3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $187.53 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,304/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $145/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,663 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 3 × $170 | 77% | $3,253 | $967 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $195 | 17 Jul | 7d | 22.7% | 97% | 6% | $39 | $167 | -$3,086 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $195 22.7% OTM over spot $158.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.32 mid) = $39 credit for the 7d cycle → $167/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $195) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $195.31) 97% EV / mo +$54 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-9 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,946 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $216 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.36/sh now → $6.62 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $195 is at/above CC-SS $187.53: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $195.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,663 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $195): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $0 (+$9,663 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-890 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$890, the opportunity cost of earning $167/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,829 (+$6,834 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $182.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 14.8% | 92% | 17% | $249 | $1,067 | -$2,186 | $1,259 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $182.50 14.8% OTM over spot $158.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.03 mid) = $249 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,067/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $183.53) 93% EV / mo +$603 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,627 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,518 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $204 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.33/sh now → $5.89 mid-life (likely $4.76–$7.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 271 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $186 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $5 below CC-SS $187.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $183.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,663 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $182.50): -$1,259 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,259 (+$8,404 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-890 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-369, the opportunity cost of earning $1,067/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,829 (+$6,834 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.1% | 85% | 32% | $486 | $2,083 | -$1,170 | $3,272 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 10.1% OTM over spot $158.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.68 mid) = $486 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,083/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $176.68) 87% EV / mo +$947 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,728 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,156 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $199 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.74/sh now → $5.47 mid-life (likely $5.08–$8.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 649 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $178 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $13 below CC-SS $187.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.62 collected) or spot ≥ $176.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,663 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$3,272 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,272 (+$6,391 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-890 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,382, the opportunity cost of earning $2,083/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$759, position total $-3,588 (+$6,075 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $170 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.0% | 77% | 34% | $759 | $3,253 | — | $4,499 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $170 7.0% OTM over spot $158.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.59 mid) = $759 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,253/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $172.59) 81% EV / mo +$1,205 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,171 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$802 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.36/sh now → $5.20 mid-life (likely $5.67–$8.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,025 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $174 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $18 below CC-SS $187.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.63/sh (~25% of the $2.53 collected) or spot ≥ $172.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,663 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $170): -$4,499 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,499 (+$5,164 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-890 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,609, the opportunity cost of earning $3,253/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,986, position total $-4,815 (+$4,848 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.3% | 61% | 81% | $1,410 | $6,043 | +$2,790 | $6,098 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 2.3% OTM over spot $158.92 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.90 mid) = $1,410 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,043/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $167.40) 72% EV / mo +$1,392 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~12.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,073 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$33 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $199 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.80/sh now → $4.81 mid-life (likely $6.37–$9.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,871 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $166 (overshoots $3.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $25 below CC-SS $187.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.18/sh (~25% of the $4.70 collected) or spot ≥ $167.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $187.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,663 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$6,098 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,098 (+$3,565 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-890 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,208, the opportunity cost of earning $6,043/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,585, position total $-6,414 (+$3,249 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.126 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,663 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-890
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 3/3 | $3,253 | $3,108 | 77% | 81% | +$1,205 | -$4,499 | 75.7% | $-4,499 (vs do-nothing $-3,609) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 3/3 | $3,921 | $3,776 | 72% | 78% | +$1,199 | -$5,093 | 85.7% | $-5,093 (vs do-nothing $-4,203) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 3/3 | $2,893 | $2,748 | 71% | 78% | +$791 | -$3,908 | 65.8% | $-3,908 (vs do-nothing $-3,018) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 3/3 | $2,914 | $2,769 | 68% | 76% | +$570 | -$3,218 | 54.2% | $-3,218 (vs do-nothing $-2,328) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 3/3 | $3,375 | $3,230 | 68% | 76% | +$826 | -$4,433 | 74.6% | $-4,433 (vs do-nothing $-3,543) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 2/3 | $3,343 | $3,639 | 67% | 75% | +$956 | -$3,725 | 62.7% | $-4,022 (vs do-nothing $-3,132) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 3/3 | $3,300 | $3,155 | 65% | 74% | +$615 | -$3,698 | 62.3% | $-3,698 (vs do-nothing $-2,808) |
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 3/3 | $3,954 | $3,808 | 64% | 74% | +$882 | -$4,913 | 82.7% | $-4,913 (vs do-nothing $-4,023) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 3/3 | $3,536 | $3,390 | 62% | 72% | +$471 | -$4,283 | 72.1% | $-4,283 (vs do-nothing $-3,393) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 2/3 | $4,029 | $4,325 | 61% | 72% | +$928 | -$4,065 | 68.4% | $-4,362 (vs do-nothing $-3,472) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.95 | 2/3 | $2,979 | $3,275 | 59% | 71% | +$529 | -$3,615 | 60.9% | $-3,912 (vs do-nothing $-3,022) |
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.55 | 2/3 | $2,729 | $3,025 | 58% | 71% | +$403 | -$3,095 | 52.1% | $-3,392 (vs do-nothing $-2,502) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.00 | 2/3 | $3,143 | $3,439 | 55% | 69% | +$506 | -$3,305 | 55.6% | $-3,602 (vs do-nothing $-2,712) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 2/3 | $4,886 | $5,182 | 55% | 69% | +$914 | -$4,365 | 73.5% | $-4,662 (vs do-nothing $-3,772) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 2/3 | $3,536 | $3,832 | 55% | 69% | +$629 | -$3,855 | 64.9% | $-4,152 (vs do-nothing $-3,262) |
| $157.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.40 | 2/3 | $3,257 | $3,553 | 52% | 68% | +$279 | -$3,725 | 62.7% | $-4,022 (vs do-nothing $-3,132) |
| $157.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 2/3 | $4,029 | $4,325 | 50% | 67% | +$606 | -$4,125 | 69.4% | $-4,422 (vs do-nothing $-3,532) |
| $157.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 1/3 | $2,957 | $3,695 | 48% | 66% | +$451 | -$2,313 | 38.9% | $-2,906 (vs do-nothing $-2,016) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.