3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $187.10 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,786/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $145/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,951 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 3 × $172.50 | 78% | $3,471 | $1,017 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $200 | 17 Jul | 7d | 24.5% | 98% | 4% | $46 | $197 | -$3,274 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $200 24.5% OTM over spot $160.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.27 mid) = $46 credit for the 7d cycle → $197/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $200.27) 98% EV / mo +$149 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.6] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $985 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,405 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $222 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.26/sh now → $7.26 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $200 is at/above CC-SS $187.10: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $200.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,951 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,951 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $200): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$198 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-198 (+$8,753 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-593 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$395, the opportunity cost of earning $197/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,429 (+$6,521 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $182.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.6% | 90% | 20% | $345 | $1,479 | -$1,993 | $1,034 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $182.50 13.6% OTM over spot $160.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.18 mid) = $345 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,479/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $183.68) 91% EV / mo +$869 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.2] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,018 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,511 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $204 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.75/sh now → $6.19 mid-life (likely $5.03–$8.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 359 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $186 (overshoots $3.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $5 below CC-SS $187.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $183.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,951 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,951 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $182.50): -$1,034 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,034 (+$7,917 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-593 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-441, the opportunity cost of earning $1,479/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,691 (+$6,259 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $177.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.5% | 85% | 31% | $528 | $2,263 | -$1,209 | $2,351 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $177.50 10.5% OTM over spot $160.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.81 mid) = $528 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,263/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $179.31) 87% EV / mo +$1,132 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,376 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,241 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.34/sh now → $5.90 mid-life (likely $5.41–$8.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 612 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $181 (overshoots $3.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $10 below CC-SS $187.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.76 collected) or spot ≥ $179.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,951 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,951 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $177.50): -$2,351 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,351 (+$6,600 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-593 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,758, the opportunity cost of earning $2,263/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,691 (+$6,259 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.4% | 78% | 34% | $810 | $3,471 | — | $3,569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 7.4% OTM over spot $160.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.75 mid) = $810 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,471/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $175.25) 82% EV / mo +$1,434 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.5-2.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,027 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$874 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.94/sh now → $5.61 mid-life (likely $5.92–$9.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,020 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $15 below CC-SS $187.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.68/sh (~25% of the $2.70 collected) or spot ≥ $175.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,951 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,951 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,569 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,569 (+$5,382 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-593 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,976, the opportunity cost of earning $3,471/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,179, position total $-3,870 (+$5,080 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.7% | 63% | 77% | $1,470 | $6,300 | +$2,829 | $5,159 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 2.7% OTM over spot $160.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.03 mid) = $1,470 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $170.03) 73% EV / mo +$1,772 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 85% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~9.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,811 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$90 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $204 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.35/sh now → $5.20 mid-life (likely $6.73–$9.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,819 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $169 (overshoots $3.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $22 below CC-SS $187.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.23/sh (~25% of the $4.90 collected) or spot ≥ $170.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,951 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,951 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$5,159 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,159 (+$3,792 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-593 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,566, the opportunity cost of earning $6,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,769, position total $-5,460 (+$3,490 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.126 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,951 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-593
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 3/3 | $3,471 | $3,326 | 78% | 82% | +$1,434 | -$3,569 | 60.1% | $-3,569 (vs do-nothing $-2,976) |
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 3/3 | $4,307 | $4,162 | 73% | 79% | +$1,616 | -$4,124 | 69.4% | $-4,124 (vs do-nothing $-3,531) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/3 | $3,118 | $2,973 | 72% | 79% | +$1,012 | -$2,924 | 49.2% | $-2,924 (vs do-nothing $-2,331) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 3/3 | $3,000 | $2,855 | 69% | 76% | +$673 | -$2,279 | 38.4% | $-2,279 (vs do-nothing $-1,686) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/3 | $3,407 | $3,262 | 68% | 76% | +$872 | -$3,539 | 59.6% | $-3,539 (vs do-nothing $-2,946) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 2/3 | $3,343 | $3,759 | 68% | 76% | +$1,001 | -$3,139 | 52.8% | $-3,337 (vs do-nothing $-2,744) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 3/3 | $3,471 | $3,326 | 66% | 75% | +$816 | -$2,699 | 45.4% | $-2,699 (vs do-nothing $-2,106) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 3/3 | $3,954 | $3,808 | 65% | 74% | +$919 | -$4,034 | 67.9% | $-4,034 (vs do-nothing $-3,441) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 2/3 | $4,200 | $4,616 | 63% | 73% | +$1,181 | -$3,439 | 57.9% | $-3,637 (vs do-nothing $-3,044) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.75 | 3/3 | $3,750 | $3,605 | 63% | 73% | +$727 | -$3,254 | 54.8% | $-3,254 (vs do-nothing $-2,661) |
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 2/3 | $3,107 | $3,523 | 60% | 72% | +$699 | -$2,969 | 50.0% | $-3,167 (vs do-nothing $-2,574) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.00 | 3/3 | $4,286 | $4,140 | 59% | 72% | +$855 | -$3,629 | 61.1% | $-3,629 (vs do-nothing $-3,036) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 2/3 | $5,057 | $5,473 | 57% | 71% | +$1,216 | -$3,739 | 63.0% | $-3,937 (vs do-nothing $-3,344) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 2/3 | $3,071 | $3,488 | 56% | 70% | +$485 | -$2,769 | 46.6% | $-2,967 (vs do-nothing $-2,374) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/3 | $3,493 | $3,909 | 56% | 70% | +$645 | -$3,289 | 55.4% | $-3,487 (vs do-nothing $-2,894) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.25 | 2/3 | $3,500 | $3,916 | 53% | 69% | +$584 | -$2,969 | 50.0% | $-3,167 (vs do-nothing $-2,574) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 2/3 | $4,114 | $4,530 | 52% | 68% | +$768 | -$3,499 | 58.9% | $-3,697 (vs do-nothing $-3,104) |
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 1/3 | $3,021 | $3,999 | 50% | 68% | +$610 | -$2,005 | 33.7% | $-2,400 (vs do-nothing $-1,807) |
| $157.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.10 | 2/3 | $3,743 | $4,159 | 49% | 67% | +$467 | -$3,299 | 55.5% | $-3,497 (vs do-nothing $-2,904) |
| $157.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.90 | 2/3 | $4,671 | $5,088 | 47% | 66% | +$767 | -$3,739 | 63.0% | $-3,937 (vs do-nothing $-3,344) |
| $157.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.35 | 1/3 | $3,579 | $4,556 | 44% | 65% | +$593 | -$2,125 | 35.8% | $-2,520 (vs do-nothing $-1,927) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.