COIN-LC145 @ $166.96 UNDERWATER $15.44 (8.5% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
COIN reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 16 days. The recommended CC (16d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-31.
3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $188.98 (banked floor $187.68) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
LC: $145 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $87.285/sh)
SP: $200 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $68.614/sh)
HP: $75 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $1.148/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,766/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $151/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,268 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,883/mo
HEDGE COVER
$151/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$5,766/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $5,940
ML VELOCITY
7.5 mo to earn back $43,440
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $188.98 (probe: $190C 16d) still earns $2,138/mo (37% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$432
Hole (after banked)
$6,836
was $7,268 · 6% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$188.98 → $187.68
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 34 (live) · RSI 41 · MACD bullish, hist rising
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 77 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $178.46 (+7%) · daily UBB $173.78 · 1-wk expected move ±$20 (chain IV)
SETUPOversold with mixed daily momentum: lean 🎯, keep DTE short, watch the daily band. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $188.98 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 3 × $190 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $190)
80%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.97/sh now → $10.59 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $195 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $195)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.63/sh now → $11.06 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $197.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $197.50)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.84/sh now → $7.67 mid-life (likely $6.93–$10.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 418 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $203 (overshoots $5.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$198 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$4.09/sh | +$1,228 cycle +$1,504 [+$1,208…+$1,626] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$206 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.73/sh | +$218 cycle +$494 [+$46…+$480] · 80% credit | 72% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$206 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.73/sh | +$218 cycle +$494 [+$46…+$480] · 80% credit | 72% surv 63% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$211 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$0.85/sh | -$255 cycle +$21 [-$503…-$66] · 22% credit | 75% surv 68% |
| budget: banked $276 debit $255 (92% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $5,114/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (21 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.127 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,443 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-282
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $180 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 3/3 | $3,870 | $3,719 | 89% | 90% | +$2,296 | -$2,435 | 41.0% | $-2,259 (vs do-nothing $-1,977) |
| $177.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 2/3 | $3,660 | $4,437 | 82% | 85% | +$1,369 | -$2,051 | 34.5% | $-2,028 (vs do-nothing $-1,746) |
| $175 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 2/3 | $4,800 | $5,577 | 77% | 81% | +$1,285 | -$2,475 | 41.7% | $-2,452 (vs do-nothing $-2,170) |
| $180 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/3 | $3,150 | $2,999 | 73% | 78% | +$96 | -$1,748 | 29.4% | $-1,572 (vs do-nothing $-1,290) |
| $180 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 3/3 | $3,234 | $3,083 | 70% | 77% | +$547 | -$968 | 16.3% | $-792 (vs do-nothing $-510) |
| $177.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 3/3 | $3,650 | $3,499 | 70% | 75% | $-46 | -$2,348 | 39.5% | $-2,172 (vs do-nothing $-1,890) |
| $172.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 1/3 | $3,330 | $5,035 | 70% | 76% | +$710 | -$1,426 | 24.0% | $-1,555 (vs do-nothing $-1,273) |
| $177.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/3 | $3,628 | $3,477 | 67% | 75% | +$540 | -$1,508 | 25.4% | $-1,332 (vs do-nothing $-1,050) |
| $175 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 2/3 | $3,100 | $3,877 | 66% | 73% | +$138 | -$1,865 | 31.4% | $-1,842 (vs do-nothing $-1,560) |
| $175 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 3/3 | $4,078 | $3,927 | 64% | 74% | +$541 | -$2,018 | 34.0% | $-1,842 (vs do-nothing $-1,560) |
| $172.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 2/3 | $3,433 | $4,211 | 62% | 71% | $-100 | -$2,265 | 38.1% | $-2,242 (vs do-nothing $-1,960) |
| $170 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 1/3 | $4,500 | $6,205 | 62% | 72% | +$703 | -$1,598 | 26.9% | $-1,727 (vs do-nothing $-1,445) |
| $172.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/3 | $3,056 | $3,833 | 61% | 72% | +$362 | -$1,665 | 28.0% | $-1,642 (vs do-nothing $-1,360) |
Show 8 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $170 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 2/3 | $4,067 | $4,844 | 58% | 68% | $-117 | -$2,575 | 43.4% | $-2,552 (vs do-nothing $-2,270) |
| $170 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.15 | 2/3 | $3,431 | $4,208 | 58% | 70% | +$364 | -$1,965 | 33.1% | $-1,942 (vs do-nothing $-1,660) |
| $167.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.25 | 2/3 | $3,844 | $4,621 | 54% | 69% | +$363 | -$2,245 | 37.8% | $-2,222 (vs do-nothing $-1,940) |
| $167.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 2/3 | $4,800 | $5,577 | 54% | 66% | $-118 | -$2,855 | 48.1% | $-2,832 (vs do-nothing $-2,550) |
| $167.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 1/3 | $6,000 | $7,705 | 53% | 67% | +$659 | -$1,748 | 29.4% | $-1,877 (vs do-nothing $-1,595) |
| $165 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.55 | 2/3 | $4,331 | $5,108 | 51% | 67% | +$396 | -$2,485 | 41.8% | $-2,462 (vs do-nothing $-2,180) |
| $165 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.35 | 2/3 | $5,567 | $6,344 | 49% | 64% | $-171 | -$3,125 | 52.6% | $-3,102 (vs do-nothing $-2,820) |
| $165 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 1/3 | $7,650 | $9,355 | 44% | 63% | +$369 | -$1,888 | 31.8% | $-2,017 (vs do-nothing $-1,735) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.