3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $188.32 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,608/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $196/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,735 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 3 × $170 | 77% | $3,300 | $950 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $200 | 17 Jul | 6d | 25.2% | 99% | 3% | $51 | $255 | -$3,045 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $200 25.2% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.18 mid) = $51 credit for the 6d cycle → $255/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $200.19) 99% EV / mo +$206 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,813 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.79/sh now → $6.21 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $200 is at/above CC-SS $188.32: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $200.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,735 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,699 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $200): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,036 (+$7,699 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,219 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,184, the opportunity cost of earning $255/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-4,502 (+$5,233 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $180 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.6% | 91% | 19% | $255 | $1,275 | -$2,025 | $2,240 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $180 12.6% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.88 mid) = $255 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,275/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $180.88) 92% EV / mo +$714 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.0] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,130 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,290 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $205 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.28/sh now → $5.15 mid-life (likely $4.17–$7.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $183 (overshoots $3.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $8 below CC-SS $188.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $180.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,735 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,699 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $180): -$2,240 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,275 (+$5,460 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,219 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,056, the opportunity cost of earning $1,275/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-4,502 (+$5,233 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 6d | 9.5% | 85% | 30% | $405 | $2,025 | -$1,275 | $3,590 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 9.5% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.39 mid) = $405 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,025/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $176.39) 87% EV / mo +$927 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,735 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,064 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.93/sh now → $4.90 mid-life (likely $4.60–$7.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 550 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $179 (overshoots $3.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $13 below CC-SS $188.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $176.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,735 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,699 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$3,590 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,625 (+$4,110 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,219 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,406, the opportunity cost of earning $2,025/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$849, position total $-5,351 (+$4,384 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $170 | 17 Jul | 6d | 6.4% | 77% | 34% | $660 | $3,300 | — | $4,835 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $170 6.4% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.28 mid) = $660 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $172.28) 82% EV / mo +$1,192 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~7.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,995 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$736 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.58/sh now → $4.65 mid-life (likely $4.97–$7.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,010 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $173 (overshoots $3.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $18 below CC-SS $188.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.20 collected) or spot ≥ $172.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,735 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,699 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $170): -$4,835 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,870 (+$2,865 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,219 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,651, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,094, position total $-6,596 (+$3,139 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 1.7% | 59% | 84% | $1,290 | $6,450 | +$3,150 | $6,455 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 1.7% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.40 mid) = $1,290 credit for the 6d cycle → $6,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $166.90) 71% EV / mo +$1,287 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~16.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,563 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.08/sh now → $4.30 mid-life (likely $5.69–$8.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,945 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $166 (overshoots $3.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $26 below CC-SS $188.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.07/sh (~25% of the $4.30 collected) or spot ≥ $166.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,735 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,699 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$6,455 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,490 (+$1,245 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,219 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,271, the opportunity cost of earning $6,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,714, position total $-8,216 (+$1,519 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$7,699 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,219
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 3/3 | $3,300 | $3,104 | 77% | 82% | +$1,192 | -$4,835 | 81.4% | $-6,870 (vs do-nothing $-3,651) |
| $167.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 3/3 | $4,110 | $3,914 | 72% | 78% | +$1,231 | -$5,423 | 91.3% | $-7,458 (vs do-nothing $-4,239) |
| $170 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/3 | $3,081 | $2,885 | 71% | 77% | +$813 | -$4,160 | 70.0% | $-6,195 (vs do-nothing $-2,976) |
| $170 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 3/3 | $3,150 | $2,954 | 67% | 75% | +$652 | -$3,395 | 57.1% | $-5,430 (vs do-nothing $-2,211) |
| $167.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/3 | $3,565 | $3,370 | 67% | 75% | +$811 | -$4,700 | 79.1% | $-6,735 (vs do-nothing $-3,516) |
| $165 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.44 | 2/3 | $3,439 | $3,675 | 66% | 75% | +$850 | -$3,975 | 66.9% | $-6,406 (vs do-nothing $-3,186) |
| $167.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 3/3 | $3,443 | $3,247 | 64% | 75% | +$576 | -$3,950 | 66.5% | $-5,985 (vs do-nothing $-2,766) |
| $165 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/3 | $4,154 | $3,958 | 62% | 73% | +$831 | -$5,195 | 87.5% | $-7,230 (vs do-nothing $-4,011) |
| $165 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 3/3 | $4,028 | $3,832 | 61% | 72% | +$748 | -$4,310 | 72.6% | $-6,345 (vs do-nothing $-3,126) |
| $162.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 2/3 | $4,300 | $4,536 | 59% | 71% | +$858 | -$4,303 | 72.4% | $-6,733 (vs do-nothing $-3,514) |
| $162.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 2/3 | $3,185 | $3,421 | 58% | 70% | +$530 | -$3,783 | 63.7% | $-6,213 (vs do-nothing $-2,994) |
| $162.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 2/3 | $2,985 | $3,221 | 57% | 71% | +$493 | -$3,173 | 53.4% | $-5,603 (vs do-nothing $-2,384) |
| $160 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 2/3 | $3,225 | $3,461 | 54% | 68% | +$396 | -$3,513 | 59.1% | $-5,943 (vs do-nothing $-2,724) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 2/3 | $3,738 | $3,974 | 53% | 68% | +$580 | -$4,043 | 68.1% | $-6,473 (vs do-nothing $-3,254) |
| $160 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.24 | 2/3 | $5,244 | $5,480 | 52% | 68% | +$742 | -$4,614 | 77.7% | $-7,045 (vs do-nothing $-3,825) |
| $157.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 2/3 | $3,540 | $3,776 | 50% | 69% | +$341 | -$3,803 | 64.0% | $-6,233 (vs do-nothing $-3,014) |
| $157.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 2/3 | $4,131 | $4,367 | 48% | 66% | +$401 | -$4,373 | 73.6% | $-6,803 (vs do-nothing $-3,584) |
| $157.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 1/3 | $3,225 | $3,892 | 45% | 64% | +$332 | -$2,437 | 41.0% | $-5,261 (vs do-nothing $-2,042) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.