3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $186.09 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,496/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $145/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,220 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 3 × $172.50 | 82% | $2,816 | $712 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $197.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 24.4% | 98% | 5% | $54 | $231 | -$2,584 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $197.50 24.4% OTM over spot $158.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.31 mid) = $54 credit for the 7d cycle → $231/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $197.81) 98% EV / mo +$174 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $803 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,390 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $221 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.21/sh now → $7.22 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $197.50 is at/above CC-SS $186.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $197.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,220 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,220 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $197.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$137 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-137 (+$9,083 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-411 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$274, the opportunity cost of earning $231/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,119 (+$7,101 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $180 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.4% | 91% | 18% | $345 | $1,479 | -$1,337 | $1,482 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $180 13.4% OTM over spot $158.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.19 mid) = $345 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,479/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $181.19) 92% EV / mo +$980 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,236 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,497 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $204 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.68/sh now → $6.14 mid-life (likely $4.55–$9.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 401 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $184 (overshoots $3.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $6 below CC-SS $186.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $181.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,220 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,220 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $180): -$1,482 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,482 (+$7,738 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-411 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,071, the opportunity cost of earning $1,479/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,341 (+$6,879 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.2% | 85% | 30% | $525 | $2,250 | -$566 | $2,802 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 10.2% OTM over spot $158.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.83 mid) = $525 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $176.84) 88% EV / mo +$1,218 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,896 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,229 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.26/sh now → $5.85 mid-life (likely $5.37–$8.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 664 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $178 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $11 below CC-SS $186.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.75 collected) or spot ≥ $176.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,220 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,220 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$2,802 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,802 (+$6,418 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-411 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,391, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$723, position total $-3,064 (+$6,156 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.6% | 82% | 29% | $657 | $2,816 | — | $3,420 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 8.6% OTM over spot $158.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.25 mid) = $657 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,816/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $174.75) 85% EV / mo +$1,370 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,531 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,053 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $199 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.06/sh now → $5.70 mid-life (likely $5.39–$9.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 861 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $14 below CC-SS $186.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.19 collected) or spot ≥ $174.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,220 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,220 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,420 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,420 (+$5,800 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-411 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,009, the opportunity cost of earning $2,816/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,341, position total $-3,682 (+$5,538 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.3% | 61% | 80% | $1,500 | $6,429 | +$3,613 | $5,577 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 2.3% OTM over spot $158.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.12 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,429/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $167.62) 73% EV / mo +$1,749 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~11.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,071 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$43 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $189 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.27/sh now → $5.14 mid-life (likely $6.80–$9.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,865 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $166 (overshoots $3.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $24 below CC-SS $186.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.25/sh (~25% of the $5.00 collected) or spot ≥ $167.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,220 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,220 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$5,577 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,577 (+$3,643 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-411 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,166, the opportunity cost of earning $6,429/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,498, position total $-5,839 (+$3,381 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.126 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,220 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-411
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.19 | 3/3 | $2,816 | $2,670 | 82% | 85% | +$1,370 | -$3,420 | 57.6% | $-3,420 (vs do-nothing $-3,009) |
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 3/3 | $3,484 | $3,339 | 77% | 82% | +$1,494 | -$4,014 | 67.6% | $-4,014 (vs do-nothing $-3,603) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 2/3 | $2,829 | $3,159 | 73% | 79% | +$1,034 | -$3,058 | 51.5% | $-3,195 (vs do-nothing $-2,784) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 3/3 | $3,086 | $2,940 | 71% | 78% | +$962 | -$3,387 | 57.0% | $-3,387 (vs do-nothing $-2,976) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/3 | $2,764 | $2,619 | 71% | 78% | +$709 | -$2,142 | 36.1% | $-2,142 (vs do-nothing $-1,731) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 3/3 | $3,107 | $2,962 | 68% | 76% | +$753 | -$2,652 | 44.7% | $-2,652 (vs do-nothing $-2,241) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 3/3 | $3,568 | $3,423 | 68% | 76% | +$1,001 | -$3,912 | 65.9% | $-3,912 (vs do-nothing $-3,501) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 2/3 | $3,471 | $3,802 | 67% | 76% | +$1,063 | -$3,408 | 57.4% | $-3,545 (vs do-nothing $-3,134) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 3/3 | $3,450 | $3,305 | 65% | 74% | +$760 | -$3,162 | 53.2% | $-3,162 (vs do-nothing $-2,751) |
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 2/3 | $2,764 | $3,095 | 64% | 74% | +$708 | -$2,928 | 49.3% | $-3,065 (vs do-nothing $-2,654) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 3/3 | $3,836 | $3,690 | 62% | 73% | +$771 | -$3,642 | 61.3% | $-3,642 (vs do-nothing $-3,231) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 2/3 | $4,286 | $4,616 | 61% | 73% | +$1,166 | -$3,718 | 62.6% | $-3,855 (vs do-nothing $-3,444) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 2/3 | $3,150 | $3,480 | 59% | 71% | +$696 | -$3,248 | 54.7% | $-3,385 (vs do-nothing $-2,974) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.90 | 2/3 | $2,829 | $3,159 | 59% | 71% | +$507 | -$2,738 | 46.1% | $-2,875 (vs do-nothing $-2,464) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.00 | 2/3 | $3,143 | $3,473 | 55% | 70% | +$514 | -$3,018 | 50.8% | $-3,155 (vs do-nothing $-2,744) |
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 2/3 | $5,143 | $5,473 | 55% | 70% | +$1,160 | -$4,018 | 67.6% | $-4,155 (vs do-nothing $-3,744) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.55 | 2/3 | $3,664 | $3,995 | 55% | 69% | +$756 | -$3,508 | 59.1% | $-3,645 (vs do-nothing $-3,234) |
| $157.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.25 | 2/3 | $3,500 | $3,830 | 52% | 68% | +$534 | -$3,268 | 55.0% | $-3,405 (vs do-nothing $-2,994) |
| $157.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.65 | 2/3 | $4,136 | $4,466 | 50% | 68% | +$714 | -$3,788 | 63.8% | $-3,925 (vs do-nothing $-3,514) |
| $157.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.15 | 1/3 | $3,064 | $3,870 | 49% | 67% | +$559 | -$2,144 | 36.1% | $-2,418 (vs do-nothing $-2,007) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.