FORTRESS FIGHT: COIN-LC145 @ $155.88

BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $183.67 | 3 contracts (300 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

COIN-LC145 @ $155.88 UNDERWATER $26.53 (14.5% below BE SS)

3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $183.67 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $145 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $87.285/sh)

SP: $200 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $68.614/sh)

HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.148/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$43,440	(ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300
Normal income ref	$7,507/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$201/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-9,585	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,753/mo

HEDGE COVER
$201/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$7,507/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.8 mo to earn back $5,940

ML VELOCITY
5.8 mo to earn back $43,440

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $183.67 (probe: $182.5C 11d) still earns $1,530/mo (20% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$432

Hole (after banked)

$9,153

was $9,585 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$191.38 → $183.67

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $183.67 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $185 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $185)

86%

Touch odds

28%

Per cycle

$1,080

Income / mo

$1,800

🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $190 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $190)

89%

Touch odds

22%

Per cycle

$822

Income / mo

$1,370

🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $235 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $235)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income / mo

$45

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$235	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$6.87/sh	+$2,061 cycle +$2,067	72% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$259	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$0.33/sh	+$99 cycle +$105	85% surv 77%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$269	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$2.00/sh	+$601 cycle +$607	83% surv 77%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (20 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$7,505 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,870

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$172.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.72	3/3	$3,870	$3,669	92%	94%	+$3,394	-$2,835	47.7%	$-4,915 (vs do-nothing $-3,045)
$170	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.20	3/3	$4,950	$4,749	89%	92%	+$4,172	-$3,441	57.9%	$-5,521 (vs do-nothing $-3,651)
$167.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.74	2/3	$4,110	$4,419	85%	90%	+$3,276	-$2,686	45.2%	$-4,696 (vs do-nothing $-2,826)
$165	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.45	2/3	$5,175	$5,484	80%	87%	+$3,863	-$3,044	51.2%	$-5,054 (vs do-nothing $-3,184)
$167.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.15	3/3	$4,214	$4,012	75%	82%	+$2,336	-$3,306	55.7%	$-5,386 (vs do-nothing $-3,516)
$162.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.30	2/3	$6,450	$6,759	74%	84%	+$4,434	-$3,374	56.8%	$-5,384 (vs do-nothing $-3,514)
$165	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/3	$4,909	$4,708	70%	80%	+$2,545	-$3,801	64.0%	$-5,881 (vs do-nothing $-4,011)
$167.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.65	3/3	$3,825	$3,624	70%	80%	+$1,590	-$2,556	43.0%	$-4,636 (vs do-nothing $-2,766)
$165	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.95	3/3	$4,475	$4,274	66%	77%	+$1,866	-$2,916	49.1%	$-4,996 (vs do-nothing $-3,126)
$160	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.30	1/3	$3,975	$4,794	66%	81%	+$2,469	-$1,837	30.9%	$-3,777 (vs do-nothing $-1,907)
$162.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.90	2/3	$3,764	$4,072	66%	78%	+$1,797	-$2,854	48.0%	$-4,864 (vs do-nothing $-2,994)
$162.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.95	3/3	$4,975	$4,774	63%	77%	+$1,943	-$3,366	56.7%	$-5,446 (vs do-nothing $-3,576)
$160	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	2/3	$4,418	$4,727	61%	76%	+$1,986	-$3,114	52.4%	$-5,124 (vs do-nothing $-3,254)

Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$160	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.75	3/3	$5,375	$5,174	59%	74%	+$1,866	-$3,876	65.3%	$-5,956 (vs do-nothing $-4,086)
$157.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$6.45	1/3	$4,838	$5,656	57%	78%	+$2,656	-$1,972	33.2%	$-3,912 (vs do-nothing $-2,042)
$157.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.95	2/3	$4,882	$5,190	56%	74%	+$1,902	-$3,444	58.0%	$-5,454 (vs do-nothing $-3,584)
$157.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.80	2/3	$3,933	$4,242	56%	74%	+$1,239	-$2,874	48.4%	$-4,884 (vs do-nothing $-3,014)
$155	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.05	3/3	$5,025	$4,824	52%	71%	+$392	-$5,586	94.0%	$-7,666 (vs do-nothing $-5,796)
$155	11d	24 Jul 2026	$10.05	2/3	$5,482	$5,790	50%	72%	+$1,867	-$3,724	62.7%	$-5,734 (vs do-nothing $-3,864)
$155	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.85	1/3	$5,888	$6,706	48%	76%	+$2,828	-$2,082	35.1%	$-4,022 (vs do-nothing $-2,152)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:35