3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $188.08 (banked floor $186.78) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $6,136/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $111/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-9,952 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 3 × $170 | 83% | $3,668 | $1,360 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 3 × $167.50 | 70% | $3,477 | $866 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 29.8% | 99% | 1% | $18 | $135 | -$3,532 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $205 29.8% OTM over spot $157.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.07 mid) = $18 credit for the 4d cycle → $135/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $205.07) 99% EV / mo +$109 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.3-1.4] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,790 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $235 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.52/sh now → $6.03 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $205 is at/above CC-SS $188.08: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $205.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,952 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,188 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $205): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $236 (+$10,188 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-950 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,186, the opportunity cost of earning $135/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,076 (+$6,877 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.8% | 90% | 20% | $282 | $2,115 | -$1,552 | $3,643 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 10.8% OTM over spot $157.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.00 mid) = $282 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,115/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $176.00) 91% EV / mo +$1,315 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.4-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,882 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,104 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.53/sh now → $4.62 mid-life (likely $4.00–$7.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 350 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $179 (overshoots $3.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $13 below CC-SS $188.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $176.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,952 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,188 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$3,643 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,407 (+$6,545 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,457, the opportunity cost of earning $2,115/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$705, position total $-3,781 (+$6,172 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $170 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.6% | 83% | 23% | $489 | $3,668 | — | $4,936 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $170 7.6% OTM over spot $157.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.70 mid) = $489 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,668/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $171.70) 86% EV / mo +$1,769 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,423 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$832 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.22/sh now → $4.40 mid-life (likely $4.54–$8.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 699 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $174 (overshoots $3.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $18 below CC-SS $188.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.63 collected) or spot ≥ $171.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,952 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,188 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $170): -$4,936 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,700 (+$5,252 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,750, the opportunity cost of earning $3,668/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,998, position total $-5,074 (+$4,879 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $165 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.5% | 72% | 58% | $819 | $6,143 | +$2,475 | $6,106 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 4.5% OTM over spot $157.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.81 mid) = $819 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,143/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $167.81) 78% EV / mo +$2,093 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~10.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,401 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$438 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.92/sh now → $4.19 mid-life (likely $4.77–$7.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,278 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $169 (overshoots $3.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $23 below CC-SS $188.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.68/sh (~25% of the $2.73 collected) or spot ≥ $167.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,952 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,188 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$6,106 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,870 (+$4,082 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,920, the opportunity cost of earning $6,143/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,168, position total $-6,244 (+$3,709 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $220 | 24 Jul | 11d | 39.3% | 98% | 3% | $42 | $115 | -$3,363 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $220 39.3% OTM over spot $157.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.18 mid) = $42 credit for the 11d cycle → $115/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $220) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $220.19) 98% EV / mo +$62 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.6] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-33 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,070 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $232 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.66/sh now → $10.37 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $220 is at/above CC-SS $188.08: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $220.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,952 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,188 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $220): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $236 (+$10,188 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-950 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,186, the opportunity cost of earning $115/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,076 (+$6,877 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $187.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 18.7% | 91% | 19% | $333 | $908 | -$2,569 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $187.50 18.7% OTM over spot $157.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.20 mid) = $333 credit for the 11d cycle → $908/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $187.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $188.70) 92% EV / mo +$410 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,164 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,021 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.09/sh now → $7.85 mid-life (likely $6.24–$10.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 335 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $192 (overshoots $4.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $187.50 is at/above CC-SS $188.08: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $188.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,952 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,188 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $187.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $236 (+$10,188 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-950 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,186, the opportunity cost of earning $908/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-3,076 (+$6,877 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $175 | 24 Jul | 11d | 10.8% | 80% | 41% | $792 | $2,160 | -$1,317 | $3,133 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 10.8% OTM over spot $157.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.84 mid) = $792 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $177.84) 84% EV / mo +$739 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,074 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,299 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $192 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.85/sh now → $6.97 mid-life (likely $6.96–$10.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 929 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $179 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $13 below CC-SS $188.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.64 collected) or spot ≥ $177.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,952 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,188 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$3,133 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,897 (+$7,055 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,947, the opportunity cost of earning $2,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$195, position total $-3,271 (+$6,682 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $167.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.0% | 70% | 49% | $1,275 | $3,477 | — | $4,900 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $167.50 6.0% OTM over spot $157.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.45 mid) = $1,275 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,477/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $171.95) 77% EV / mo +$833 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~5.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,306 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$665 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $195 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.14/sh now → $6.47 mid-life (likely $7.79–$10.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,481 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $171 (overshoots $3.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $21 below CC-SS $188.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.06/sh (~25% of the $4.25 collected) or spot ≥ $171.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,952 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,188 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $167.50): -$4,900 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,664 (+$5,288 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,714, the opportunity cost of earning $3,477/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,962, position total $-5,038 (+$4,915 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $157.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.3% | 52% | 99+% | $2,385 | $6,505 | +$3,027 | $6,790 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $157.50 0.3% ITM over spot $157.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $8.22 mid) = $2,385 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,505/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $165.72) 67% EV / mo +$850 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$638 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $188 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.23/sh now → $5.82 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $31 below CC-SS $188.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.99/sh (~25% of the $7.95 collected) or spot ≥ $165.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,952 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$10,188 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $157.50): -$6,790 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,554 (+$3,398 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-950 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,604, the opportunity cost of earning $6,505/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,852, position total $-6,928 (+$3,025 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.127 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,188 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-950
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.63 | 3/3 | $3,668 | $3,556 | 83% | 86% | +$1,769 | -$4,936 | 83.1% | $-4,700 (vs do-nothing $-3,750) |
| $167.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 2/3 | $3,165 | $3,498 | 78% | 82% | +$1,292 | -$3,695 | 62.2% | $-3,854 (vs do-nothing $-2,904) |
| $165 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.73 | 2/3 | $4,095 | $4,428 | 72% | 78% | +$1,396 | -$4,071 | 68.5% | $-4,230 (vs do-nothing $-3,280) |
| $167.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 3/3 | $3,477 | $3,366 | 70% | 77% | +$833 | -$4,900 | 82.5% | $-4,664 (vs do-nothing $-3,714) |
| $167.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 3/3 | $3,325 | $3,214 | 66% | 75% | +$566 | -$4,180 | 70.4% | $-3,944 (vs do-nothing $-2,994) |
| $165 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/3 | $4,091 | $3,979 | 66% | 74% | +$863 | -$5,425 | 91.3% | $-5,189 (vs do-nothing $-4,239) |
| $162.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 2/3 | $5,250 | $5,583 | 65% | 74% | +$1,463 | -$4,417 | 74.4% | $-4,576 (vs do-nothing $-3,626) |
| $165 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 3/3 | $3,825 | $3,714 | 63% | 73% | +$643 | -$4,630 | 77.9% | $-4,394 (vs do-nothing $-3,444) |
| $162.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 2/3 | $3,164 | $3,497 | 61% | 72% | +$552 | -$3,957 | 66.6% | $-4,116 (vs do-nothing $-3,166) |
| $162.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.55 | 3/3 | $4,275 | $4,164 | 60% | 71% | +$626 | -$5,110 | 86.0% | $-4,874 (vs do-nothing $-3,924) |
| $160 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 1/3 | $3,225 | $4,003 | 58% | 70% | +$576 | -$2,378 | 40.0% | $-2,933 (vs do-nothing $-1,983) |
| $160 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 2/3 | $3,709 | $4,042 | 57% | 70% | +$560 | -$4,257 | 71.7% | $-4,416 (vs do-nothing $-3,466) |
| $160 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.65 | 2/3 | $3,217 | $3,550 | 56% | 70% | +$437 | -$3,687 | 62.1% | $-3,846 (vs do-nothing $-2,896) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.70 | 2/3 | $3,567 | $3,900 | 53% | 68% | +$403 | -$3,977 | 66.9% | $-4,136 (vs do-nothing $-3,186) |
| $157.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 2/3 | $4,336 | $4,669 | 52% | 67% | +$567 | -$4,527 | 76.2% | $-4,686 (vs do-nothing $-3,736) |
| $157.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 1/3 | $3,975 | $4,753 | 50% | 67% | +$530 | -$2,528 | 42.6% | $-3,083 (vs do-nothing $-2,133) |
| $155 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.90 | 2/3 | $3,967 | $4,300 | 49% | 66% | +$381 | -$4,237 | 71.3% | $-4,396 (vs do-nothing $-3,446) |
| $155 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.20 | 2/3 | $5,018 | $5,351 | 46% | 65% | +$541 | -$4,777 | 80.4% | $-4,936 (vs do-nothing $-3,986) |
| $155 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 1/3 | $4,912 | $5,690 | 42% | 63% | +$440 | -$2,653 | 44.7% | $-3,208 (vs do-nothing $-2,258) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.