3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $189.85 (banked floor $184.53) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $4,528/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $82/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,244 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 21 Aug 2026 · 2d | 3 × $162.50 | 95% | $3,060 | $2,893 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 28 Aug 2026 · 9d | 3 × $162.50 | 78% | $2,480 | $498 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $172.50 | 21 Aug | 2d | 14.6% | 99+%hist 97% | 0%hist 1% | -1pp | $10 | $150 | -$2,910 | $1,725 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $172.50 14.6% OTM over spot $150.55 21 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.22 mid) = $10 credit for the 2d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $172.72) 99+% EV / mo +$149 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $135/mo median; plan ~$92/mo after 68% keep · $526 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-2.8], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$356 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $202 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.17/sh now → $3.66 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $17 below CC-SS $189.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $172.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $166.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,244 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,593 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $172.50): -$1,725 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $182.50): -$1,362 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,737 (+$10,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,693 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,044, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,439 (+$6,805 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $172.50 | 28 Aug | 9d | 14.6% | 90%hist 97% | 20%hist 25% | +2pp | $306 | $1,020 | -$2,040 | $4,898 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 14.6% OTM over spot $150.55 28 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.25 mid) = $306 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $173.75) 91% EV / mo +$516 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $641/mo median; plan ~$436/mo after 68% keep · $2,054 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,572 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $187 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.85/sh now → $6.26 mid-life (likely $4.96–$8.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 357 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $176 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $17 below CC-SS $189.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.02 collected) or spot ≥ $173.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $166.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,244 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,593 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$4,898 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,549 (+$8,695 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,693 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,856, the opportunity cost of earning $1,020/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,547 (+$6,697 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $165 | 21 Aug | 2d | 9.6% | 98%hist 97% | 5%hist 1% | +2pp | $141 | $2,115 | -$945 | $7,313 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 9.6% OTM over spot $150.55 21 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.51 mid) = $141 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,115/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $165.51) 98% EV / mo +$2,009 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $510/mo median; plan ~$347/mo after 68% keep · $1,782 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$872 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $194 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.77/sh now → $3.38 mid-life (likely $3.17–$6.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 73 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $168 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $25 below CC-SS $189.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $165.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $166.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,244 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,593 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$7,313 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,964 (+$6,280 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,693 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,271, the opportunity cost of earning $2,115/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,332, position total $-7,879 (+$5,365 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 21 Aug | 2d | 7.9% | 95%hist 97% | 10%hist 10% | +6pp | $204 | $3,060 | — | $8,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 7.9% OTM over spot $150.55 21 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.74 mid) = $204 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,060/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $163.24) 96% EV / mo +$2,759 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,133/mo median; plan ~$771/mo after 68% keep · $3,216 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$781 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $192 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.65/sh now → $3.28 mid-life (likely $3.52–$7.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 164 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $166 (overshoots $3.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $27 below CC-SS $189.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $163.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $166.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,244 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,593 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$8,000 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,651 (+$5,593 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,693 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,958, the opportunity cost of earning $3,060/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,019, position total $-8,566 (+$4,678 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $160 | 21 Aug | 2d | 6.3% | 85%hist 87% | 31%hist 30% | +16pp | $312 | $4,680 | +$1,620 | $8,642 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $160 6.3% OTM over spot $150.55 21 Aug 2026 (2d, $1.07 mid) = $312 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $161.07) 87% EV / mo +$2,580 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,636/mo median; plan ~$1,793/mo after 68% keep · $5,554 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.5-3.2], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$646 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $189 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.52/sh now → $3.19 mid-life (likely $3.56–$6.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $163 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $30 below CC-SS $189.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.04 collected) or spot ≥ $161.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $166.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,244 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,593 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $160): -$8,642 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,293 (+$4,951 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,693 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,600, the opportunity cost of earning $4,680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,661, position total $-9,208 (+$4,036 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $190 | 28 Aug | 9d | 26.2% | 97%hist 97% | 6%hist 1% | -1pp | $40 | $133 | -$2,347 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $190 26.2% OTM over spot $150.55 28 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.34 mid) = $40 credit for the 9d cycle → $133/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $190.34) 97% EV / mo +$74 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $122/mo median; plan ~$83/mo after 68% keep · $464 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,451 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $204 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.54/sh now → $7.45 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $190 is at/above CC-SS $189.85: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $190.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $166.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,244 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,593 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $190): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$681 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-331 (+$12,912 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,693 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,362, the opportunity cost of earning $133/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,493 (+$6,751 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $172.50 | 28 Aug | 9d | 14.6% | 90%hist 97% | 20%hist 25% | +2pp | $306 | $1,020 | -$1,460 | $4,898 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 14.6% OTM over spot $150.55 28 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.25 mid) = $306 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $173.75) 91% EV / mo +$516 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $641/mo median; plan ~$436/mo after 68% keep · $2,054 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,572 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $187 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.85/sh now → $6.26 mid-life (likely $4.96–$8.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 357 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $176 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $17 below CC-SS $189.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.02 collected) or spot ≥ $173.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $166.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,244 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,593 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$4,898 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,549 (+$8,695 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,693 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,856, the opportunity cost of earning $1,020/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,547 (+$6,697 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $167.50 | 28 Aug | 9d | 11.3% | 85%hist 87% | 31%hist 30% | +4pp | $492 | $1,640 | -$840 | $6,212 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $167.50 11.3% OTM over spot $150.55 28 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.73 mid) = $492 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $169.24) 87% EV / mo +$760 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $957/mo median; plan ~$651/mo after 68% keep · $2,522 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,290 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $184 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.40/sh now → $5.94 mid-life (likely $5.30–$8.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 630 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $171 (overshoots $3.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $22 below CC-SS $189.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $169.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $166.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,244 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,593 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $167.50): -$6,212 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,863 (+$7,381 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,693 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,170, the opportunity cost of earning $1,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$231, position total $-6,778 (+$6,466 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 28 Aug | 9d | 7.9% | 78%hist 85% | 45%hist 38% | +8pp | $744 | $2,480 | — | $7,460 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 7.9% OTM over spot $150.55 28 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.71 mid) = $744 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $165.21) 82% EV / mo +$945 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,202/mo median; plan ~$817/mo after 68% keep · $3,780 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$944 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $184 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.96/sh now → $5.63 mid-life (likely $5.79–$9.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,045 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $166 (overshoots $3.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $27 below CC-SS $189.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.48 collected) or spot ≥ $165.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $166.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,244 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,593 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$7,460 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,111 (+$6,133 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,693 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,418, the opportunity cost of earning $2,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,479, position total $-8,026 (+$5,218 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $155 | 28 Aug | 9d | 3.0% | 63%hist 69% | 77%hist 64% | +11pp | $1,365 | $4,550 | +$2,070 | $9,089 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $155 3.0% OTM over spot $150.55 28 Aug 2026 (9d, $4.80 mid) = $1,365 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $159.80) 74% EV / mo +$1,157 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,708/mo median; plan ~$1,161/mo after 68% keep · $4,826 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-3.5], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$187 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $184 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.31/sh now → $5.17 mid-life (likely $6.71–$9.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,806 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $158 (overshoots $3.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $35 below CC-SS $189.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.14/sh (~25% of the $4.55 collected) or spot ≥ $159.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $166.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.15 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,244 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,593 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $155): -$9,089 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,740 (+$4,504 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,693 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,047, the opportunity cost of earning $4,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,108, position total $-9,655 (+$3,589 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.153 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,593 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,693
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 2d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 3/3 | $3,060 | $2,978 | 95% | 96% | +$2,759 | -$8,000 | 134.7% | $-7,651 (vs do-nothing $-5,958) |
| $160 | 2d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 2/3 | $3,120 | $3,139 | 85% | 87% | +$1,720 | -$5,762 | 97.0% | $-6,093 (vs do-nothing $-4,400) |
| $157.50 | 2d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.53 | 1/3 | $2,295 | $2,415 | 84% | 88% | +$1,698 | -$3,082 | 51.9% | $-4,094 (vs do-nothing $-2,401) |
| $162.50 | 9d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.48 | 3/3 | $2,480 | $2,398 | 78% | 82% | +$945 | -$7,460 | 125.6% | $-7,111 (vs do-nothing $-5,418) |
| $155 | 2d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.26 | 1/3 | $3,390 | $3,510 | 74% | 83% | +$2,145 | -$3,259 | 54.9% | $-4,271 (vs do-nothing $-2,578) |
| $160 | 9d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 3/3 | $3,200 | $3,118 | 74% | 80% | +$1,185 | -$7,994 | 134.6% | $-7,645 (vs do-nothing $-5,952) |
| $160 | 16d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.70 | 3/3 | $2,644 | $2,562 | 70% | 77% | +$755 | -$7,544 | 127.0% | $-7,195 (vs do-nothing $-5,502) |
| $157.50 | 9d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 2/3 | $2,467 | $2,486 | 69% | 77% | +$715 | -$5,730 | 96.5% | $-6,061 (vs do-nothing $-4,368) |
| $160 | 23d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.90 | 3/3 | $2,309 | $2,226 | 68% | 76% | +$593 | -$7,184 | 120.9% | $-6,835 (vs do-nothing $-5,142) |
| $157.50 | 16d | 4 Sep 2026 | $5.50 | 3/3 | $3,094 | $3,012 | 66% | 75% | +$801 | -$8,054 | 135.6% | $-7,705 (vs do-nothing $-6,012) |
| $157.50 | 23d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.55 | 3/3 | $2,563 | $2,481 | 64% | 74% | +$547 | -$7,739 | 130.3% | $-7,390 (vs do-nothing $-5,697) |
| $155 | 9d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.55 | 2/3 | $3,033 | $3,052 | 63% | 74% | +$771 | -$6,060 | 102.0% | $-6,391 (vs do-nothing $-4,698) |
| $152.50 | 2d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 1/3 | $4,500 | $4,620 | 62% | 77% | +$2,154 | -$3,435 | 57.8% | $-4,447 (vs do-nothing $-2,754) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $155 | 16d | 4 Sep 2026 | $6.45 | 2/3 | $2,419 | $2,438 | 61% | 73% | +$573 | -$5,680 | 95.6% | $-6,011 (vs do-nothing $-4,318) |
| $155 | 23d | 11 Sep 2026 | $7.50 | 3/3 | $2,935 | $2,853 | 60% | 72% | +$573 | -$8,204 | 138.1% | $-7,855 (vs do-nothing $-6,162) |
| $152.50 | 9d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.55 | 2/3 | $3,700 | $3,719 | 57% | 71% | +$812 | -$6,360 | 107.1% | $-6,691 (vs do-nothing $-4,998) |
| $152.50 | 16d | 4 Sep 2026 | $7.10 | 2/3 | $2,662 | $2,682 | 56% | 70% | +$448 | -$6,050 | 101.8% | $-6,381 (vs do-nothing $-4,688) |
| $152.50 | 23d | 11 Sep 2026 | $8.50 | 3/3 | $3,326 | $3,244 | 56% | 70% | +$572 | -$8,654 | 145.7% | $-8,305 (vs do-nothing $-6,612) |
| $150 | 23d | 11 Sep 2026 | $9.70 | 2/3 | $2,530 | $2,549 | 52% | 68% | +$399 | -$6,030 | 101.5% | $-6,361 (vs do-nothing $-4,668) |
| $150 | 16d | 4 Sep 2026 | $8.60 | 2/3 | $3,225 | $3,244 | 52% | 68% | +$585 | -$6,250 | 105.2% | $-6,581 (vs do-nothing $-4,888) |
| $150 | 9d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.65 | 2/3 | $4,433 | $4,452 | 51% | 68% | +$793 | -$6,640 | 111.8% | $-6,971 (vs do-nothing $-5,278) |
| $149 | 23d | 11 Sep 2026 | $10.00 | 2/3 | $2,609 | $2,628 | 50% | 68% | +$350 | -$6,170 | 103.9% | $-6,501 (vs do-nothing $-4,808) |
| $149 | 16d | 4 Sep 2026 | $7.55 | 2/3 | $2,831 | $2,850 | 50% | 66% | +$5 | -$6,660 | 112.1% | $-6,991 (vs do-nothing $-5,298) |
| $148 | 23d | 11 Sep 2026 | $10.70 | 2/3 | $2,791 | $2,810 | 49% | 67% | +$400 | -$6,230 | 104.9% | $-6,561 (vs do-nothing $-4,868) |
| $149 | 9d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 1/3 | $2,400 | $2,520 | 48% | 67% | +$411 | -$3,365 | 56.6% | $-4,377 (vs do-nothing $-2,684) |
| $150 | 2d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.30 | 1/3 | $6,450 | $6,570 | 48% | 71% | +$2,430 | -$3,555 | 59.8% | $-4,567 (vs do-nothing $-2,874) |
| $148 | 16d | 4 Sep 2026 | $9.55 | 2/3 | $3,581 | $3,600 | 47% | 67% | +$565 | -$6,460 | 108.7% | $-6,791 (vs do-nothing $-5,098) |
| $148 | 9d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.00 | 1/3 | $2,667 | $2,787 | 45% | 66% | +$498 | -$3,385 | 57.0% | $-4,397 (vs do-nothing $-2,704) |
| $149 | 2d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.70 | 1/3 | $7,050 | $7,170 | 42% | 69% | +$2,187 | -$3,615 | 60.9% | $-4,627 (vs do-nothing $-2,934) |
| $148 | 2d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 1/3 | $8,025 | $8,145 | 37% | 67% | +$2,222 | -$3,650 | 61.4% | $-4,662 (vs do-nothing $-2,969) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.