COIN-LC145 @ $152.27 UNDERWATER $30.13 (16.5% below BE SS)
3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $189.56 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $145 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $87.285/sh)
SP: $200 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $68.614/sh)
HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.148/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $4,866/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $205/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-12,507 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,433/mo
HEDGE COVER
$205/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,866/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.2 mo to earn back $5,940
ML VELOCITY
8.9 mo to earn back $43,440
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $190 brings only $518/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 15 (live) · RSI 36 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 32 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $178.83 (+17%) · daily UBB $172.65 · 1-wk expected move ±$15 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 3 contracts at $162 / 9d. This is the safest strike (survival 72%, breach 28%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,433/mo); it brings $2,860/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 3 × $155/9d for $5,150/mo, but breach risk rises to 44% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 3 × $190/9d (97% survival, $240/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $7,260 (122% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $182, recoverable in 1.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 3 contracts realizes $-12,566 and cuts bleed by $205/mo.
📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first
Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 3 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again).
🎯
Engine pick: sell
3 × $162 (primary) —
72% survival, breach
28%,
$2,860/mo.
⚖️
Worth a safer step: the
$168 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to
80% (breach 28% → 20%) for
$1,080/mo less (38% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium.
Lean: the safer $168 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect COIN to stay flat-to-down near term.
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COIN are the tiebreakers.
🎯 50% normal · sell 3×$162, 6.7% OTM, 72% surv
Sell 3 × $162 6.7% OTM over spot $152.27 10 Jul 2026 (9d, $3.05 mid)
= $858 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,860/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $162)
72%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$853
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$185 @ 81% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.06/sh now → $5.70 mid-life (likely $6.38–$9.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,311 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $166 (overshoots $3.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$162 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$2.60/sh | +$779 cycle +$1,637 [+$573…+$847] · 100% credit | 64% surv 50% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$170 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | +$1.61/sh | +$482 cycle +$1,340 [+$139…+$498] · 88% credit | 70% surv 61% |
| SS $182 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$168 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.39/sh | +$116 cycle +$974 [-$180…+$107] · 37% credit | 69% surv 59% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$185 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | -$2.32/sh | -$696 cycle +$162 [-$1,310…-$786] · 2% credit | 81% surv 78% |
| budget: banked $858 debit $696 (81% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$162 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $1,692/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,860/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,433/mo) | +18% |
| vs normal income ($4,866/mo) | 59% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,655/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $162 is $27 below CC-SS $190: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$7,260 |
| … as % of IC ($5,940) | 122.2% |
| … as % of ML ($43,440) | 16.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-12,566 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.86 collected) or spot ≥ $165.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $160.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Let expire; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$161-165.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $165.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $162.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $858 | $-8,218 | +$4,289 | +$432 |
| +2.5% | $166.56 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-361 | $-8,074 | +$4,433 | -$787 |
| +5% | $170.62 (1.1σ) | $-1,580 | $-7,930 | +$4,577 | -$2,006 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $182.40 (1.8σ) | $-5,112 | $-7,513 | +$4,994 | -$5,538 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.56, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,507
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,507
− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162): -$7,260
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,260 (+$5,247 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,568, the opportunity cost of earning $2,860/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $178.83 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,041, position total $-7,640 (+$4,867 vs today)
33% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 3×$168, 10.0% OTM, 80% surv
Sell 3 × $168 10.0% OTM over spot $152.27 10 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.96 mid)
= $534 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,780/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $168)
80%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,269
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$185 @ 77% POP
72% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.50/sh now → $6.01 mid-life (likely $6.07–$9.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 843 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $171 (overshoots $3.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$168 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$2.73/sh | +$820 cycle +$1,354 [+$662…+$963] · 100% credit | 64% surv 50% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$175 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | +$1.84/sh | +$553 cycle +$1,087 [+$260…+$685] · 95% credit | 70% surv 61% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$173 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.51/sh | +$154 cycle +$688 [-$106…+$225] · 58% credit | 69% surv 59% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$180 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$44 cycle +$578 [-$341…+$112] · 35% credit | 74% surv 67% |
| SS $182 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$185 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | -$1.21/sh | -$363 cycle +$171 [-$832…-$322] · 11% credit | 77% surv 72% |
| budget: banked $534 debit $363 (68% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$171 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,399/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,780/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,433/mo) | -27% |
| vs normal income ($4,866/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,575/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $168 is $22 below CC-SS $190: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,084 |
| … as % of IC ($5,940) | 102.4% |
| … as % of ML ($43,440) | 14.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.3 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-12,560 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.78 collected) or spot ≥ $169.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $165.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Let expire; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$166-169.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $169.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $167.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $534 | $-6,865 | +$5,642 | +$108 |
| +2.5% | $171.69 (1.1σ) | $-722 | $-6,717 | +$5,790 | -$1,148 |
| +5% | $175.88 (1.4σ) | $-1,978 | $-6,568 | +$5,939 | -$2,404 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $182.40 (1.8σ) | $-3,936 | $-6,337 | +$6,170 | -$4,362 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.56, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,507
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,507
− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $168): -$6,084
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,084 (+$6,423 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,392, the opportunity cost of earning $1,780/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $178.83 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,865, position total $-6,464 (+$6,043 vs today)
100% normal · sell 3×$155, 1.8% OTM, 56% surv
Sell 3 × $155 1.8% OTM over spot $152.27 10 Jul 2026 (9d, $5.58 mid)
= $1,545 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,150/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $155)
56%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$33
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$193 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.44/sh now → $5.26 mid-life (likely $7.19–$10.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,051 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $159 (overshoots $3.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$155 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$2.40/sh | +$719 cycle +$2,264 [+$458…+$594] · 100% credit | 64% surv 50% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$163 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | +$1.27/sh | +$381 cycle +$1,926 [-$89…+$149] · 62% credit | 71% surv 62% |
| SS $182 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$160 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.21/sh | +$62 cycle +$1,607 [-$339…-$138] · 12% credit | 70% surv 60% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$193 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | -$4.04/sh | -$1,212 cycle +$333 [-$2,281…-$1,649] | 91% surv 90% |
| budget: banked $1,545 debit $1,212 (78% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$333 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $610/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $5,150/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,433/mo) | +112% |
| vs normal income ($4,866/mo) | 106% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,945/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $155 is $35 below CC-SS $190: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,823 |
| … as % of IC ($5,940) | 148.5% |
| … as % of ML ($43,440) | 20.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.8 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-12,634 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.29/sh (~25% of the $5.15 collected) or spot ≥ $160.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $153.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Let expire; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$153-160.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $160.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $155.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,545 | $-10,046 | +$2,461 | +$1,119 |
| +2.5% | $158.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $382 | $-9,909 | +$2,598 | -$44 |
| +5% | $162.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-780 | $-9,772 | +$2,735 | -$1,206 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $182.40 (1.8σ) | $-6,675 | $-9,076 | +$3,431 | -$7,101 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.56, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,507
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,507
− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $155): -$8,823
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,823 (+$3,684 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,131, the opportunity cost of earning $5,150/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $178.83 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,604, position total $-9,203 (+$3,304 vs today)
cover hedge · sell 3×$190, 24.8% OTM, 97% surv
Sell 3 × $190 24.8% OTM over spot $152.27 10 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.30 mid)
= $72 credit for the 9d cycle → $240/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $190)
97%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,171
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$208 @ 75% POP
68% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.57/sh now → $7.48 mid-life (likely $4.26–$7.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 86 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 9, at $193 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$190 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$3.40/sh | +$1,020 cycle +$1,092 [+$1,206…+$1,685] · 100% credit | 64% surv 50% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$203 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | +$1.15/sh | +$345 cycle +$417 [+$470…+$1,108] · 95% credit | 72% surv 64% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$198 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.31/sh | +$93 cycle +$165 [+$155…+$712] · 92% credit | 70% surv 60% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$208 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | -$0.39/sh | -$117 cycle -$45 [-$85…+$655] · 71% credit | 75% surv 68% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $240/mo |
| vs 50% target ($2,433/mo) | -90% |
| vs normal income ($4,866/mo) | 5% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $35/mo |
Downside budget
✓ $190 is at/above CC-SS $190: assignment is break-even or better.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($5,940) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($43,440) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-12,525 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $190.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $188.10 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Let expire; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$188-190.30 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $190.30 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $190.00 (2.2σ) | $72 | $220 | +$12,727 | +$1,896 |
| +2.5% | $194.75 (2.5σ) | $-1,353 | $388 | +$12,895 | +$1,896 |
| +5% | $199.50 (2.8σ) | $-2,778 | $556 | +$13,063 | +$1,896 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.56, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-12,507
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,507
− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $190): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-0 (+$12,507 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,692, the opportunity cost of earning $240/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $178.83 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,599 (+$8,908 vs today)
FIGHT CC options
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.118 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$12,507 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,692
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $162 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 3/3 | $2,860 | $2,655 | 72% | 77% | +$678 | -$7,260 | 122.2% | $-7,260 (vs do-nothing $-5,568) |
| $160 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 3/3 | $3,550 | $3,345 | 67% | 74% | +$730 | -$7,803 | 131.4% | $-7,803 (vs do-nothing $-6,111) |
| $162 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 3/3 | $2,756 | $2,551 | 67% | 74% | +$589 | -$6,648 | 111.9% | $-6,648 (vs do-nothing $-4,956) |
| $160 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 3/3 | $3,234 | $3,029 | 63% | 72% | +$645 | -$7,143 | 120.3% | $-7,143 (vs do-nothing $-5,451) |
| $158 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 2/3 | $2,767 | $2,828 | 62% | 71% | +$365 | -$5,582 | 94.0% | $-6,146 (vs do-nothing $-4,454) |
| $160 | 23d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 3/3 | $2,857 | $2,651 | 61% | 71% | +$502 | -$6,678 | 112.4% | $-6,678 (vs do-nothing $-4,986) |
| $158 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 2/3 | $2,456 | $2,517 | 59% | 69% | +$404 | -$5,102 | 85.9% | $-5,666 (vs do-nothing $-3,974) |
| $155 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 2/3 | $3,433 | $3,495 | 56% | 68% | +$405 | -$5,882 | 99.0% | $-6,446 (vs do-nothing $-4,754) |
| $155 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 2/3 | $2,831 | $2,892 | 55% | 67% | +$406 | -$5,402 | 90.9% | $-5,966 (vs do-nothing $-4,274) |
| $155 | 23d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.10 | 3/3 | $3,561 | $3,356 | 54% | 67% | +$457 | -$7,638 | 128.6% | $-7,638 (vs do-nothing $-5,946) |
| $152 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 2/3 | $4,333 | $4,395 | 51% | 66% | +$566 | -$6,112 | 102.9% | $-6,676 (vs do-nothing $-4,984) |
| $152 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 2/3 | $3,244 | $3,305 | 50% | 65% | +$395 | -$5,682 | 95.7% | $-6,246 (vs do-nothing $-4,554) |
| $150 | 23d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.40 | 2/3 | $2,974 | $3,035 | 47% | 64% | +$289 | -$5,632 | 94.8% | $-6,196 (vs do-nothing $-4,504) |
Show 2 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $150 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 2/3 | $3,694 | $3,755 | 46% | 63% | +$371 | -$5,942 | 100.0% | $-6,506 (vs do-nothing $-4,814) |
| $150 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 1/3 | $2,483 | $2,811 | 45% | 63% | +$171 | -$3,211 | 54.1% | $-4,339 (vs do-nothing $-2,647) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.
Legend
| BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike) | The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS. |
| Max Loss (ML) | Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike. |
| Normal income | At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS). |
| 50% income floor | The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it |
| Hedge rolling cost | Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares |
| POP (mid) | Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available |
| Survival | Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike) |
| EV/mo | Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%) |
| CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike) | The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager). |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS | (CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS. |
| %IC / %ML | Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary) |
| Recovery months | Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income |
| Conservative CC | Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts |