3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $186.08 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,336/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $114/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,019 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 3 × $172.50 | 76% | $3,227 | $720 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $205 | 17 Jul | 7d | 26.7% | 99% | 2% | $30 | $129 | -$3,099 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $205 26.7% OTM over spot $161.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $30 credit for the 7d cycle → $129/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $205.18) 99% EV / mo +$116 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.3] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $778 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,302 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $228 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.42/sh now → $6.66 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $205 is at/above CC-SS $186.08: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $205.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,019 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,210 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $205): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$110 Total Position P&L @ SS: $82 (+$8,101 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-138 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$219, the opportunity cost of earning $129/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-1,831 (+$6,188 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $185 | 17 Jul | 7d | 14.4% | 91% | 18% | $243 | $1,041 | -$2,186 | $80 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $185 14.4% OTM over spot $161.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.88 mid) = $243 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,041/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $185.88) 92% EV / mo +$506 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 86% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $996 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,432 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $208 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.89/sh now → $5.58 mid-life (likely $4.59–$8.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 345 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $189 (overshoots $4.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $1 below CC-SS $186.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $185.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,019 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,210 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $185): -$80 Total Position P&L @ SS: $111 (+$8,130 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-138 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$249, the opportunity cost of earning $1,041/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,079 (+$5,940 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $177.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.7% | 84% | 34% | $477 | $2,044 | -$1,183 | $2,096 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $177.50 9.7% OTM over spot $161.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.68 mid) = $477 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,044/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $179.18) 86% EV / mo +$767 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-1.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,811 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,084 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $206 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.36/sh now → $5.20 mid-life (likely $4.96–$8.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 729 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $182 (overshoots $4.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $9 below CC-SS $186.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.59 collected) or spot ≥ $179.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,019 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,210 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $177.50): -$2,096 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,905 (+$6,114 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,767, the opportunity cost of earning $2,044/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$78, position total $-2,157 (+$5,862 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.6% | 76% | 39% | $753 | $3,227 | — | $3,320 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 6.6% OTM over spot $161.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.58 mid) = $753 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,227/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $175.09) 80% EV / mo +$981 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,529 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$734 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $206 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.01/sh now → $4.96 mid-life (likely $5.50–$8.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,180 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $14 below CC-SS $186.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.63/sh (~25% of the $2.51 collected) or spot ≥ $175.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,019 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,210 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,320 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,129 (+$4,890 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,991, the opportunity cost of earning $3,227/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,302, position total $-3,381 (+$4,638 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.0% | 60% | 84% | $1,410 | $6,043 | +$2,816 | $4,913 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 2.0% OTM over spot $161.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.83 mid) = $1,410 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,043/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $169.82) 70% EV / mo +$696 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~10.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,763 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$30 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.50/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $6.10–$8.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,966 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $169 (overshoots $4.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $21 below CC-SS $186.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.18/sh (~25% of the $4.70 collected) or spot ≥ $169.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,019 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,210 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$4,913 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,722 (+$3,297 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-138 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,584, the opportunity cost of earning $6,043/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,895, position total $-4,974 (+$3,045 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.125 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,210 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-138
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.51 | 3/3 | $3,227 | $3,113 | 76% | 80% | +$981 | -$3,320 | 55.9% | $-3,129 (vs do-nothing $-2,991) |
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 3/3 | $3,986 | $3,871 | 71% | 77% | +$1,039 | -$3,893 | 65.5% | $-3,702 (vs do-nothing $-3,564) |
| $175 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/3 | $2,786 | $2,671 | 70% | 77% | +$653 | -$1,373 | 23.1% | $-1,182 (vs do-nothing $-1,044) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 3/3 | $3,054 | $2,939 | 70% | 76% | +$562 | -$2,648 | 44.6% | $-2,457 (vs do-nothing $-2,319) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 3/3 | $3,150 | $3,036 | 67% | 76% | +$709 | -$1,868 | 31.4% | $-1,677 (vs do-nothing $-1,539) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/3 | $3,471 | $3,357 | 66% | 74% | +$499 | -$3,203 | 53.9% | $-3,012 (vs do-nothing $-2,874) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 2/3 | $3,343 | $3,760 | 65% | 73% | +$548 | -$2,935 | 49.4% | $-2,854 (vs do-nothing $-2,716) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.30 | 3/3 | $3,557 | $3,443 | 64% | 74% | +$770 | -$2,333 | 39.3% | $-2,142 (vs do-nothing $-2,004) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 3/3 | $3,986 | $3,871 | 62% | 72% | +$464 | -$3,713 | 62.5% | $-3,522 (vs do-nothing $-3,384) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.10 | 3/3 | $3,900 | $3,786 | 61% | 73% | +$806 | -$2,843 | 47.9% | $-2,652 (vs do-nothing $-2,514) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 2/3 | $4,029 | $4,446 | 60% | 70% | +$464 | -$3,275 | 55.1% | $-3,194 (vs do-nothing $-3,056) |
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 2/3 | $3,107 | $3,524 | 58% | 70% | +$344 | -$2,765 | 46.6% | $-2,684 (vs do-nothing $-2,546) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.00 | 2/3 | $2,857 | $3,274 | 58% | 71% | +$510 | -$2,215 | 37.3% | $-2,134 (vs do-nothing $-1,996) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.15 | 2/3 | $3,186 | $3,603 | 55% | 69% | +$526 | -$2,485 | 41.8% | $-2,404 (vs do-nothing $-2,266) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.30 | 2/3 | $3,557 | $3,974 | 54% | 68% | +$327 | -$3,055 | 51.4% | $-2,974 (vs do-nothing $-2,836) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 2/3 | $4,929 | $5,346 | 54% | 67% | +$450 | -$3,565 | 60.0% | $-3,484 (vs do-nothing $-3,346) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.35 | 2/3 | $3,529 | $3,946 | 51% | 68% | +$527 | -$2,745 | 46.2% | $-2,664 (vs do-nothing $-2,526) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 2/3 | $4,114 | $4,531 | 50% | 66% | +$364 | -$3,295 | 55.5% | $-3,214 (vs do-nothing $-3,076) |
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 1/3 | $3,000 | $3,948 | 48% | 65% | +$228 | -$1,908 | 32.1% | $-1,936 (vs do-nothing $-1,798) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.