3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $186.24 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,529/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $114/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,087 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.44 | $432 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 3 × $172.50 | 76% | $3,394 | $835 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $205 | 17 Jul | 7d | 26.8% | 98% | 3% | $28 | $120 | -$3,274 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $205 26.8% OTM over spot $161.72 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $28 credit for the 7d cycle → $120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $205.17) 98% EV / mo +$85 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-2.1] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $728 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,442 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $226 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.39/sh now → $7.35 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $205 is at/above CC-SS $186.24: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $205.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,087 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,277 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $205): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$109 Total Position P&L @ SS: $82 (+$8,168 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-136 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$218, the opportunity cost of earning $120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-1,870 (+$6,217 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $182.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.9% | 90% | 20% | $318 | $1,363 | -$2,031 | $804 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $182.50 12.9% OTM over spot $161.72 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.14 mid) = $318 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,363/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $183.63) 91% EV / mo +$803 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-1.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,422 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,479 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $206 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.47/sh now → $5.99 mid-life (likely $4.83–$8.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 376 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $186 (overshoots $3.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $4 below CC-SS $186.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $183.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,087 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,277 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $182.50): -$804 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-613 (+$7,473 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-136 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-477, the opportunity cost of earning $1,363/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,135 (+$5,952 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $177.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.8% | 84% | 32% | $510 | $2,186 | -$1,209 | $2,112 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $177.50 9.8% OTM over spot $161.72 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.79 mid) = $510 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,186/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $179.28) 87% EV / mo +$1,048 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-1.9] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,157 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,202 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.07/sh now → $5.71 mid-life (likely $5.38–$8.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $181 (overshoots $3.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $9 below CC-SS $186.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.70 collected) or spot ≥ $179.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,087 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,277 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $177.50): -$2,112 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,921 (+$6,165 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-136 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,785, the opportunity cost of earning $2,186/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45, position total $-2,180 (+$5,907 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.7% | 76% | 37% | $792 | $3,394 | — | $3,330 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 6.7% OTM over spot $161.72 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.75 mid) = $792 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $175.25) 81% EV / mo +$1,235 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,703 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$837 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.68/sh now → $5.43 mid-life (likely $5.89–$8.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,100 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $14 below CC-SS $186.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.64 collected) or spot ≥ $175.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,087 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,277 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,330 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,139 (+$4,947 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-136 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,003, the opportunity cost of earning $3,394/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,263, position total $-3,398 (+$4,689 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.0% | 60% | 83% | $1,500 | $6,429 | +$3,034 | $4,872 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 2.0% OTM over spot $161.72 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.10 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,429/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $170.10) 72% EV / mo +$1,471 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-1.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~10.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,967 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.11/sh now → $5.03 mid-life (likely $6.63–$9.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,937 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $169 (overshoots $3.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $21 below CC-SS $186.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.25/sh (~25% of the $5.00 collected) or spot ≥ $170.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,087 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,277 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$4,872 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,681 (+$3,405 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-136 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,545, the opportunity cost of earning $6,429/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,805, position total $-4,940 (+$3,147 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.125 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,277 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-136
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 3/3 | $3,394 | $3,280 | 76% | 81% | +$1,235 | -$3,330 | 56.1% | $-3,139 (vs do-nothing $-3,003) |
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 2/3 | $2,829 | $3,282 | 71% | 78% | +$896 | -$2,588 | 43.6% | $-2,506 (vs do-nothing $-2,370) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 3/3 | $3,086 | $2,971 | 71% | 77% | +$820 | -$2,682 | 45.2% | $-2,491 (vs do-nothing $-2,355) |
| $175 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 3/3 | $2,871 | $2,757 | 70% | 77% | +$724 | -$1,362 | 22.9% | $-1,171 (vs do-nothing $-1,035) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 3/3 | $3,214 | $3,100 | 67% | 76% | +$756 | -$1,872 | 31.5% | $-1,681 (vs do-nothing $-1,545) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 3/3 | $3,664 | $3,550 | 67% | 75% | +$944 | -$3,162 | 53.2% | $-2,971 (vs do-nothing $-2,835) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 2/3 | $3,471 | $3,925 | 66% | 75% | +$923 | -$2,938 | 49.5% | $-2,856 (vs do-nothing $-2,720) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.40 | 3/3 | $3,600 | $3,486 | 64% | 74% | +$794 | -$2,352 | 39.6% | $-2,161 (vs do-nothing $-2,025) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 2/3 | $2,786 | $3,239 | 63% | 73% | +$618 | -$2,448 | 41.2% | $-2,366 (vs do-nothing $-2,230) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.35 | 3/3 | $4,007 | $3,893 | 61% | 73% | +$814 | -$2,817 | 47.4% | $-2,626 (vs do-nothing $-2,490) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 2/3 | $4,286 | $4,739 | 60% | 72% | +$981 | -$3,248 | 54.7% | $-3,166 (vs do-nothing $-3,030) |
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 2/3 | $3,214 | $3,668 | 59% | 71% | +$639 | -$2,748 | 46.3% | $-2,666 (vs do-nothing $-2,530) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.35 | 2/3 | $2,957 | $3,411 | 58% | 71% | +$542 | -$2,178 | 36.7% | $-2,096 (vs do-nothing $-1,960) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.50 | 2/3 | $3,286 | $3,739 | 55% | 69% | +$556 | -$2,448 | 41.2% | $-2,366 (vs do-nothing $-2,230) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 2/3 | $3,686 | $4,139 | 54% | 69% | +$645 | -$3,028 | 51.0% | $-2,946 (vs do-nothing $-2,810) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 2/3 | $5,143 | $5,596 | 54% | 69% | +$986 | -$3,548 | 59.7% | $-3,466 (vs do-nothing $-3,330) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.65 | 2/3 | $3,614 | $4,068 | 51% | 68% | +$539 | -$2,718 | 45.8% | $-2,636 (vs do-nothing $-2,500) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.90 | 2/3 | $4,243 | $4,696 | 50% | 67% | +$676 | -$3,268 | 55.0% | $-3,186 (vs do-nothing $-3,050) |
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 1/3 | $3,171 | $4,193 | 47% | 66% | +$564 | -$1,884 | 31.7% | $-1,911 (vs do-nothing $-1,775) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.