3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $189.59 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,111/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $145/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,663 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 3 × $172.50 | 79% | $2,610 | $688 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $200 | 17 Jul | 7d | 24.8% | 99% | 2% | $46 | $197 | -$2,413 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $200 24.8% OTM over spot $160.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $46 credit for the 7d cycle → $197/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $200.24) 99% EV / mo +$185 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.6] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $948 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,174 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.62/sh now → $6.10 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $200 is at/above CC-SS $189.59: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $200.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,896 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $200): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$503 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-271 (+$9,392 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,278 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,007, the opportunity cost of earning $197/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,089 (+$6,574 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $182.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.8% | 91% | 19% | $249 | $1,067 | -$1,543 | $1,879 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $182.50 13.8% OTM over spot $160.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.03 mid) = $249 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,067/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $183.53) 91% EV / mo +$481 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.1] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,330 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,309 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $205 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.34/sh now → $5.19 mid-life (likely $4.17–$7.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 329 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $186 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $7 below CC-SS $189.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $183.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,896 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $182.50): -$1,879 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,647 (+$8,016 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,278 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-369, the opportunity cost of earning $1,067/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,295 (+$6,368 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.2% | 82% | 36% | $486 | $2,083 | -$527 | $3,892 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 9.2% OTM over spot $160.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.68 mid) = $486 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,083/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $176.68) 85% EV / mo +$687 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.7] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,606 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$962 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.82/sh now → $4.83 mid-life (likely $4.66–$7.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 759 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $179 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $15 below CC-SS $189.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.62 collected) or spot ≥ $176.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,896 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$3,892 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,660 (+$6,003 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,278 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,382, the opportunity cost of earning $2,083/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$759, position total $-4,054 (+$5,609 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.6% | 79% | 32% | $609 | $2,610 | — | $4,519 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 7.6% OTM over spot $160.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.09 mid) = $609 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $174.59) 82% EV / mo +$749 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,345 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$803 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 85% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.65/sh now → $4.71 mid-life (likely $4.81–$7.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 953 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $17 below CC-SS $189.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.03 collected) or spot ≥ $174.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,896 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$4,519 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,287 (+$5,376 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,278 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,009, the opportunity cost of earning $2,610/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,386, position total $-4,681 (+$4,982 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.4% | 58% | 88% | $1,410 | $6,043 | +$3,433 | $6,718 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 1.4% OTM over spot $160.30 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.90 mid) = $1,410 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,043/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $167.40) 69% EV / mo +$632 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~15.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,848 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$137 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.00/sh now → $4.24 mid-life (likely $5.78–$8.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,053 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $166 (overshoots $3.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $27 below CC-SS $189.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.18/sh (~25% of the $4.70 collected) or spot ≥ $167.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,663 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,896 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$6,718 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,486 (+$3,177 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,278 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,208, the opportunity cost of earning $6,043/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,585, position total $-6,880 (+$2,783 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.126 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,896 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,278
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 3/3 | $2,610 | $2,465 | 79% | 82% | +$749 | -$4,519 | 76.1% | $-4,287 (vs do-nothing $-3,009) |
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 3/3 | $3,253 | $3,108 | 74% | 79% | +$787 | -$5,119 | 86.2% | $-4,887 (vs do-nothing $-3,609) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 2/3 | $2,614 | $2,910 | 69% | 76% | +$453 | -$3,809 | 64.1% | $-4,080 (vs do-nothing $-2,802) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 3/3 | $2,893 | $2,748 | 69% | 76% | +$514 | -$4,528 | 76.2% | $-4,296 (vs do-nothing $-3,018) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 3/3 | $2,593 | $2,448 | 69% | 76% | +$353 | -$3,313 | 55.8% | $-3,081 (vs do-nothing $-1,803) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 3/3 | $2,914 | $2,769 | 66% | 74% | +$351 | -$3,838 | 64.6% | $-3,606 (vs do-nothing $-2,328) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 3/3 | $3,375 | $3,230 | 65% | 74% | +$508 | -$5,053 | 85.1% | $-4,821 (vs do-nothing $-3,543) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 2/3 | $3,343 | $3,639 | 64% | 72% | +$533 | -$4,139 | 69.7% | $-4,410 (vs do-nothing $-3,132) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 3/3 | $3,300 | $3,155 | 63% | 72% | +$375 | -$4,318 | 72.7% | $-4,086 (vs do-nothing $-2,808) |
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 2/3 | $2,636 | $2,932 | 61% | 71% | +$347 | -$3,689 | 62.1% | $-3,960 (vs do-nothing $-2,682) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 3/3 | $3,536 | $3,390 | 60% | 71% | +$208 | -$4,903 | 82.5% | $-4,671 (vs do-nothing $-3,393) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 2/3 | $4,029 | $4,325 | 58% | 69% | +$421 | -$4,479 | 75.4% | $-4,750 (vs do-nothing $-3,472) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.95 | 2/3 | $2,979 | $3,275 | 57% | 69% | +$257 | -$4,029 | 67.8% | $-4,300 (vs do-nothing $-3,022) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.55 | 2/3 | $2,729 | $3,025 | 57% | 69% | +$213 | -$3,509 | 59.1% | $-3,780 (vs do-nothing $-2,502) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.00 | 2/3 | $3,143 | $3,439 | 53% | 68% | +$300 | -$3,719 | 62.6% | $-3,990 (vs do-nothing $-2,712) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 2/3 | $3,536 | $3,832 | 52% | 67% | +$325 | -$4,269 | 71.9% | $-4,540 (vs do-nothing $-3,262) |
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 2/3 | $4,886 | $5,182 | 51% | 66% | +$318 | -$4,779 | 80.5% | $-5,050 (vs do-nothing $-3,772) |
| $157.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.40 | 2/3 | $3,257 | $3,553 | 50% | 66% | +$56 | -$4,139 | 69.7% | $-4,410 (vs do-nothing $-3,132) |
| $157.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 2/3 | $4,029 | $4,325 | 48% | 65% | +$269 | -$4,539 | 76.4% | $-4,810 (vs do-nothing $-3,532) |
| $157.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 1/3 | $2,957 | $3,695 | 45% | 63% | +$107 | -$2,519 | 42.4% | $-3,294 (vs do-nothing $-2,016) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.