25 contracts (2,500 sh) | BE SS: $20.74 | CC-SS: $17.28 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $26,850 | (ND $3.74 + SW $7) x 2500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $471/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,038 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 25 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 24 × $14 | 71% | $2,880 | $-895 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 25 × $16 | 14 Aug | 8d | 23.9% | 93%hist 99% | 14%hist 6% | +5pp | $325 | $1,219 | -$1,661 | $2,866 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $16 23.9% OTM over spot $12.91 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.21 mid) = $325 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,219/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $16.21) 94% EV / mo +$859 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $810/mo median; plan ~$551/mo after 68% keep · $3,447 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.3], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,360 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 72% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.07 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 294 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $17.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $16.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,918 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $16): -$2,866 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,985 (+$6,052 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $6 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,991, the opportunity cost of earning $1,219/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,350, position total $-3,623 (+$5,415 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 22 × $15 | 14 Aug | 8d | 16.2% | 83%hist 95% | 37%hist 22% | +5pp | $528 | $1,980 | -$900 | $4,480 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $15 16.2% OTM over spot $12.91 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.47 mid) = $528 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,980/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $15.47) 87% EV / mo +$554 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $993/mo median; plan ~$676/mo after 68% keep · $4,480 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-3.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,613 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $17 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.38/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 684 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $2 below CC-SS $17.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $15.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,918 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $15): -$4,480 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $20): +$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,584 (+$4,453 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $6 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,590, the opportunity cost of earning $1,980/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,546, position total $-4,804 (+$4,234 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $14 | 14 Aug | 8d | 8.4% | 71%hist 92% | 62%hist 55% | +7pp | $768 | $2,880 | — | $7,095 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $14 8.4% OTM over spot $12.91 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.49 mid) = $768 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $14.49) 77% EV / mo $-426 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,106/mo median; plan ~$752/mo after 68% keep · $4,585 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,336 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $1.01–$1.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,309 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $17.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $14.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,918 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $14): -$7,095 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,209 (+$1,828 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $6 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,215, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,440, position total $-7,708 (+$1,330 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $13.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 4.6% | 64%hist 78% | 75%hist 59% | +18pp | $1,560 | $5,850 | +$2,970 | $7,503 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13.50 4.6% OTM over spot $12.91 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.76 mid) = $1,560 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $14.26) 77% EV / mo +$1,987 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,244/mo median; plan ~$1,526/mo after 68% keep · $6,576 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$432 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $1.06–$1.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,787 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $14.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,038 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,918 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13.50): -$7,503 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $20): +$5 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,617 (+$1,420 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $6 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,623, the opportunity cost of earning $5,850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $18.67 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,848, position total $-8,116 (+$922 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.817 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,918 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $6
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.32 | 24/25 | $2,880 | $2,890 | 71% | 77% | $-426 | -$7,095 | 75.9% | $-7,209 (vs do-nothing $-7,215) |
| $14 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 21/25 | $2,982 | $3,022 | 68% | 78% | +$620 | -$5,389 | 57.6% | $-5,489 (vs do-nothing $-5,494) |
| $13.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 12/25 | $2,925 | $3,055 | 64% | 77% | +$994 | -$3,752 | 40.1% | $-3,806 (vs do-nothing $-3,812) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 16/25 | $2,880 | $2,970 | 62% | 75% | +$553 | -$4,602 | 49.2% | $-4,676 (vs do-nothing $-4,682) |
| $13.50 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.86 | 25/25 | $2,932 | $2,932 | 62% | 74% | +$6 | -$7,291 | 78.0% | $-7,410 (vs do-nothing $-7,416) |
| $13 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 21/25 | $3,007 | $3,047 | 56% | 71% | $-50 | -$6,775 | 72.5% | $-6,875 (vs do-nothing $-6,880) |
| $13 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.15 | 13/25 | $2,990 | $3,110 | 55% | 71% | +$717 | -$4,064 | 43.5% | $-4,124 (vs do-nothing $-4,129) |
| $13 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 9/25 | $2,970 | $3,130 | 55% | 72% | +$853 | -$3,057 | 32.7% | $-3,096 (vs do-nothing $-3,102) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 25 contracts at the conservative CC.