3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $186.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,905/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $143/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,045 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 3 × $172.50 | 81% | $2,955 | $885 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $200 | 17 Jul | 6d | 24.9% | 99% | 3% | $30 | $150 | -$2,805 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $200 24.9% OTM over spot $160.07 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.16 mid) = $30 credit for the 6d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $200.16) 99% EV / mo +$125 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.9] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $667 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,292 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.34/sh now → $6.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $200 is at/above CC-SS $186.18: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $200.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,045 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,814 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $200): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$168 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-400 (+$8,645 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-737 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$337, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,338 (+$6,707 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $180 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.5% | 92% | 17% | $291 | $1,455 | -$1,500 | $1,564 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $180 12.5% OTM over spot $160.07 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.02 mid) = $291 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,455/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $181.01) 93% EV / mo +$1,001 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.5] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,855 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,354 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $205 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.75/sh now → $5.48 mid-life (likely $4.30–$8.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 340 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $183 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $6 below CC-SS $186.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $181.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,045 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,814 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $180): -$1,564 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,796 (+$7,249 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-737 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,059, the opportunity cost of earning $1,455/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,538 (+$6,507 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 6d | 9.3% | 85% | 30% | $462 | $2,310 | -$645 | $2,893 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 9.3% OTM over spot $160.07 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.61 mid) = $462 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,310/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $176.61) 87% EV / mo +$1,183 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,111 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,103 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.38/sh now → $5.22 mid-life (likely $5.06–$8.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 592 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $179 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $11 below CC-SS $186.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.54 collected) or spot ≥ $176.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,045 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,814 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$2,893 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,125 (+$5,920 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-737 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,388, the opportunity cost of earning $2,310/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$843, position total $-3,381 (+$5,664 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 7.8% | 81% | 27% | $591 | $2,955 | — | $3,514 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 7.8% OTM over spot $160.07 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.03 mid) = $591 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,955/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $174.53) 85% EV / mo +$1,370 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.4-2.3] median · 79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,796 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$935 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.19/sh now → $5.09 mid-life (likely $4.85–$8.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 814 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $176 (overshoots $3.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $14 below CC-SS $186.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.97 collected) or spot ≥ $174.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,045 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,814 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,514 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,746 (+$5,299 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-737 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,009, the opportunity cost of earning $2,955/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,464, position total $-4,002 (+$5,043 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.1% | 65% | 72% | $1,200 | $6,000 | +$3,045 | $5,155 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 3.1% OTM over spot $160.07 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.10 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 6d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $169.10) 75% EV / mo +$1,910 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 83% without) · ~9.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,382 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$212 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.65/sh now → $4.71 mid-life (likely $5.94–$9.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,662 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $169 (overshoots $3.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $21 below CC-SS $186.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $169.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,045 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,814 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$5,155 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,387 (+$3,658 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-737 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,650, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,105, position total $-5,643 (+$3,402 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.125 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,814 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-737
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.97 | 3/3 | $2,955 | $2,812 | 81% | 85% | +$1,370 | -$3,514 | 59.2% | $-3,746 (vs do-nothing $-3,009) |
| $170 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 3/3 | $3,795 | $3,652 | 77% | 82% | +$1,643 | -$4,096 | 69.0% | $-4,328 (vs do-nothing $-3,591) |
| $167.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 2/3 | $3,200 | $3,518 | 71% | 78% | +$1,182 | -$3,097 | 52.1% | $-3,497 (vs do-nothing $-2,760) |
| $170 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 3/3 | $3,254 | $3,110 | 70% | 78% | +$985 | -$3,445 | 58.0% | $-3,677 (vs do-nothing $-2,940) |
| $170 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 3/3 | $3,307 | $3,164 | 67% | 75% | +$828 | -$2,650 | 44.6% | $-2,882 (vs do-nothing $-2,145) |
| $167.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 3/3 | $3,808 | $3,664 | 66% | 75% | +$1,036 | -$3,955 | 66.6% | $-4,187 (vs do-nothing $-3,450) |
| $165 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 2/3 | $4,000 | $4,318 | 65% | 75% | +$1,273 | -$3,437 | 57.9% | $-3,837 (vs do-nothing $-3,100) |
| $167.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 3/3 | $3,712 | $3,569 | 64% | 74% | +$859 | -$3,130 | 52.7% | $-3,362 (vs do-nothing $-2,625) |
| $165 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 2/3 | $2,954 | $3,272 | 62% | 73% | +$712 | -$2,957 | 49.8% | $-3,357 (vs do-nothing $-2,620) |
| $165 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.20 | 3/3 | $4,140 | $3,997 | 60% | 72% | +$868 | -$3,595 | 60.5% | $-3,827 (vs do-nothing $-3,090) |
| $162.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 2/3 | $4,950 | $5,268 | 59% | 72% | +$1,328 | -$3,747 | 63.1% | $-4,147 (vs do-nothing $-3,410) |
| $162.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 2/3 | $3,438 | $3,757 | 57% | 71% | +$738 | -$3,247 | 54.7% | $-3,647 (vs do-nothing $-2,910) |
| $162.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.25 | 2/3 | $3,075 | $3,393 | 57% | 70% | +$583 | -$2,687 | 45.2% | $-3,087 (vs do-nothing $-2,350) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.35 | 2/3 | $3,405 | $3,723 | 53% | 69% | +$569 | -$2,967 | 49.9% | $-3,367 (vs do-nothing $-2,630) |
| $160 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 2/3 | $3,969 | $4,287 | 52% | 68% | +$743 | -$3,517 | 59.2% | $-3,917 (vs do-nothing $-3,180) |
| $160 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 1/3 | $3,050 | $3,830 | 52% | 68% | +$688 | -$2,008 | 33.8% | $-2,577 (vs do-nothing $-1,840) |
| $157.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.55 | 2/3 | $3,765 | $4,083 | 50% | 67% | +$553 | -$3,227 | 54.3% | $-3,627 (vs do-nothing $-2,890) |
| $157.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 2/3 | $4,546 | $4,864 | 48% | 66% | +$725 | -$3,767 | 63.4% | $-4,167 (vs do-nothing $-3,430) |
| $157.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 1/3 | $3,675 | $4,455 | 44% | 65% | +$654 | -$2,133 | 35.9% | $-2,702 (vs do-nothing $-1,965) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.