3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $187.13 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,657/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $145/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,363 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 3 × $172.50 | 80% | $3,304 | $936 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $197.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 23.9% | 98% | 5% | $54 | $231 | -$3,073 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $197.50 23.9% OTM over spot $159.41 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.40 mid) = $54 credit for the 7d cycle → $231/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $197.90) 98% EV / mo +$177 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $953 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,478 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $221 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.83/sh now → $7.66 mid-life (likely $5.11–$9.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 59 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $202 (overshoots $4.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $197.50 is at/above CC-SS $187.13: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $197.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,363 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,363 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $197.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$209 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-209 (+$9,154 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-626 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$418, the opportunity cost of earning $231/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,448 (+$6,915 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $180 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.9% | 90% | 20% | $399 | $1,710 | -$1,594 | $1,739 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $180 12.9% OTM over spot $159.41 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.42 mid) = $399 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,710/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $181.42) 91% EV / mo +$1,116 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.4-2.2] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,356 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,557 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.22/sh now → $6.52 mid-life (likely $5.00–$9.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 448 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $184 (overshoots $3.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $7 below CC-SS $187.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.33 collected) or spot ≥ $181.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,363 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,363 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $180): -$1,739 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,739 (+$7,624 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-626 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,113, the opportunity cost of earning $1,710/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,702 (+$6,661 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $177.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.3% | 87% | 26% | $498 | $2,134 | -$1,170 | $2,390 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $177.50 11.3% OTM over spot $159.41 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.73 mid) = $498 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,134/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $179.24) 89% EV / mo +$1,286 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.2] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,366 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,411 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.00/sh now → $6.36 mid-life (likely $5.70–$9.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 532 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $182 (overshoots $4.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $10 below CC-SS $187.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.66 collected) or spot ≥ $179.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,363 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,363 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $177.50): -$2,390 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,390 (+$6,973 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-626 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,764, the opportunity cost of earning $2,134/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,702 (+$6,661 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.2% | 80% | 30% | $771 | $3,304 | — | $3,617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 8.2% OTM over spot $159.41 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.65 mid) = $771 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,304/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $175.15) 84% EV / mo +$1,570 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,063 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,047 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.57/sh now → $6.06 mid-life (likely $6.03–$10.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 912 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $15 below CC-SS $187.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.57 collected) or spot ≥ $175.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,363 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,363 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,617 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,617 (+$5,746 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-626 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,991, the opportunity cost of earning $3,304/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,218, position total $-3,920 (+$5,443 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.5% | 65% | 71% | $1,380 | $5,914 | +$2,610 | $5,258 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 3.5% OTM over spot $159.41 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.75 mid) = $1,380 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,914/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $169.75) 75% EV / mo +$1,945 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,010 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$304 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.94/sh now → $5.61 mid-life (likely $7.09–$10.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,660 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $169 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $22 below CC-SS $187.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.15/sh (~25% of the $4.60 collected) or spot ≥ $169.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,363 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,363 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$5,258 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,258 (+$4,105 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-626 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,632, the opportunity cost of earning $5,914/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,859, position total $-5,561 (+$3,802 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.126 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,363 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-626
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.57 | 3/3 | $3,304 | $3,159 | 80% | 84% | +$1,570 | -$3,617 | 60.9% | $-3,617 (vs do-nothing $-2,991) |
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 3/3 | $3,921 | $3,776 | 76% | 81% | +$1,610 | -$4,223 | 71.1% | $-4,223 (vs do-nothing $-3,597) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 3/3 | $2,893 | $2,748 | 74% | 80% | +$1,035 | -$3,038 | 51.1% | $-3,038 (vs do-nothing $-2,412) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 2/3 | $3,214 | $3,613 | 71% | 78% | +$1,214 | -$3,176 | 53.5% | $-3,384 (vs do-nothing $-2,758) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 3/3 | $3,343 | $3,198 | 70% | 78% | +$1,094 | -$3,578 | 60.2% | $-3,578 (vs do-nothing $-2,952) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 3/3 | $2,936 | $2,790 | 70% | 77% | +$795 | -$2,333 | 39.3% | $-2,333 (vs do-nothing $-1,707) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 3/3 | $3,279 | $3,133 | 67% | 76% | +$828 | -$2,843 | 47.9% | $-2,843 (vs do-nothing $-2,217) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/3 | $3,857 | $3,712 | 67% | 76% | +$1,147 | -$4,088 | 68.8% | $-4,088 (vs do-nothing $-3,462) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 2/3 | $3,943 | $4,342 | 65% | 75% | +$1,297 | -$3,506 | 59.0% | $-3,714 (vs do-nothing $-3,088) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 3/3 | $3,621 | $3,476 | 64% | 74% | +$824 | -$3,353 | 56.5% | $-3,353 (vs do-nothing $-2,727) |
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 2/3 | $2,957 | $3,356 | 63% | 74% | +$792 | -$3,046 | 51.3% | $-3,254 (vs do-nothing $-2,628) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.50 | 3/3 | $4,071 | $3,926 | 61% | 73% | +$887 | -$3,788 | 63.8% | $-3,788 (vs do-nothing $-3,162) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 2/3 | $4,671 | $5,070 | 60% | 72% | +$1,269 | -$3,836 | 64.6% | $-4,044 (vs do-nothing $-3,418) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.00 | 2/3 | $3,429 | $3,828 | 58% | 72% | +$850 | -$3,326 | 56.0% | $-3,534 (vs do-nothing $-2,908) |
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 2/3 | $2,986 | $3,385 | 58% | 71% | +$577 | -$2,836 | 47.7% | $-3,044 (vs do-nothing $-2,418) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.70 | 2/3 | $3,343 | $3,742 | 54% | 70% | +$618 | -$3,086 | 51.9% | $-3,294 (vs do-nothing $-2,668) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.80 | 2/3 | $3,771 | $4,170 | 54% | 69% | +$722 | -$3,666 | 61.7% | $-3,874 (vs do-nothing $-3,248) |
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 1/3 | $2,957 | $3,900 | 53% | 70% | +$801 | -$2,023 | 34.1% | $-2,440 (vs do-nothing $-1,814) |
| $157.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.90 | 2/3 | $3,686 | $4,085 | 51% | 68% | +$616 | -$3,346 | 56.3% | $-3,554 (vs do-nothing $-2,928) |
| $157.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.40 | 2/3 | $4,457 | $4,856 | 49% | 68% | +$876 | -$3,846 | 64.7% | $-4,054 (vs do-nothing $-3,428) |
| $157.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 1/3 | $3,450 | $4,393 | 47% | 67% | +$757 | -$2,158 | 36.3% | $-2,575 (vs do-nothing $-1,949) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.