3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $186.27 (banked floor $184.97) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,029/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $327/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 3 × $175 | 87% | $2,820 | $942 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 3 × $172.50 | 75% | $2,835 | $451 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $190 | 17 Jul | 3d | 18.9% | 98% | 5% | $39 | $390 | -$2,430 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $190 18.9% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.25 mid) = $39 credit for the 3d cycle → $390/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $190.25) 98% EV / mo +$227 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.3] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-5 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,344 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $215 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.52/sh now → $4.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $190 is at/above CC-SS $186.27: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $190.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,964 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $190): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $214 (+$8,964 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-444 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$659, the opportunity cost of earning $390/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,500 (+$6,249 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $177.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.1% | 90% | 20% | $189 | $1,890 | -$930 | $2,441 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $177.50 11.1% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.72 mid) = $189 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,890/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $178.22) 91% EV / mo +$730 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.8] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,202 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,050 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.84/sh now → $4.13 mid-life (likely $3.79–$7.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $182 (overshoots $4.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $9 below CC-SS $186.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $178.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,964 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $177.50): -$2,441 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,226 (+$6,523 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-444 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,782, the opportunity cost of earning $1,890/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36, position total $-2,536 (+$6,213 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $175 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.5% | 87% | 16% | $282 | $2,820 | — | $3,098 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 9.5% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.98 mid) = $282 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,820/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $175.98) 88% EV / mo +$1,117 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.7] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,510 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$930 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.71/sh now → $4.04 mid-life (likely $3.88–$7.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 465 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $179 (overshoots $4.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $11 below CC-SS $186.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $175.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,964 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$3,098 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,883 (+$5,866 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-444 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,439, the opportunity cost of earning $2,820/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$693, position total $-3,193 (+$5,556 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $167.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 4.8% | 73% | 55% | $636 | $6,360 | +$3,540 | $4,994 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $167.50 4.8% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $2.21 mid) = $636 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $169.71) 78% EV / mo +$1,381 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo) · 85% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~9.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,733 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$494 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.33/sh now → $3.77 mid-life (likely $4.37–$7.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,099 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $172 (overshoots $4.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $19 below CC-SS $186.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.12 collected) or spot ≥ $169.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,964 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $167.50): -$4,994 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,779 (+$3,970 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-444 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,335, the opportunity cost of earning $6,360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,589, position total $-5,089 (+$3,660 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $202.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 26.7% | 97% | 6% | $111 | $333 | -$2,502 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $202.50 26.7% OTM over spot $159.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.94 mid) = $111 credit for the 10d cycle → $333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $203.44) 97% EV / mo +$225 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-2.2] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-90 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,391 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $213 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.79/sh now → $8.34 mid-life (likely $6.36–$9.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 95 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $207 (overshoots $4.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $202.50 is at/above CC-SS $186.27: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $203.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,964 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $202.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $214 (+$8,964 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-444 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$659, the opportunity cost of earning $333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,500 (+$6,249 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $190 | 24 Jul | 10d | 18.9% | 92% | 17% | $276 | $828 | -$2,007 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $190 18.9% OTM over spot $159.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.01 mid) = $276 credit for the 10d cycle → $828/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $191.01) 92% EV / mo +$378 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.7] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $482 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,967 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 73% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.57/sh now → $7.48 mid-life (likely $6.14–$9.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 305 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $194 (overshoots $4.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $190 is at/above CC-SS $186.27: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $191.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,964 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $190): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $214 (+$8,964 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-444 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$659, the opportunity cost of earning $828/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,500 (+$6,249 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $180 | 24 Jul | 10d | 12.6% | 84% | 34% | $582 | $1,746 | -$1,089 | $1,298 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $180 12.6% OTM over spot $159.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.04 mid) = $582 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,746/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $182.04) 86% EV / mo +$509 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,435 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,464 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $193 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.64/sh now → $6.82 mid-life (likely $6.57–$10.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 719 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $184 (overshoots $4.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $6 below CC-SS $186.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.94 collected) or spot ≥ $182.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,964 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $180): -$1,298 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,083 (+$7,666 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-444 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-639, the opportunity cost of earning $1,746/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-2,500 (+$6,249 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $172.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 7.9% | 75% | 42% | $945 | $2,835 | — | $3,185 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $172.50 7.9% OTM over spot $159.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $3.30 mid) = $945 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,835/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $175.80) 79% EV / mo +$616 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-2.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,299 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$959 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $193 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.97/sh now → $6.35 mid-life (likely $6.94–$10.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,252 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $176 (overshoots $3.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $14 below CC-SS $186.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.79/sh (~25% of the $3.15 collected) or spot ≥ $175.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,964 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $172.50): -$3,185 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,970 (+$5,779 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-444 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,526, the opportunity cost of earning $2,835/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$780, position total $-3,280 (+$5,469 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 1.7% | 58% | 88% | $1,815 | $5,445 | +$2,610 | $5,315 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 1.7% OTM over spot $159.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $6.45 mid) = $1,815 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,445/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $168.95) 70% EV / mo +$493 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.9 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~10.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,996 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$92 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $198 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.12/sh now → $5.74 mid-life (likely $7.85–$10.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,182 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $167 (overshoots $4.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $24 below CC-SS $186.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.51/sh (~25% of the $6.05 collected) or spot ≥ $168.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $186.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,964 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$5,315 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,100 (+$3,649 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-444 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,656, the opportunity cost of earning $5,445/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,910, position total $-5,410 (+$3,339 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.129 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,964 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-444
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 3/3 | $2,820 | $2,493 | 87% | 88% | +$1,117 | -$3,098 | 52.1% | $-2,883 (vs do-nothing $-2,439) |
| $172.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 3/3 | $3,570 | $3,243 | 83% | 85% | +$1,099 | -$3,773 | 63.5% | $-3,558 (vs do-nothing $-3,114) |
| $170 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 2/3 | $3,220 | $3,364 | 79% | 82% | +$863 | -$2,931 | 49.3% | $-2,936 (vs do-nothing $-2,492) |
| $172.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/3 | $2,835 | $2,508 | 75% | 79% | +$616 | -$3,185 | 53.6% | $-2,970 (vs do-nothing $-2,526) |
| $167.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.12 | 2/3 | $4,240 | $4,384 | 73% | 78% | +$921 | -$3,329 | 56.0% | $-3,334 (vs do-nothing $-2,890) |
| $170 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 3/3 | $3,375 | $3,048 | 71% | 77% | +$638 | -$3,755 | 63.2% | $-3,540 (vs do-nothing $-3,096) |
| $172.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/3 | $2,726 | $2,399 | 70% | 77% | +$299 | -$2,585 | 43.5% | $-2,370 (vs do-nothing $-1,926) |
| $170 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/3 | $3,229 | $2,902 | 67% | 75% | +$423 | -$3,050 | 51.3% | $-2,835 (vs do-nothing $-2,391) |
| $167.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 2/3 | $2,670 | $2,814 | 67% | 75% | +$432 | -$2,863 | 48.2% | $-2,868 (vs do-nothing $-2,424) |
| $165 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 1/3 | $2,700 | $3,315 | 67% | 74% | +$401 | -$1,857 | 31.3% | $-2,081 (vs do-nothing $-1,637) |
| $167.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 3/3 | $3,574 | $3,246 | 64% | 73% | +$339 | -$3,605 | 60.7% | $-3,390 (vs do-nothing $-2,946) |
| $165 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 2/3 | $3,090 | $3,234 | 63% | 72% | +$362 | -$3,223 | 54.3% | $-3,228 (vs do-nothing $-2,784) |
| $165 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 2/3 | $2,665 | $2,808 | 61% | 71% | +$188 | -$2,743 | 46.2% | $-2,748 (vs do-nothing $-2,304) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 1/3 | $3,400 | $4,015 | 60% | 70% | +$271 | -$2,037 | 34.3% | $-2,261 (vs do-nothing $-1,817) |
| $162.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 2/3 | $3,630 | $3,774 | 58% | 70% | +$329 | -$3,543 | 59.6% | $-3,548 (vs do-nothing $-3,104) |
| $162.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.50 | 2/3 | $3,000 | $3,144 | 57% | 70% | +$165 | -$3,053 | 51.4% | $-3,058 (vs do-nothing $-2,614) |
| $160 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.50 | 2/3 | $3,353 | $3,497 | 54% | 68% | +$122 | -$3,353 | 56.4% | $-3,358 (vs do-nothing $-2,914) |
| $160 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 2/3 | $4,410 | $4,554 | 53% | 67% | +$446 | -$3,783 | 63.7% | $-3,788 (vs do-nothing $-3,344) |
| $160 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 1/3 | $4,450 | $5,065 | 52% | 66% | +$270 | -$2,182 | 36.7% | $-2,406 (vs do-nothing $-1,962) |
| $157.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.60 | 2/3 | $3,741 | $3,885 | 50% | 66% | +$73 | -$3,633 | 61.2% | $-3,638 (vs do-nothing $-3,194) |
| $157.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/3 | $4,890 | $5,034 | 48% | 65% | +$171 | -$4,123 | 69.4% | $-4,128 (vs do-nothing $-3,684) |
| $157.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 1/3 | $5,550 | $6,165 | 44% | 62% | +$77 | -$2,322 | 39.1% | $-2,546 (vs do-nothing $-2,102) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.