COIN-LC145 @ $160.18 UNDERWATER $22.22 (12.2% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
COIN reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 16 days. The recommended CC (16d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-31.
3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $185.51 (banked floor $184.21) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $145 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $87.285/sh)
SP: $200 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $68.614/sh)
HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.148/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $6,142/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $144/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,367 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,071/mo
HEDGE COVER
$144/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$6,142/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $5,940
ML VELOCITY
7.1 mo to earn back $43,440
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $185.51 (probe: $185C 16d) still earns $2,081/mo (34% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$432
Hole (after banked)
$7,935
was $8,367 · 5% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$185.51 → $184.21
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 25 (live) · RSI 41 · MACD bullish, hist rising
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 56 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $178.41 (+11%) · daily UBB $172.91 · 1-wk expected move ±$19 (chain IV)
SETUPOversold with mixed daily momentum: lean 🎯, keep DTE short, watch the daily band. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $185.51 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $187.50 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $187.50)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.19/sh now → $10.75 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $197.50 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $197.50)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.99/sh now → $4.94 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$198 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$5.64/sh | +$1,693 cycle +$1,705 | 67% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$212 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.71/sh | +$212 cycle +$224 | 79% surv 73% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$232 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | +$0.20/sh | +$59 cycle +$71 | 85% surv 82% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $200 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $200)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.13/sh now → $5.04 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$200 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$5.76/sh | +$1,728 cycle +$1,743 | 67% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$215 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.83/sh | +$248 cycle +$263 | 79% surv 72% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$235 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | +$0.35/sh | +$104 cycle +$119 | 85% surv 82% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (24 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.128 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,570 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $547
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $175 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 3/3 | $4,095 | $3,951 | 91% | 92% | +$2,992 | -$2,879 | 48.5% | $-2,675 (vs do-nothing $-3,222) |
| $172.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 2/3 | $3,660 | $4,294 | 88% | 90% | +$2,423 | -$2,357 | 39.7% | $-2,039 (vs do-nothing $-2,586) |
| $170 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 2/3 | $5,100 | $5,734 | 83% | 86% | +$3,070 | -$2,761 | 46.5% | $-2,443 (vs do-nothing $-2,990) |
| $175 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 3/3 | $3,200 | $3,056 | 78% | 82% | +$1,237 | -$2,192 | 36.9% | $-1,988 (vs do-nothing $-2,535) |
| $167.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 1/3 | $3,330 | $4,742 | 76% | 82% | +$1,713 | -$1,579 | 26.6% | $-1,146 (vs do-nothing $-1,693) |
| $172.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 3/3 | $3,750 | $3,606 | 75% | 80% | +$1,303 | -$2,777 | 46.7% | $-2,573 (vs do-nothing $-3,120) |
| $175 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 3/3 | $3,291 | $3,147 | 72% | 79% | +$932 | -$1,397 | 23.5% | $-1,193 (vs do-nothing $-1,740) |
| $172.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/3 | $3,656 | $3,512 | 70% | 77% | +$935 | -$1,952 | 32.9% | $-1,748 (vs do-nothing $-2,295) |
| $170 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/3 | $4,450 | $4,306 | 69% | 76% | +$804 | -$3,317 | 55.8% | $-3,113 (vs do-nothing $-3,660) |
| $165 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 1/3 | $4,500 | $5,912 | 69% | 78% | +$2,006 | -$1,751 | 29.5% | $-1,318 (vs do-nothing $-1,865) |
| $170 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 3/3 | $4,078 | $3,934 | 67% | 75% | +$948 | -$2,477 | 41.7% | $-2,273 (vs do-nothing $-2,820) |
| $167.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 2/3 | $3,467 | $4,101 | 65% | 74% | +$528 | -$2,561 | 43.1% | $-2,243 (vs do-nothing $-2,790) |
| $167.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 3/3 | $4,472 | $4,328 | 63% | 74% | +$881 | -$3,017 | 50.8% | $-2,813 (vs do-nothing $-3,360) |
Show 11 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $165 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 2/3 | $4,033 | $4,667 | 61% | 71% | +$508 | -$2,891 | 48.7% | $-2,573 (vs do-nothing $-3,120) |
| $162.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 1/3 | $5,625 | $7,037 | 60% | 74% | +$1,910 | -$1,926 | 32.4% | $-1,493 (vs do-nothing $-2,040) |
| $165 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.10 | 2/3 | $3,412 | $4,047 | 60% | 71% | +$523 | -$2,281 | 38.4% | $-1,963 (vs do-nothing $-2,510) |
| $162.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 2/3 | $4,667 | $5,301 | 57% | 69% | +$472 | -$3,201 | 53.9% | $-2,883 (vs do-nothing $-3,430) |
| $162.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.00 | 2/3 | $3,750 | $4,384 | 57% | 71% | +$631 | -$2,601 | 43.8% | $-2,283 (vs do-nothing $-2,830) |
| $160 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.10 | 2/3 | $4,162 | $4,797 | 53% | 68% | +$462 | -$2,881 | 48.5% | $-2,563 (vs do-nothing $-3,110) |
| $160 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 2/3 | $5,400 | $6,034 | 52% | 67% | +$448 | -$3,481 | 58.6% | $-3,163 (vs do-nothing $-3,710) |
| $160 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 1/3 | $7,500 | $8,912 | 51% | 69% | +$2,163 | -$2,051 | 34.5% | $-1,618 (vs do-nothing $-2,165) |
| $157.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.05 | 2/3 | $4,519 | $5,153 | 50% | 66% | +$356 | -$3,191 | 53.7% | $-2,873 (vs do-nothing $-3,420) |
| $157.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.25 | 1/3 | $3,083 | $4,496 | 47% | 66% | +$445 | -$1,876 | 31.6% | $-1,443 (vs do-nothing $-1,990) |
| $157.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 1/3 | $9,150 | $10,562 | 41% | 66% | +$1,753 | -$2,191 | 36.9% | $-1,758 (vs do-nothing $-2,305) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.