3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $186.10 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,642/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $143/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,292 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 3 × $170 | 78% | $3,555 | $1,193 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $205 | 17 Jul | 6d | 28.7% | 99% | 2% | $33 | $165 | -$3,390 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $205 28.7% OTM over spot $159.25 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.14 mid) = $33 credit for the 6d cycle → $165/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $205.13) 99% EV / mo +$141 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.2] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-10 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,027 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $233 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.71/sh now → $6.87 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $205 is at/above CC-SS $186.10: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $205.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,292 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,060 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $205): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-233 (+$9,060 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-688 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$455, the opportunity cost of earning $165/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,561 (+$6,731 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $180 | 17 Jul | 6d | 13.0% | 91% | 18% | $273 | $1,365 | -$2,190 | $1,556 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $180 13.0% OTM over spot $159.25 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.95 mid) = $273 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,365/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $180.94) 92% EV / mo +$846 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.0] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,526 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,360 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.70/sh now → $5.44 mid-life (likely $4.62–$7.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 285 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $184 (overshoots $3.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $6 below CC-SS $186.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $180.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,292 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,060 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $180): -$1,556 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,789 (+$7,503 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-688 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,101, the opportunity cost of earning $1,365/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,561 (+$6,731 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 6d | 9.9% | 86% | 28% | $438 | $2,190 | -$1,365 | $2,891 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 9.9% OTM over spot $159.25 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.52 mid) = $438 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,190/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $176.51) 88% EV / mo +$1,167 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,172 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,116 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.32/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $4.55–$7.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 529 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $178 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $11 below CC-SS $186.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $176.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,292 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,060 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$2,891 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,124 (+$6,168 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-688 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,436, the opportunity cost of earning $2,190/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$822, position total $-3,383 (+$5,909 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $170 | 17 Jul | 6d | 6.7% | 78% | 32% | $711 | $3,555 | — | $4,118 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $170 6.7% OTM over spot $159.25 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.42 mid) = $711 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,555/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $172.42) 83% EV / mo +$1,583 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,283 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$765 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.96/sh now → $4.92 mid-life (likely $5.17–$8.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 960 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $173 (overshoots $3.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $16 below CC-SS $186.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.37 collected) or spot ≥ $172.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,292 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,060 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $170): -$4,118 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,351 (+$4,941 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-688 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,663, the opportunity cost of earning $3,555/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,049, position total $-4,610 (+$4,682 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.0% | 61% | 81% | $1,335 | $6,675 | +$3,120 | $5,744 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 2.0% OTM over spot $159.25 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.58 mid) = $1,335 credit for the 6d cycle → $6,675/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $167.07) 73% EV / mo +$1,817 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.5-1.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~12.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,704 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$28 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $198 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.43/sh now → $4.54 mid-life (likely $5.90–$8.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,882 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $166 (overshoots $3.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $24 below CC-SS $186.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.11/sh (~25% of the $4.45 collected) or spot ≥ $167.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,292 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,060 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$5,744 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,977 (+$3,315 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-688 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,289, the opportunity cost of earning $6,675/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,675, position total $-6,236 (+$3,056 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.125 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,060 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-688
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 3/3 | $3,555 | $3,412 | 78% | 83% | +$1,583 | -$4,118 | 69.3% | $-4,351 (vs do-nothing $-3,663) |
| $167.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 2/3 | $2,920 | $3,257 | 73% | 79% | +$1,122 | -$3,136 | 52.8% | $-3,520 (vs do-nothing $-2,832) |
| $172.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 3/3 | $2,857 | $2,714 | 72% | 79% | +$1,135 | -$2,174 | 36.6% | $-2,407 (vs do-nothing $-1,719) |
| $170 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 3/3 | $3,219 | $3,076 | 71% | 78% | +$1,060 | -$3,434 | 57.8% | $-3,667 (vs do-nothing $-2,979) |
| $170 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.15 | 3/3 | $3,218 | $3,074 | 68% | 76% | +$793 | -$2,684 | 45.2% | $-2,917 (vs do-nothing $-2,229) |
| $167.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/3 | $3,738 | $3,595 | 68% | 76% | +$1,113 | -$3,959 | 66.7% | $-4,192 (vs do-nothing $-3,504) |
| $165 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 2/3 | $3,650 | $3,987 | 67% | 76% | +$1,220 | -$3,490 | 58.7% | $-3,874 (vs do-nothing $-3,186) |
| $167.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.00 | 3/3 | $3,600 | $3,457 | 65% | 76% | +$1,222 | -$3,179 | 53.5% | $-3,412 (vs do-nothing $-2,724) |
| $165 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 2/3 | $2,885 | $3,221 | 63% | 74% | +$768 | -$2,970 | 50.0% | $-3,354 (vs do-nothing $-2,666) |
| $165 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.85 | 3/3 | $3,982 | $3,839 | 61% | 72% | +$802 | -$3,674 | 61.9% | $-3,907 (vs do-nothing $-3,219) |
| $162.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 2/3 | $4,450 | $4,787 | 61% | 73% | +$1,211 | -$3,830 | 64.5% | $-4,214 (vs do-nothing $-3,526) |
| $162.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 2/3 | $3,323 | $3,660 | 59% | 71% | +$781 | -$3,280 | 55.2% | $-3,664 (vs do-nothing $-2,976) |
| $162.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 2/3 | $2,985 | $3,322 | 58% | 72% | +$843 | -$2,730 | 46.0% | $-3,114 (vs do-nothing $-2,426) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.05 | 2/3 | $3,315 | $3,652 | 55% | 69% | +$571 | -$3,010 | 50.7% | $-3,394 (vs do-nothing $-2,706) |
| $160 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/3 | $3,762 | $4,098 | 54% | 69% | +$730 | -$3,590 | 60.4% | $-3,974 (vs do-nothing $-3,286) |
| $160 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 2/3 | $5,550 | $5,887 | 54% | 69% | +$1,300 | -$4,110 | 69.2% | $-4,494 (vs do-nothing $-3,806) |
| $157.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.20 | 2/3 | $3,660 | $3,997 | 51% | 68% | +$555 | -$3,280 | 55.2% | $-3,664 (vs do-nothing $-2,976) |
| $157.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 2/3 | $4,338 | $4,675 | 49% | 67% | +$748 | -$3,840 | 64.6% | $-4,224 (vs do-nothing $-3,536) |
| $157.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 1/3 | $3,400 | $4,217 | 46% | 66% | +$658 | -$2,180 | 36.7% | $-2,716 (vs do-nothing $-2,028) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.