25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.25 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,425/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $449/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,725 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 2d | 23 × $16.50 | 91% | $2,760 | $1,257 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 9d | 21 × $16 | 76% | $2,800 | $-199 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $16.50 | 7 Aug | 2d | 17.7% | 91%hist 99% | 19%hist 6% | +3pp | $120 | $1,800 | -$960 | $1,007 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $16.50 17.7% OTM over spot $14.02 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.13 mid) = $120 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $16.63) 92% EV / mo +$653 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,293/mo median; plan ~$879/mo after 68% keep · $1,589 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.2-1.4], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$991 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $19 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 309 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $1 below CC-SS $17.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $16.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,707 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $16.50): -$1,007 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $21): +$50 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-974 (+$5,751 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $107 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,082, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,195, position total $-132 (+$6,593 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 23 × $16.50 | 7 Aug | 2d | 17.7% | 91%hist 99% | 19%hist 6% | +5pp | $184 | $2,760 | — | $1,543 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $16.50 17.7% OTM over spot $14.02 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.13 mid) = $184 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,760/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $16.63) 92% EV / mo +$1,002 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,859/mo median; plan ~$1,264/mo after 68% keep · $1,998 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.2-1.5], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,520 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $19 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 328 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $1 below CC-SS $17.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $16.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,707 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $16.50): -$1,543 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,551 (+$5,174 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $107 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,658, the opportunity cost of earning $2,760/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,899, position total $-1,876 (+$4,849 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $16.50 | 7 Aug | 2d | 17.7% | 91%hist 99% | 19%hist 6% | +7pp | $200 | $3,000 | +$240 | $1,678 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16.50 17.7% OTM over spot $14.02 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.13 mid) = $200 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $16.63) 92% EV / mo +$1,089 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,000/mo median; plan ~$1,360/mo after 68% keep · $2,377 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,652 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $19 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 358 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $1 below CC-SS $17.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $16.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,707 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16.50): -$1,678 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,696 (+$5,029 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $107 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,803, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,325, position total $-2,312 (+$4,413 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 25 × $16 | 7 Aug | 2d | 14.1% | 86%hist 95% | 29%hist 18% | +8pp | $375 | $5,625 | +$2,865 | $2,753 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16 14.1% OTM over spot $14.02 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $375 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $16.20) 88% EV / mo +$2,116 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,420/mo median; plan ~$2,326/mo after 68% keep · $3,483 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.2-1.3], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,404 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $18 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.01/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 516 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $17 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $17.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $16.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,707 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16): -$2,753 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,771 (+$3,954 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $107 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,878, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,400, position total $-3,387 (+$3,338 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 25 × $18 | 14 Aug | 9d | 28.4% | 91%hist 99% | 19%hist 6% | +2pp | $300 | $1,000 | -$1,800 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $18 28.4% OTM over spot $14.02 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.23 mid) = $300 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $18) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $18.23) 92% EV / mo +$261 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $716/mo median; plan ~$487/mo after 68% keep · $1,291 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.8], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,496 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $19 @ 72% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.58/sh now → $1.12 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 527 simulated challenges: the $18 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $19 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $18 is at/above CC-SS $17.25: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $18.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $18)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,707 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $18): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18 (+$6,707 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $107 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-125, the opportunity cost of earning $1,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,475, position total $1,538 (+$8,263 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $16 | 14 Aug | 9d | 14.1% | 76%hist 92% | 52%hist 43% | +4pp | $560 | $1,867 | -$933 | $1,191 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $16 14.1% OTM over spot $14.02 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.45 mid) = $560 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,867/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $16.45) 79% EV / mo $-95 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,238/mo median; plan ~$842/mo after 68% keep · $1,851 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$769 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $18 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.34/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $1.08–$1.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,211 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $17 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $17.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $16.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,707 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $16): -$1,191 + Conservative CC premium (11 × $21): +$55 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,154 (+$5,571 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $107 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,261, the opportunity cost of earning $1,867/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,234, position total $-166 (+$6,559 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $16 | 14 Aug | 9d | 14.1% | 76%hist 92% | 52%hist 43% | +7pp | $840 | $2,800 | — | $1,787 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $16 14.1% OTM over spot $14.02 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.45 mid) = $840 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $16.45) 79% EV / mo $-143 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,775/mo median; plan ~$1,207/mo after 68% keep · $2,435 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.7], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,154 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $18 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.34/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $1.04–$1.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,174 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $17 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $17.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $16.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,707 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $16): -$1,787 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $21): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,785 (+$4,940 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $107 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,892, the opportunity cost of earning $2,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,851, position total $-1,818 (+$4,907 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 23 × $14.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 3.4% | 60%hist 78% | 87%hist 81% | +8pp | $1,679 | $5,597 | +$2,797 | $4,648 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $14.50 3.4% OTM over spot $14.02 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.85 mid) = $1,679 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,597/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $15.35) 70% EV / mo $-1,075 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,825/mo median; plan ~$1,921/mo after 68% keep · $3,485 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$230 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $18 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $1.13–$1.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,053 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.73 collected) or spot ≥ $15.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,707 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $14.50): -$4,648 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $21): +$10 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,656 (+$2,069 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $107 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,763, the opportunity cost of earning $5,597/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,004, position total $-4,981 (+$1,744 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.831 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$6,707 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $107
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.08 | 23/25 | $2,760 | $2,779 | 91% | 92% | +$1,002 | -$1,543 | 16.5% | $-1,551 (vs do-nothing $-1,658) |
| $16 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.15 | 13/25 | $2,925 | $3,038 | 86% | 88% | +$1,100 | -$1,431 | 15.3% | $-1,389 (vs do-nothing $-1,496) |
| $15.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.23 | 8/25 | $2,760 | $2,919 | 80% | 83% | +$806 | -$1,217 | 13.0% | $-1,150 (vs do-nothing $-1,257) |
| $16 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.40 | 21/25 | $2,800 | $2,838 | 76% | 79% | $-143 | -$1,787 | 19.1% | $-1,785 (vs do-nothing $-1,892) |
| $15 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.33 | 6/25 | $2,970 | $3,148 | 72% | 78% | +$553 | -$1,153 | 12.3% | $-1,076 (vs do-nothing $-1,183) |
| $15.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.44 | 19/25 | $2,787 | $2,843 | 71% | 76% | $-643 | -$2,491 | 26.6% | $-2,479 (vs do-nothing $-2,586) |
| $15 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.57 | 15/25 | $2,850 | $2,944 | 66% | 73% | $-601 | -$2,522 | 27.0% | $-2,489 (vs do-nothing $-2,597) |
| $15 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 19/25 | $2,850 | $2,906 | 66% | 76% | +$238 | -$2,757 | 29.5% | $-2,745 (vs do-nothing $-2,852) |
| $15 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 24/25 | $2,817 | $2,827 | 64% | 72% | $-1,334 | -$3,243 | 34.7% | $-3,255 (vs do-nothing $-3,363) |
| $14.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.50 | 4/25 | $3,000 | $3,197 | 63% | 73% | +$474 | -$900 | 9.6% | $-813 (vs do-nothing $-920) |
| $14.50 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.98 | 22/25 | $2,812 | $2,840 | 61% | 70% | $-1,532 | -$3,896 | 41.7% | $-3,899 (vs do-nothing $-4,006) |
| $14.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 12/25 | $2,920 | $3,042 | 60% | 70% | $-561 | -$2,425 | 25.9% | $-2,378 (vs do-nothing $-2,485) |
| $14.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.98 | 15/25 | $2,756 | $2,850 | 60% | 71% | +$186 | -$2,657 | 28.4% | $-2,624 (vs do-nothing $-2,732) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 17/25 | $2,750 | $2,825 | 57% | 68% | $-1,071 | -$3,419 | 36.6% | $-3,397 (vs do-nothing $-3,504) |
| $14 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.18 | 13/25 | $2,876 | $2,989 | 54% | 68% | +$127 | -$2,692 | 28.8% | $-2,650 (vs do-nothing $-2,757) |
| $14 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 9/25 | $3,000 | $3,150 | 54% | 67% | $-254 | -$2,026 | 21.7% | $-1,964 (vs do-nothing $-2,071) |
| $14 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 3/25 | $2,970 | $3,176 | 52% | 68% | +$139 | -$777 | 8.3% | $-685 (vs do-nothing $-792) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.