COIN-LC145 @ $155.88 UNDERWATER $26.52 (14.5% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
COIN reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 17 days. The recommended CC (17d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-31.
3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $187.14 (banked floor $185.84) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $145 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $87.285/sh)
SP: $200 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $68.614/sh)
HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.148/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,490/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $95/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-10,346 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,745/mo
HEDGE COVER
$95/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$5,490/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.1 mo to earn back $5,940
ML VELOCITY
7.9 mo to earn back $43,440
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $187.14 (probe: $187.5C 17d) still earns $1,318/mo (24% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$432
Hole (after banked)
$9,914
was $10,346 · 4% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$187.14 → $185.84
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 20 (live) · RSI 40 · MACD bullish, hist rising
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 40 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $178.18 (+14%) · daily UBB $173.95 · 1-wk expected move ±$17 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $187.14 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $187.50 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $187.50)
88%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.65/sh now → $11.08 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $190 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $190)
89%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.00/sh now → $11.32 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $215 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $215)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.39/sh now → $6.64 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$215 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$5.94/sh | +$1,783 cycle +$1,786 | 68% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$232 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.15/sh | +$45 cycle +$48 | 78% surv 72% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$259 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.01/sh | +$4 cycle +$7 | 87% surv 84% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (22 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.128 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,578 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-745
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $172.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 3/3 | $2,910 | $2,815 | 91% | 92% | +$1,992 | -$4,101 | 69.0% | $-3,868 (vs do-nothing $-3,123) |
| $170 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.28 | 3/3 | $3,840 | $3,745 | 89% | 91% | +$2,763 | -$4,758 | 80.1% | $-4,525 (vs do-nothing $-3,780) |
| $167.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 2/3 | $3,360 | $3,679 | 85% | 88% | +$2,172 | -$3,592 | 60.5% | $-3,685 (vs do-nothing $-2,940) |
| $165 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.23 | 2/3 | $4,460 | $4,779 | 79% | 84% | +$2,567 | -$3,982 | 67.0% | $-4,075 (vs do-nothing $-3,330) |
| $170 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 3/3 | $2,970 | $2,875 | 76% | 81% | +$896 | -$4,152 | 69.9% | $-3,919 (vs do-nothing $-3,174) |
| $162.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.88 | 1/3 | $2,880 | $3,613 | 73% | 80% | +$1,425 | -$2,176 | 36.6% | $-2,595 (vs do-nothing $-1,850) |
| $167.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 3/3 | $3,420 | $3,325 | 73% | 79% | +$844 | -$4,752 | 80.0% | $-4,519 (vs do-nothing $-3,774) |
| $170 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 3/3 | $3,044 | $2,949 | 72% | 79% | +$884 | -$3,417 | 57.5% | $-3,184 (vs do-nothing $-2,439) |
| $167.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/3 | $3,415 | $3,319 | 69% | 77% | +$904 | -$3,957 | 66.6% | $-3,724 (vs do-nothing $-2,979) |
| $165 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 2/3 | $2,760 | $3,079 | 69% | 76% | +$646 | -$3,508 | 59.1% | $-3,601 (vs do-nothing $-2,856) |
| $165 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 3/3 | $3,812 | $3,716 | 66% | 75% | +$903 | -$4,482 | 75.5% | $-4,249 (vs do-nothing $-3,504) |
| $160 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 1/3 | $3,650 | $4,383 | 65% | 76% | +$1,492 | -$2,349 | 39.5% | $-2,768 (vs do-nothing $-2,023) |
| $162.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 2/3 | $3,240 | $3,559 | 65% | 74% | +$660 | -$3,848 | 64.8% | $-3,941 (vs do-nothing $-3,196) |
Show 9 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $162.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 2/3 | $2,859 | $3,177 | 63% | 73% | +$620 | -$3,308 | 55.7% | $-3,401 (vs do-nothing $-2,656) |
| $160 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 2/3 | $3,780 | $4,099 | 60% | 71% | +$659 | -$4,168 | 70.2% | $-4,261 (vs do-nothing $-3,516) |
| $160 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.05 | 2/3 | $3,194 | $3,513 | 59% | 72% | +$619 | -$3,618 | 60.9% | $-3,711 (vs do-nothing $-2,966) |
| $157.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 1/3 | $4,500 | $5,233 | 57% | 72% | +$1,412 | -$2,514 | 42.3% | $-2,933 (vs do-nothing $-2,188) |
| $157.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.10 | 2/3 | $3,565 | $3,883 | 56% | 70% | +$615 | -$3,908 | 65.8% | $-4,001 (vs do-nothing $-3,256) |
| $157.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 2/3 | $4,410 | $4,729 | 56% | 69% | +$669 | -$4,458 | 75.0% | $-4,551 (vs do-nothing $-3,806) |
| $155 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.25 | 2/3 | $3,971 | $4,289 | 52% | 68% | +$606 | -$4,178 | 70.3% | $-4,271 (vs do-nothing $-3,526) |
| $155 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.35 | 2/3 | $5,010 | $5,329 | 51% | 67% | +$565 | -$4,758 | 80.1% | $-4,851 (vs do-nothing $-4,106) |
| $155 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 1/3 | $5,650 | $6,383 | 48% | 68% | +$1,316 | -$2,649 | 44.6% | $-3,068 (vs do-nothing $-2,323) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.