3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $184.33 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $7,323/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $201/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,585 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 3 × $172.50 | 92% | $3,870 | $2,551 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 3 × $167.50 | 74% | $4,214 | $1,199 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 31.0% | 99+% | 0% | $30 | $225 | -$3,645 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $205 31.0% OTM over spot $156.49 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $30 credit for the 4d cycle → $225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $205.13) 99+% EV / mo +$224 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-370 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,611 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $234 @ 84% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.45/sh now → $8.80 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $205 is at/above CC-SS $184.33: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $205.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,517 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $205): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,068 (+$7,517 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.8% | 95% | 11% | $405 | $3,038 | -$832 | $2,394 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 11.8% OTM over spot $156.49 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.39 mid) = $405 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,038/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $176.39) 96% EV / mo +$2,758 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,698 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,584 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $199 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.38/sh now → $6.63 mid-life (likely $5.50–$9.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 158 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $178 (overshoots $2.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $9 below CC-SS $184.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $176.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,517 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$2,394 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,462 (+$5,123 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,406, the opportunity cost of earning $3,038/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.2% | 92% | 9% | $516 | $3,870 | — | $3,033 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 10.2% OTM over spot $156.49 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.84 mid) = $516 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $174.34) 94% EV / mo +$3,370 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,658 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,423 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $196 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.14/sh now → $6.46 mid-life (likely $5.21–$10.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 272 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $176 (overshoots $3.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $12 below CC-SS $184.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $174.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,517 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,033 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,101 (+$4,484 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,045, the opportunity cost of earning $3,870/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.4% | 78% | 44% | $1,035 | $7,762 | +$3,892 | $4,764 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 5.4% OTM over spot $156.49 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $3.55 mid) = $1,035 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,762/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $168.55) 86% EV / mo +$5,483 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,041 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$757 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $199 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.45/sh now → $5.97 mid-life (likely $6.41–$10.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 903 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $168 (overshoots $3.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $19 below CC-SS $184.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $168.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,517 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$4,764 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,832 (+$2,753 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,776, the opportunity cost of earning $7,762/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $212.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 35.8% | 99% | 2% | $78 | $212 | -$4,001 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $212.50 35.8% OTM over spot $156.49 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.41 mid) = $78 credit for the 11d cycle → $212/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $212.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $212.91) 99% EV / mo +$194 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.6-2.4] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $837 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,543 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $221 @ 75% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $18.52/sh now → $13.10 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $212.50 is at/above CC-SS $184.33: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $212.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,517 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $212.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $182.50): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,064 (+$7,521 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8, the opportunity cost of earning $212/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $182.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 16.6% | 91% | 19% | $561 | $1,530 | -$2,684 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $182.50 16.6% OTM over spot $156.49 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.07 mid) = $561 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,530/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $184.57) 92% EV / mo +$1,080 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,638 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,437 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $194 @ 77% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.13/sh now → $9.99 mid-life (likely $7.84–$12.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 360 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $186 (overshoots $3.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $182.50 is at/above CC-SS $184.33: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.87 collected) or spot ≥ $184.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,517 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $182.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,068 (+$7,517 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12, the opportunity cost of earning $1,530/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $175 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.8% | 84% | 33% | $990 | $2,700 | -$1,514 | $1,809 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 11.8% OTM over spot $156.49 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.38 mid) = $990 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $178.38) 87% EV / mo +$1,728 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,171 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,795 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $189 @ 80% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.12/sh now → $9.28 mid-life (likely $9.00–$13.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 753 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $179 (overshoots $3.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $9 below CC-SS $184.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $178.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,517 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$1,809 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,877 (+$5,708 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,821, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $167.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 7.0% | 74% | 43% | $1,545 | $4,214 | — | $3,504 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $167.50 7.0% OTM over spot $156.49 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.33 mid) = $1,545 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,214/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $172.82) 81% EV / mo +$2,205 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,275 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,033 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $191 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.15/sh now → $8.59 mid-life (likely $9.84–$13.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,286 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $171 (overshoots $3.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $17 below CC-SS $184.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.29/sh (~25% of the $5.15 collected) or spot ≥ $172.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,517 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $167.50): -$3,504 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,572 (+$4,013 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,516, the opportunity cost of earning $4,214/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $157.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.6% | 55% | 95% | $2,685 | $7,323 | +$3,109 | $5,364 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $157.50 0.6% OTM over spot $156.49 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $9.52 mid) = $2,685 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,323/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $167.03) 73% EV / mo +$2,609 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.5] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~13.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,034 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 79% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$369 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $186 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.91/sh now → $7.72 mid-life (likely $10.74–$14.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,363 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $161 (overshoots $3.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $27 below CC-SS $184.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.24/sh (~25% of the $8.95 collected) or spot ≥ $167.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,517 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $157.50): -$5,364 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,432 (+$2,153 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,376, the opportunity cost of earning $7,323/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$7,517 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,056
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 3/3 | $3,870 | $3,669 | 92% | 94% | +$3,370 | -$3,033 | 51.1% | $-5,101 (vs do-nothing $-3,045) |
| $170 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 3/3 | $4,950 | $4,749 | 89% | 92% | +$4,089 | -$3,639 | 61.3% | $-5,707 (vs do-nothing $-3,651) |
| $167.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 2/3 | $4,110 | $4,419 | 84% | 89% | +$3,158 | -$2,818 | 47.4% | $-4,882 (vs do-nothing $-2,826) |
| $165 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 2/3 | $5,175 | $5,484 | 78% | 86% | +$3,655 | -$3,176 | 53.5% | $-5,240 (vs do-nothing $-3,184) |
| $167.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/3 | $4,214 | $4,012 | 74% | 81% | +$2,205 | -$3,504 | 59.0% | $-5,572 (vs do-nothing $-3,516) |
| $162.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 2/3 | $6,450 | $6,759 | 72% | 83% | +$4,193 | -$3,506 | 59.0% | $-5,570 (vs do-nothing $-3,514) |
| $165 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/3 | $4,909 | $4,708 | 69% | 79% | +$2,389 | -$3,999 | 67.3% | $-6,067 (vs do-nothing $-4,011) |
| $167.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 3/3 | $3,825 | $3,624 | 69% | 80% | +$1,487 | -$2,754 | 46.4% | $-4,822 (vs do-nothing $-2,766) |
| $165 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 3/3 | $4,475 | $4,274 | 66% | 77% | +$1,751 | -$3,114 | 52.4% | $-5,182 (vs do-nothing $-3,126) |
| $162.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 2/3 | $3,764 | $4,072 | 65% | 77% | +$1,674 | -$2,986 | 50.3% | $-5,050 (vs do-nothing $-2,994) |
| $160 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 1/3 | $3,975 | $4,794 | 64% | 80% | +$2,307 | -$1,903 | 32.0% | $-3,963 (vs do-nothing $-1,907) |
| $162.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 3/3 | $4,975 | $4,774 | 62% | 76% | +$1,814 | -$3,564 | 60.0% | $-5,632 (vs do-nothing $-3,576) |
| $160 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 2/3 | $4,418 | $4,727 | 60% | 75% | +$1,844 | -$3,246 | 54.6% | $-5,310 (vs do-nothing $-3,254) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 3/3 | $5,375 | $5,174 | 59% | 73% | +$1,724 | -$4,074 | 68.6% | $-6,142 (vs do-nothing $-4,086) |
| $157.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 1/3 | $4,838 | $5,656 | 55% | 77% | +$2,446 | -$2,038 | 34.3% | $-4,098 (vs do-nothing $-2,042) |
| $157.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 2/3 | $3,933 | $4,242 | 55% | 74% | +$1,135 | -$3,006 | 50.6% | $-5,070 (vs do-nothing $-3,014) |
| $157.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 2/3 | $4,882 | $5,190 | 55% | 73% | +$1,739 | -$3,576 | 60.2% | $-5,640 (vs do-nothing $-3,584) |
| $155 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 3/3 | $5,025 | $4,824 | 51% | 71% | +$223 | -$5,784 | 97.4% | $-7,852 (vs do-nothing $-5,796) |
| $155 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 2/3 | $5,482 | $5,790 | 49% | 71% | +$1,683 | -$3,856 | 64.9% | $-5,920 (vs do-nothing $-3,864) |
| $155 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 1/3 | $5,888 | $6,706 | 46% | 74% | +$2,568 | -$2,148 | 36.2% | $-4,208 (vs do-nothing $-2,152) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.