3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $185.90 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,271/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $114/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,824 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 3 × $175 | 79% | $2,661 | $587 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $202.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 24.9% | 98% | 5% | $36 | $154 | -$2,507 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $202.50 24.9% OTM over spot $162.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.34 mid) = $36 credit for the 7d cycle → $154/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $202.84) 98% EV / mo +$91 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.6] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $697 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,285 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.34/sh now → $6.60 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $202.50 is at/above CC-SS $185.90: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $202.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,824 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,998 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $202.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$77 Total Position P&L @ SS: $97 (+$7,921 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$154, the opportunity cost of earning $154/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-1,770 (+$6,054 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $185 | 17 Jul | 7d | 14.1% | 90% | 20% | $273 | $1,170 | -$1,491 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $185 14.1% OTM over spot $162.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.95 mid) = $273 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,170/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $185.95) 91% EV / mo +$539 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.1] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 86% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,026 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,420 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $208 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.98/sh now → $5.64 mid-life (likely $4.61–$7.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $189 (overshoots $3.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $185 is at/above CC-SS $185.90: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $185.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,824 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,998 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $185): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $174 (+$7,998 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$231, the opportunity cost of earning $1,170/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,033 (+$5,791 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $180 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.0% | 86% | 30% | $420 | $1,800 | -$861 | $1,350 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $180 11.0% OTM over spot $162.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.45 mid) = $420 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $181.45) 87% EV / mo +$696 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-1.8] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,637 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,195 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $208 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.61/sh now → $5.38 mid-life (likely $5.00–$8.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 630 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $184 (overshoots $3.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $6 below CC-SS $185.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $181.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,824 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,998 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $180): -$1,350 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,176 (+$6,648 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,119, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,033 (+$5,791 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.9% | 79% | 31% | $621 | $2,661 | — | $2,649 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 7.9% OTM over spot $162.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.21 mid) = $621 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,661/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $177.22) 82% EV / mo +$744 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,601 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$917 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.25/sh now → $5.13 mid-life (likely $5.33–$8.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 944 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $179 (overshoots $3.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $11 below CC-SS $185.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.07 collected) or spot ≥ $177.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,824 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,998 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$2,649 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,475 (+$5,349 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,418, the opportunity cost of earning $2,661/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$684, position total $-2,717 (+$5,107 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.8% | 59% | 85% | $1,440 | $6,171 | +$3,510 | $4,830 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 1.8% OTM over spot $162.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.97 mid) = $1,440 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,171/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $169.97) 70% EV / mo +$826 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 85% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 83% without) · ~10.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,807 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$49 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.55/sh now → $4.64 mid-life (likely $6.22–$9.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,013 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $169 (overshoots $3.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $21 below CC-SS $185.90: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.20/sh (~25% of the $4.80 collected) or spot ≥ $169.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.90, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,824 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,998 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$4,830 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,656 (+$3,168 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-57 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,599, the opportunity cost of earning $6,171/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,865, position total $-4,898 (+$2,926 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.123 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,998 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-57
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 3/3 | $2,661 | $2,547 | 79% | 82% | +$744 | -$2,649 | 44.6% | $-2,475 (vs do-nothing $-2,418) |
| $172.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 3/3 | $3,343 | $3,228 | 75% | 79% | +$833 | -$3,240 | 54.5% | $-3,066 (vs do-nothing $-3,009) |
| $175 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 3/3 | $2,668 | $2,553 | 73% | 79% | +$640 | -$2,025 | 34.1% | $-1,851 (vs do-nothing $-1,794) |
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 2/3 | $2,743 | $3,192 | 70% | 76% | +$569 | -$2,540 | 42.8% | $-2,443 (vs do-nothing $-2,386) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 3/3 | $3,086 | $2,971 | 70% | 76% | +$653 | -$2,580 | 43.4% | $-2,406 (vs do-nothing $-2,349) |
| $175 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/3 | $2,786 | $2,671 | 70% | 77% | +$589 | -$1,320 | 22.2% | $-1,146 (vs do-nothing $-1,089) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 3/3 | $3,171 | $3,057 | 67% | 75% | +$660 | -$1,800 | 30.3% | $-1,626 (vs do-nothing $-1,569) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 3/3 | $3,568 | $3,453 | 66% | 74% | +$664 | -$3,105 | 52.3% | $-2,931 (vs do-nothing $-2,874) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 2/3 | $3,343 | $3,792 | 65% | 73% | +$545 | -$2,900 | 48.8% | $-2,803 (vs do-nothing $-2,746) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 3/3 | $3,536 | $3,421 | 64% | 74% | +$671 | -$2,295 | 38.6% | $-2,121 (vs do-nothing $-2,064) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 2/3 | $2,764 | $3,213 | 62% | 72% | +$466 | -$2,390 | 40.2% | $-2,293 (vs do-nothing $-2,236) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.05 | 3/3 | $3,879 | $3,764 | 61% | 72% | +$620 | -$2,805 | 47.2% | $-2,631 (vs do-nothing $-2,574) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 2/3 | $4,114 | $4,563 | 59% | 70% | +$551 | -$3,220 | 54.2% | $-3,123 (vs do-nothing $-3,066) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 2/3 | $3,171 | $3,621 | 58% | 70% | +$457 | -$2,700 | 45.5% | $-2,603 (vs do-nothing $-2,546) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.10 | 2/3 | $2,886 | $3,335 | 57% | 70% | +$423 | -$2,160 | 36.4% | $-2,063 (vs do-nothing $-2,006) |
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.90 | 2/3 | $3,114 | $3,563 | 54% | 69% | +$331 | -$2,500 | 42.1% | $-2,403 (vs do-nothing $-2,346) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.20 | 2/3 | $3,514 | $3,963 | 53% | 68% | +$329 | -$3,040 | 51.2% | $-2,943 (vs do-nothing $-2,886) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 2/3 | $4,886 | $5,335 | 53% | 67% | +$401 | -$3,540 | 59.6% | $-3,443 (vs do-nothing $-3,386) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.15 | 2/3 | $3,471 | $3,921 | 51% | 67% | +$338 | -$2,750 | 46.3% | $-2,653 (vs do-nothing $-2,596) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.45 | 2/3 | $4,050 | $4,499 | 49% | 66% | +$335 | -$3,290 | 55.4% | $-3,193 (vs do-nothing $-3,136) |
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 1/3 | $2,936 | $3,948 | 46% | 64% | +$150 | -$1,905 | 32.1% | $-1,885 (vs do-nothing $-1,828) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.