $14.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.37 | 13/25 | $3,143 | $3,249 | 56% | 70% | +$467 | -$1,260 | 13.5% | $-1,149 (vs do-nothing $-1,325) |
| $14.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.08 | 10/25 | $3,240 | $3,372 | 55% | 72% | +$579 | -$1,259 | 13.5% | $-1,133 (vs do-nothing $-1,309) |
Show 1 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $14.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.86 | 4/25 | $3,440 | $3,625 | 55% | 71% | +$922 | -$592 | 6.3% | $-435 (vs do-nothing $-612) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.