3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $187.67 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,808/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $100/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,120 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 3 × $175 | 80% | $2,981 | $674 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $200 | 17 Jul | 8d | 24.5% | 97% | 6% | $40 | $150 | -$2,831 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $200 24.5% OTM over spot $160.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.42 mid) = $40 credit for the 8d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $200.42) 97% EV / mo +$113 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,380 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$754 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $212 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.22/sh now → $7.94 mid-life (likely $4.64–$10.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 66 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $204 (overshoots $4.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $200 is at/above CC-SS $187.67: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $200.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,120 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $200): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $182.50): -$433 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-433 (+$8,687 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-650 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$217, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,231 (+$6,889 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $185 | 17 Jul | 8d | 15.2% | 91% | 19% | $357 | $1,339 | -$1,643 | $443 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $185 15.2% OTM over spot $160.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.25 mid) = $357 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,339/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $186.25) 92% EV / mo +$779 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,615 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,725 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $197 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.81/sh now → $6.94 mid-life (likely $5.81–$9.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 387 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $189 (overshoots $3.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $3 below CC-SS $187.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.19 collected) or spot ≥ $186.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,120 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $185): -$443 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-443 (+$8,677 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-650 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$207, the opportunity cost of earning $1,339/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,831 (+$6,289 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $180 | 17 Jul | 8d | 12.1% | 86% | 28% | $531 | $1,991 | -$990 | $1,769 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $180 12.1% OTM over spot $160.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.87 mid) = $531 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,991/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $181.87) 88% EV / mo +$1,018 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,035 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,455 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $194 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.36/sh now → $6.62 mid-life (likely $6.12–$9.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 579 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $184 (overshoots $3.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $8 below CC-SS $187.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.77 collected) or spot ≥ $181.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,120 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $180): -$1,769 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,769 (+$7,351 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,119, the opportunity cost of earning $1,991/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,831 (+$6,289 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 8d | 9.0% | 80% | 32% | $795 | $2,981 | — | $3,005 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 9.0% OTM over spot $160.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.75 mid) = $795 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,981/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $177.75) 84% EV / mo +$1,308 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,883 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,098 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $192 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.92/sh now → $6.31 mid-life (likely $6.40–$9.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 975 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $179 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $13 below CC-SS $187.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.65 collected) or spot ≥ $177.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,120 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$3,005 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,005 (+$6,115 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,355, the opportunity cost of earning $2,981/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$486, position total $-3,317 (+$5,803 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 8d | 2.7% | 62% | 79% | $1,650 | $6,188 | +$3,206 | $5,150 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 2.7% OTM over spot $160.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $5.62 mid) = $1,650 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,188/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $170.62) 73% EV / mo +$1,675 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~10.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,475 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$63 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $192 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.07/sh now → $5.71 mid-life (likely $7.55–$10.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,884 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $169 (overshoots $3.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $23 below CC-SS $187.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.38/sh (~25% of the $5.50 collected) or spot ≥ $170.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,120 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$5,150 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,150 (+$3,970 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,500, the opportunity cost of earning $6,188/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.27 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,631, position total $-5,462 (+$3,658 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.124 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,120 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-650
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 3/3 | $2,981 | $2,881 | 80% | 84% | +$1,308 | -$3,005 | 50.6% | $-3,005 (vs do-nothing $-2,355) |
| $172.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/3 | $3,544 | $3,444 | 76% | 81% | +$1,368 | -$3,605 | 60.7% | $-3,605 (vs do-nothing $-2,955) |
| $170 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 3/3 | $4,331 | $4,231 | 72% | 79% | +$1,528 | -$4,145 | 69.8% | $-4,145 (vs do-nothing $-3,495) |
| $172.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/3 | $3,240 | $3,140 | 71% | 78% | +$1,021 | -$2,930 | 49.3% | $-2,930 (vs do-nothing $-2,280) |
| $170 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 3/3 | $3,720 | $3,620 | 68% | 76% | +$1,077 | -$3,440 | 57.9% | $-3,440 (vs do-nothing $-2,790) |
| $167.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 2/3 | $3,450 | $3,950 | 67% | 76% | +$1,065 | -$3,113 | 52.4% | $-3,330 (vs do-nothing $-2,680) |
| $167.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 3/3 | $4,260 | $4,160 | 64% | 74% | +$1,129 | -$3,920 | 66.0% | $-3,920 (vs do-nothing $-3,270) |
| $165 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 2/3 | $4,125 | $4,625 | 62% | 73% | +$1,117 | -$3,433 | 57.8% | $-3,650 (vs do-nothing $-3,000) |
| $165 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 2/3 | $3,220 | $3,720 | 60% | 72% | +$762 | -$2,923 | 49.2% | $-3,140 (vs do-nothing $-2,490) |
| $162.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 2/3 | $4,875 | $5,375 | 56% | 70% | +$1,125 | -$3,733 | 62.8% | $-3,950 (vs do-nothing $-3,300) |
| $162.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.05 | 2/3 | $3,620 | $4,120 | 56% | 70% | +$744 | -$3,223 | 54.3% | $-3,440 (vs do-nothing $-2,790) |
| $160 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.30 | 2/3 | $4,120 | $4,620 | 52% | 68% | +$776 | -$3,473 | 58.5% | $-3,690 (vs do-nothing $-3,040) |
| $160 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 2/3 | $5,775 | $6,275 | 51% | 68% | +$1,158 | -$3,993 | 67.2% | $-4,210 (vs do-nothing $-3,560) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.60 | 2/3 | $4,640 | $5,140 | 48% | 67% | +$778 | -$3,713 | 62.5% | $-3,930 (vs do-nothing $-3,280) |
| $157.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.00 | 1/3 | $3,375 | $4,475 | 45% | 66% | +$567 | -$2,117 | 35.6% | $-2,550 (vs do-nothing $-1,900) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.