3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $194.57 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $4,710/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $143/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-10,270 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 3 × $170 | 79% | $2,565 | $454 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $200 | 17 Jul | 8d | 27.8% | 98% | 5% | $45 | $169 | -$2,396 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $200 27.8% OTM over spot $156.53 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.32 mid) = $45 credit for the 8d cycle → $169/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $200.32) 98% EV / mo +$78 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.5] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-15 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,225 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $206 @ 70% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.70/sh now → $7.57 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $200 is at/above CC-SS $194.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $200.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $194.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,270 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,271 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $200): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $0 (+$10,271 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,066 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,066, the opportunity cost of earning $169/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.19 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-4,152 (+$6,118 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $182.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 16.6% | 91% | 18% | $204 | $765 | -$1,800 | $3,417 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $182.50 16.6% OTM over spot $156.53 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.48 mid) = $204 credit for the 8d cycle → $765/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $183.97) 92% EV / mo +$251 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.9] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,316 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,737 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $191 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.15/sh now → $6.47 mid-life (likely $5.34–$9.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $187 (overshoots $4.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $12 below CC-SS $194.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $183.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $194.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,270 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,271 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $182.50): -$3,417 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,417 (+$6,854 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,066 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-351, the opportunity cost of earning $765/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.19 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-4,152 (+$6,118 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 8d | 11.8% | 85% | 31% | $438 | $1,642 | -$922 | $5,433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 11.8% OTM over spot $156.53 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.61 mid) = $438 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,642/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $176.62) 87% EV / mo +$515 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.1] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,609 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,370 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $186 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.52/sh now → $6.03 mid-life (likely $5.67–$9.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 676 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $179 (overshoots $3.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $20 below CC-SS $194.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $176.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $194.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,270 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,271 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$5,433 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,433 (+$4,838 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,066 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,367, the opportunity cost of earning $1,642/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.19 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$819, position total $-4,971 (+$5,299 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $170 | 17 Jul | 8d | 8.6% | 79% | 33% | $684 | $2,565 | — | $6,687 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $170 8.6% OTM over spot $156.53 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.46 mid) = $684 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,565/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $172.46) 82% EV / mo +$679 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,027 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,037 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $183 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.11/sh now → $5.74 mid-life (likely $6.15–$9.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 981 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $174 (overshoots $3.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $25 below CC-SS $194.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.28 collected) or spot ≥ $172.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $194.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,270 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,271 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $170): -$6,687 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,687 (+$3,584 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,066 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,621, the opportunity cost of earning $2,565/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.19 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,073, position total $-6,225 (+$4,045 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $160 | 17 Jul | 8d | 2.2% | 60% | 83% | $1,425 | $5,344 | +$2,779 | $8,946 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $160 2.2% OTM over spot $156.53 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $5.20 mid) = $1,425 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,344/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $165.20) 71% EV / mo +$431 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 69% without) · ~13.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,993 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$130 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $188 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.33/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $6.92–$9.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,997 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $164 (overshoots $4.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $35 below CC-SS $194.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.19/sh (~25% of the $4.75 collected) or spot ≥ $165.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $194.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,270 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,271 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $160): -$8,946 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,946 (+$1,325 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,066 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,880, the opportunity cost of earning $5,344/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.19 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,332, position total $-8,484 (+$1,786 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$10,271 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,066
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 3/3 | $2,565 | $2,422 | 79% | 82% | +$679 | -$6,687 | 112.6% | $-6,687 (vs do-nothing $-3,621) |
| $167.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 3/3 | $3,038 | $2,894 | 75% | 79% | +$615 | -$7,311 | 123.1% | $-7,311 (vs do-nothing $-4,245) |
| $165 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 2/3 | $2,400 | $2,627 | 70% | 76% | +$338 | -$5,274 | 88.8% | $-6,296 (vs do-nothing $-3,230) |
| $167.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/3 | $2,670 | $2,527 | 70% | 77% | +$328 | -$6,786 | 114.2% | $-6,786 (vs do-nothing $-3,720) |
| $165 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/3 | $3,000 | $2,857 | 67% | 74% | +$223 | -$7,371 | 124.1% | $-7,371 (vs do-nothing $-4,305) |
| $162.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 2/3 | $2,775 | $3,002 | 65% | 73% | +$164 | -$5,674 | 95.5% | $-6,696 (vs do-nothing $-3,630) |
| $162.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 2/3 | $2,360 | $2,587 | 63% | 72% | +$175 | -$5,234 | 88.1% | $-6,256 (vs do-nothing $-3,190) |
| $160 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 2/3 | $3,562 | $3,789 | 60% | 71% | +$288 | -$5,964 | 100.4% | $-6,986 (vs do-nothing $-3,920) |
| $160 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 2/3 | $2,680 | $2,907 | 59% | 70% | +$114 | -$5,574 | 93.8% | $-6,596 (vs do-nothing $-3,530) |
| $157.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 2/3 | $3,140 | $3,367 | 55% | 68% | +$142 | -$5,844 | 98.4% | $-6,866 (vs do-nothing $-3,800) |
| $157.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 2/3 | $4,200 | $4,427 | 54% | 68% | +$136 | -$6,294 | 106.0% | $-7,316 (vs do-nothing $-4,250) |
| $155 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 2/3 | $3,580 | $3,807 | 50% | 66% | +$98 | -$6,124 | 103.1% | $-7,146 (vs do-nothing $-4,080) |
| $155 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 1/3 | $2,512 | $3,109 | 49% | 66% | +$20 | -$3,287 | 55.3% | $-5,331 (vs do-nothing $-2,265) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.