3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $186.23 (banked floor $184.94) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $7,323/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $201/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,585 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 3 × $172.50 | 91% | $3,870 | $2,545 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 3 × $167.50 | 72% | $4,214 | $1,198 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 30.4% | 99+% | 0% | $30 | $225 | -$3,645 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $205 30.4% OTM over spot $157.22 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $30 credit for the 4d cycle → $225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $205.13) 99+% EV / mo +$223 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.9] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-221 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,377 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $233 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.34/sh now → $8.02 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $205 is at/above CC-SS $186.23: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $205.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,792 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $205): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $207 (+$9,792 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-352 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$559, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,173 (+$7,412 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.3% | 93% | 14% | $405 | $3,038 | -$832 | $2,965 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 11.3% OTM over spot $157.22 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.39 mid) = $405 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,038/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $176.39) 95% EV / mo +$2,630 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,686 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,408 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.54/sh now → $6.04 mid-life (likely $4.78–$9.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 192 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $178 (overshoots $2.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $11 below CC-SS $186.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $176.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,792 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$2,965 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,758 (+$6,827 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-352 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,406, the opportunity cost of earning $3,038/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$849, position total $-3,022 (+$6,563 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.7% | 91% | 10% | $516 | $3,870 | — | $3,604 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 9.7% OTM over spot $157.22 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.84 mid) = $516 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $174.34) 93% EV / mo +$3,208 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,046 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,251 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.33/sh now → $5.89 mid-life (likely $5.08–$10.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 300 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $176 (overshoots $3.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $14 below CC-SS $186.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $174.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,792 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,604 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,397 (+$6,188 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-352 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,045, the opportunity cost of earning $3,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,488, position total $-3,661 (+$5,924 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.9% | 76% | 48% | $1,035 | $7,762 | +$3,892 | $5,335 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 4.9% OTM over spot $157.22 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $3.55 mid) = $1,035 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,762/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $168.55) 85% EV / mo +$5,195 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 85% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,077 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$598 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $188 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.70/sh now → $5.44 mid-life (likely $5.93–$9.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,004 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $168 (overshoots $3.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $21 below CC-SS $186.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $168.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,792 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$5,335 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,128 (+$4,457 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-352 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,776, the opportunity cost of earning $7,762/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,219, position total $-5,392 (+$4,193 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $212.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 35.2% | 99% | 3% | $78 | $212 | -$4,001 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $212.50 35.2% OTM over spot $157.22 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.41 mid) = $78 credit for the 11d cycle → $212/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $212.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $212.91) 99% EV / mo +$192 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.0] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $625 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,399 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 75% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $17.51/sh now → $12.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $212.50 is at/above CC-SS $186.23: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $212.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,792 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $212.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$186 Total Position P&L @ SS: $21 (+$9,606 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-352 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$373, the opportunity cost of earning $212/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-1,986 (+$7,599 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $185 | 24 Jul | 11d | 17.7% | 92% | 17% | $489 | $1,334 | -$2,880 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $185 17.7% OTM over spot $157.22 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.80 mid) = $489 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,334/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $186.80) 93% EV / mo +$948 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.4] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,950 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,414 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $198 @ 78% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.68/sh now → $9.68 mid-life (likely $7.66–$13.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 333 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $189 (overshoots $3.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $185 is at/above CC-SS $186.23: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.63 collected) or spot ≥ $186.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,792 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $185): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $207 (+$9,792 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-352 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$559, the opportunity cost of earning $1,334/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,173 (+$7,412 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $175 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.3% | 83% | 35% | $990 | $2,700 | -$1,514 | $2,380 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 11.3% OTM over spot $157.22 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.38 mid) = $990 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $178.38) 87% EV / mo +$1,635 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,800 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,642 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $188 @ 79% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.40/sh now → $8.77 mid-life (likely $8.36–$12.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 806 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $179 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $11 below CC-SS $186.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $178.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,792 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$2,380 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,173 (+$7,412 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-352 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,821, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$264, position total $-2,437 (+$7,148 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $167.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.5% | 72% | 45% | $1,545 | $4,214 | — | $4,075 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $167.50 6.5% OTM over spot $157.22 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.33 mid) = $1,545 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,214/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $172.82) 80% EV / mo +$2,041 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,781 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$892 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $190 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.49/sh now → $8.12 mid-life (likely $9.53–$13.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,361 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $171 (overshoots $3.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $19 below CC-SS $186.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.29/sh (~25% of the $5.15 collected) or spot ≥ $172.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,792 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $167.50): -$4,075 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,868 (+$5,717 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-352 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,516, the opportunity cost of earning $4,214/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,959, position total $-4,132 (+$5,453 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $157.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.2% | 53% | 99% | $2,685 | $7,323 | +$3,109 | $5,935 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $157.50 0.2% OTM over spot $157.22 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $9.52 mid) = $2,685 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,323/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $167.03) 72% EV / mo +$2,308 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 83% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~13.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,427 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 81% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$496 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $185 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.32/sh now → $7.30 mid-life (likely $10.30–$14.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,432 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $162 (overshoots $4.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $29 below CC-SS $186.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.24/sh (~25% of the $8.95 collected) or spot ≥ $167.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,585 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,792 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $157.50): -$5,935 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,728 (+$3,857 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-352 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,376, the opportunity cost of earning $7,323/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,819, position total $-5,992 (+$3,593 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.125 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,792 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-352
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 3/3 | $3,870 | $3,669 | 91% | 93% | +$3,208 | -$3,604 | 60.7% | $-3,397 (vs do-nothing $-3,045) |
| $170 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 3/3 | $4,950 | $4,749 | 87% | 91% | +$3,889 | -$4,210 | 70.9% | $-4,003 (vs do-nothing $-3,651) |
| $167.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 2/3 | $4,110 | $4,419 | 82% | 88% | +$2,998 | -$3,199 | 53.9% | $-3,178 (vs do-nothing $-2,826) |
| $165 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 2/3 | $5,175 | $5,484 | 76% | 85% | +$3,463 | -$3,557 | 59.9% | $-3,536 (vs do-nothing $-3,184) |
| $167.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/3 | $4,214 | $4,012 | 72% | 80% | +$2,041 | -$4,075 | 68.6% | $-3,868 (vs do-nothing $-3,516) |
| $162.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 2/3 | $6,450 | $6,759 | 69% | 81% | +$3,881 | -$3,887 | 65.4% | $-3,866 (vs do-nothing $-3,514) |
| $165 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/3 | $4,909 | $4,708 | 68% | 78% | +$2,194 | -$4,570 | 76.9% | $-4,363 (vs do-nothing $-4,011) |
| $167.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 3/3 | $3,825 | $3,624 | 68% | 79% | +$1,360 | -$3,325 | 56.0% | $-3,118 (vs do-nothing $-2,766) |
| $165 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 3/3 | $4,475 | $4,274 | 65% | 76% | +$1,610 | -$3,685 | 62.0% | $-3,478 (vs do-nothing $-3,126) |
| $162.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 2/3 | $3,764 | $4,072 | 63% | 76% | +$1,523 | -$3,367 | 56.7% | $-3,346 (vs do-nothing $-2,994) |
| $160 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 1/3 | $3,975 | $4,794 | 61% | 78% | +$2,099 | -$2,093 | 35.2% | $-2,259 (vs do-nothing $-1,907) |
| $162.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 3/3 | $4,975 | $4,774 | 61% | 75% | +$1,658 | -$4,135 | 69.6% | $-3,928 (vs do-nothing $-3,576) |
| $160 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 2/3 | $4,418 | $4,727 | 58% | 74% | +$1,668 | -$3,627 | 61.1% | $-3,606 (vs do-nothing $-3,254) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 3/3 | $5,375 | $5,174 | 57% | 72% | +$1,552 | -$4,645 | 78.2% | $-4,438 (vs do-nothing $-4,086) |
| $157.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 2/3 | $3,933 | $4,242 | 54% | 73% | +$1,009 | -$3,387 | 57.0% | $-3,366 (vs do-nothing $-3,014) |
| $157.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 2/3 | $4,882 | $5,190 | 53% | 72% | +$1,539 | -$3,957 | 66.6% | $-3,936 (vs do-nothing $-3,584) |
| $157.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 1/3 | $4,838 | $5,656 | 52% | 75% | +$2,182 | -$2,228 | 37.5% | $-2,394 (vs do-nothing $-2,042) |
| $155 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 3/3 | $5,025 | $4,824 | 50% | 70% | +$18 | -$6,355 | 107.0% | $-6,148 (vs do-nothing $-5,796) |
| $155 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 2/3 | $5,482 | $5,790 | 48% | 70% | +$1,457 | -$4,237 | 71.3% | $-4,216 (vs do-nothing $-3,864) |
| $155 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 1/3 | $5,888 | $6,706 | 43% | 72% | +$2,244 | -$2,338 | 39.4% | $-2,504 (vs do-nothing $-2,152) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.