3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $185.97 (banked floor $184.67) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $7,323/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $201/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,585 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 3 × $172.50 | 91% | $3,870 | $2,520 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 3 × $167.50 | 73% | $4,214 | $1,107 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 30.7% | 99+% | 0% | $30 | $225 | -$3,645 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $205 30.7% OTM over spot $156.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $30 credit for the 4d cycle → $225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $205.13) 99+% EV / mo +$223 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-366 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,507 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $233 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.96/sh now → $8.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $205 is at/above CC-SS $185.97: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $205.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,875 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $205): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,710 (+$7,875 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$480, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,544 (+$6,041 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.6% | 94% | 13% | $405 | $3,038 | -$832 | $2,886 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 11.6% OTM over spot $156.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.39 mid) = $405 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,038/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $176.39) 95% EV / mo +$2,671 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,064 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,505 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $198 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.00/sh now → $6.37 mid-life (likely $5.00–$9.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 175 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $178 (overshoots $2.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $11 below CC-SS $185.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $176.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,875 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$2,886 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,596 (+$4,989 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,406, the opportunity cost of earning $3,038/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$849, position total $-4,393 (+$5,192 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.0% | 91% | 10% | $516 | $3,870 | — | $3,525 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 10.0% OTM over spot $156.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.84 mid) = $516 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $174.34) 93% EV / mo +$3,271 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,893 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,346 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.78/sh now → $6.21 mid-life (likely $5.03–$10.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $176 (overshoots $3.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $13 below CC-SS $185.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $174.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,875 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,525 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,235 (+$4,350 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,045, the opportunity cost of earning $3,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,488, position total $-5,032 (+$4,553 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.2% | 78% | 46% | $1,035 | $7,762 | +$3,892 | $5,256 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 5.2% OTM over spot $156.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $3.55 mid) = $1,035 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,762/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $168.55) 86% EV / mo +$5,393 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.7] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,250 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$686 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $198 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.11/sh now → $5.74 mid-life (likely $6.19–$10.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 950 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $168 (overshoots $3.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $21 below CC-SS $185.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $168.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,875 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$5,256 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,966 (+$2,619 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,776, the opportunity cost of earning $7,762/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,219, position total $-6,763 (+$2,822 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $212.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 35.5% | 99% | 3% | $78 | $212 | -$4,001 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $212.50 35.5% OTM over spot $156.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.41 mid) = $78 credit for the 11d cycle → $212/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $212.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $212.91) 99% EV / mo +$193 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $869 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,450 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $221 @ 75% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $17.87/sh now → $12.64 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $212.50 is at/above CC-SS $185.97: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $212.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,875 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $212.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$160 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,870 (+$7,715 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$320, the opportunity cost of earning $212/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,357 (+$6,228 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $182.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 16.4% | 90% | 20% | $561 | $1,530 | -$2,684 | $480 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $182.50 16.4% OTM over spot $156.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.07 mid) = $561 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,530/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $184.57) 92% EV / mo +$1,060 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,721 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,345 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $196 @ 79% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.69/sh now → $9.69 mid-life (likely $7.71–$13.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 421 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $186 (overshoots $3.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $3 below CC-SS $185.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.87 collected) or spot ≥ $184.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,875 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $182.50): -$480 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,190 (+$7,395 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $1,530/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,544 (+$6,041 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $175 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.6% | 83% | 35% | $990 | $2,700 | -$1,514 | $2,301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 11.6% OTM over spot $156.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.38 mid) = $990 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $178.38) 87% EV / mo +$1,628 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,629 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,712 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $188 @ 79% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.73/sh now → $9.01 mid-life (likely $8.60–$13.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 839 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $179 (overshoots $3.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $11 below CC-SS $185.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $178.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,875 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$2,301 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,011 (+$5,574 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,821, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$264, position total $-3,808 (+$5,777 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $167.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.8% | 73% | 45% | $1,545 | $4,214 | — | $3,996 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $167.50 6.8% OTM over spot $156.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.33 mid) = $1,545 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,214/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $172.82) 80% EV / mo +$1,992 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,946 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$961 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $191 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.81/sh now → $8.35 mid-life (likely $9.84–$13.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,364 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $171 (overshoots $3.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $18 below CC-SS $185.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.29/sh (~25% of the $5.15 collected) or spot ≥ $172.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,875 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $167.50): -$3,996 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,706 (+$3,879 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,516, the opportunity cost of earning $4,214/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,959, position total $-5,503 (+$4,082 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $157.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.4% | 54% | 97% | $2,685 | $7,323 | +$3,109 | $5,856 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $157.50 0.4% OTM over spot $156.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $9.52 mid) = $2,685 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,323/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $167.03) 72% EV / mo +$2,241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.3] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~14.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,880 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 80% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$430 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $186 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.63/sh now → $7.52 mid-life (likely $10.52–$14.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,397 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $162 (overshoots $4.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $28 below CC-SS $185.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.24/sh (~25% of the $8.95 collected) or spot ≥ $167.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $185.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,875 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $157.50): -$5,856 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,566 (+$2,019 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,190 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,376, the opportunity cost of earning $7,323/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,819, position total $-7,363 (+$2,222 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$7,875 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,190
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 3/3 | $3,870 | $3,669 | 91% | 93% | +$3,271 | -$3,525 | 59.3% | $-5,235 (vs do-nothing $-3,045) |
| $170 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 3/3 | $4,950 | $4,749 | 88% | 91% | +$3,984 | -$4,131 | 69.5% | $-5,841 (vs do-nothing $-3,651) |
| $167.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 2/3 | $4,110 | $4,419 | 83% | 89% | +$3,091 | -$3,146 | 53.0% | $-5,016 (vs do-nothing $-2,826) |
| $165 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 2/3 | $5,175 | $5,484 | 78% | 86% | +$3,595 | -$3,504 | 59.0% | $-5,374 (vs do-nothing $-3,184) |
| $167.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/3 | $4,214 | $4,012 | 73% | 80% | +$1,992 | -$3,996 | 67.3% | $-5,706 (vs do-nothing $-3,516) |
| $162.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 2/3 | $6,450 | $6,759 | 71% | 82% | +$4,062 | -$3,834 | 64.5% | $-5,704 (vs do-nothing $-3,514) |
| $165 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/3 | $4,909 | $4,708 | 69% | 79% | +$2,306 | -$4,491 | 75.6% | $-6,201 (vs do-nothing $-4,011) |
| $167.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 3/3 | $3,825 | $3,624 | 68% | 79% | +$1,433 | -$3,246 | 54.7% | $-4,956 (vs do-nothing $-2,766) |
| $165 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 3/3 | $4,475 | $4,274 | 65% | 76% | +$1,690 | -$3,606 | 60.7% | $-5,316 (vs do-nothing $-3,126) |
| $162.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 2/3 | $3,764 | $4,072 | 64% | 76% | +$1,477 | -$3,314 | 55.8% | $-5,184 (vs do-nothing $-2,994) |
| $160 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 1/3 | $3,975 | $4,794 | 63% | 79% | +$2,219 | -$2,067 | 34.8% | $-4,097 (vs do-nothing $-1,907) |
| $162.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 3/3 | $4,975 | $4,774 | 62% | 76% | +$1,747 | -$4,056 | 68.3% | $-5,766 (vs do-nothing $-3,576) |
| $160 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 2/3 | $4,418 | $4,727 | 59% | 74% | +$1,620 | -$3,574 | 60.2% | $-5,444 (vs do-nothing $-3,254) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 3/3 | $5,375 | $5,174 | 58% | 73% | +$1,650 | -$4,566 | 76.9% | $-6,276 (vs do-nothing $-4,086) |
| $157.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 2/3 | $3,933 | $4,242 | 54% | 73% | +$1,081 | -$3,334 | 56.1% | $-5,204 (vs do-nothing $-3,014) |
| $157.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 1/3 | $4,838 | $5,656 | 54% | 76% | +$2,334 | -$2,202 | 37.1% | $-4,232 (vs do-nothing $-2,042) |
| $157.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 2/3 | $4,882 | $5,190 | 54% | 72% | +$1,494 | -$3,904 | 65.7% | $-5,774 (vs do-nothing $-3,584) |
| $155 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 3/3 | $5,025 | $4,824 | 51% | 70% | +$135 | -$6,276 | 105.7% | $-7,986 (vs do-nothing $-5,796) |
| $155 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 2/3 | $5,482 | $5,790 | 49% | 70% | +$1,422 | -$4,184 | 70.4% | $-6,054 (vs do-nothing $-3,864) |
| $155 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 1/3 | $5,888 | $6,706 | 45% | 73% | +$2,430 | -$2,312 | 38.9% | $-4,342 (vs do-nothing $-2,152) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.