3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $186.68 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,754/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $145/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,131 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 3 × $172.50 | 79% | $3,086 | $791 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $197.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 23.7% | 98% | 5% | $52 | $223 | -$2,863 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $197.50 23.7% OTM over spot $159.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid) = $52 credit for the 7d cycle → $223/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $197.80) 98% EV / mo +$165 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.3] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $906 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,359 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.97/sh now → $7.05 mid-life (likely $4.85–$8.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 63 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $203 (overshoots $5.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $197.50 is at/above CC-SS $186.68: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $197.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,131 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,131 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $197.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$178 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-178 (+$8,953 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-534 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$356, the opportunity cost of earning $223/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,308 (+$6,823 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $182.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 14.3% | 91% | 18% | $303 | $1,299 | -$1,787 | $951 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $182.50 14.3% OTM over spot $159.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.06 mid) = $303 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,299/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $183.56) 92% EV / mo +$802 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.2] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,715 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,545 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $208 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.71/sh now → $6.16 mid-life (likely $5.01–$8.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 345 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $187 (overshoots $4.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $4 below CC-SS $186.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $183.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,131 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,131 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $182.50): -$951 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-951 (+$8,180 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-534 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-417, the opportunity cost of earning $1,299/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,548 (+$6,583 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $177.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.2% | 86% | 28% | $468 | $2,006 | -$1,080 | $2,286 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $177.50 11.2% OTM over spot $159.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.62 mid) = $468 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,006/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $179.12) 88% EV / mo +$1,014 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,138 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,294 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.31/sh now → $5.87 mid-life (likely $5.31–$8.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 585 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $182 (overshoots $4.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $9 below CC-SS $186.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.56 collected) or spot ≥ $179.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,131 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,131 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $177.50): -$2,286 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,286 (+$6,845 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-534 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,752, the opportunity cost of earning $2,006/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21, position total $-2,569 (+$6,562 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.1% | 79% | 32% | $720 | $3,086 | — | $3,534 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 8.1% OTM over spot $159.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.48 mid) = $720 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,086/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $174.98) 83% EV / mo +$1,224 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-1.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,572 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$959 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.91/sh now → $5.60 mid-life (likely $5.80–$9.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 957 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $14 below CC-SS $186.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.40 collected) or spot ≥ $174.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,131 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,131 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,534 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,534 (+$5,597 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-534 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,000, the opportunity cost of earning $3,086/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,269, position total $-3,817 (+$5,314 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.8% | 59% | 85% | $1,605 | $6,879 | +$3,793 | $5,649 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 1.8% OTM over spot $159.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.50 mid) = $1,605 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,879/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $168.00) 71% EV / mo +$1,433 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-2.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~12.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,131 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$87 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $188 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.15/sh now → $5.06 mid-life (likely $6.79–$9.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,981 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $167 (overshoots $4.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $24 below CC-SS $186.68: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.34/sh (~25% of the $5.35 collected) or spot ≥ $168.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.68, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,131 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,131 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$5,649 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,649 (+$3,482 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-534 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,115, the opportunity cost of earning $6,879/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,384, position total $-5,932 (+$3,199 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.125 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,131 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-534
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 3/3 | $3,086 | $2,940 | 79% | 83% | +$1,224 | -$3,534 | 59.5% | $-3,534 (vs do-nothing $-3,000) |
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.98 | 3/3 | $3,831 | $3,686 | 75% | 80% | +$1,338 | -$4,110 | 69.2% | $-4,110 (vs do-nothing $-3,576) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 3/3 | $3,343 | $3,198 | 70% | 77% | +$1,026 | -$3,444 | 58.0% | $-3,444 (vs do-nothing $-2,910) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 2/3 | $3,129 | $3,498 | 70% | 77% | +$938 | -$3,106 | 52.3% | $-3,284 (vs do-nothing $-2,750) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 3/3 | $2,957 | $2,812 | 70% | 77% | +$753 | -$2,184 | 36.8% | $-2,184 (vs do-nothing $-1,650) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 3/3 | $3,236 | $3,090 | 67% | 75% | +$715 | -$2,739 | 46.1% | $-2,739 (vs do-nothing $-2,205) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/3 | $3,857 | $3,712 | 66% | 75% | +$1,067 | -$3,954 | 66.6% | $-3,954 (vs do-nothing $-3,420) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 2/3 | $3,729 | $4,098 | 65% | 74% | +$886 | -$3,466 | 58.3% | $-3,644 (vs do-nothing $-3,110) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 3/3 | $3,621 | $3,476 | 64% | 74% | +$748 | -$3,219 | 54.2% | $-3,219 (vs do-nothing $-2,685) |
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 2/3 | $2,957 | $3,326 | 62% | 73% | +$731 | -$2,956 | 49.8% | $-3,134 (vs do-nothing $-2,600) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 3/3 | $4,029 | $3,883 | 61% | 72% | +$762 | -$3,684 | 62.0% | $-3,684 (vs do-nothing $-3,150) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 2/3 | $4,586 | $4,955 | 59% | 71% | +$956 | -$3,766 | 63.4% | $-3,944 (vs do-nothing $-3,410) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 2/3 | $3,364 | $3,733 | 58% | 71% | +$719 | -$3,266 | 55.0% | $-3,444 (vs do-nothing $-2,910) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.30 | 2/3 | $2,943 | $3,312 | 57% | 71% | +$476 | -$2,776 | 46.7% | $-2,954 (vs do-nothing $-2,420) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 2/3 | $3,371 | $3,740 | 54% | 69% | +$585 | -$2,976 | 50.1% | $-3,154 (vs do-nothing $-2,620) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 2/3 | $3,836 | $4,205 | 53% | 69% | +$715 | -$3,546 | 59.7% | $-3,724 (vs do-nothing $-3,190) |
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 2/3 | $5,571 | $5,940 | 53% | 68% | +$1,006 | -$4,036 | 67.9% | $-4,214 (vs do-nothing $-3,680) |
| $157.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.70 | 2/3 | $3,629 | $3,998 | 51% | 68% | +$494 | -$3,296 | 55.5% | $-3,474 (vs do-nothing $-2,940) |
| $157.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 2/3 | $4,264 | $4,633 | 49% | 67% | +$609 | -$3,846 | 64.7% | $-4,024 (vs do-nothing $-3,490) |
| $157.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 1/3 | $3,300 | $4,183 | 47% | 66% | +$473 | -$2,148 | 36.2% | $-2,504 (vs do-nothing $-1,970) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.