3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $190.34 (banked floor $185.89) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $5,122/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $104/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,405 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 | U18827291 | $3.70 | $1,110 | 2026-07-23 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 3d | 3 × $167.50 | 90% | $2,610 | $1,771 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 10d | 3 × $165 | 79% | $2,700 | $487 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $195 | 7 Aug | 3d | 29.6% | 99%hist 99% | 1%hist 1% | -2pp | $12 | $120 | -$2,490 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $195 29.6% OTM over spot $150.43 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.09 mid) = $12 credit for the 3d cycle → $120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $195) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $195.09) 99% EV / mo +$85 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-6/mo median; plan ~$-4/mo after 68% keep · $-4 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.8], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,925 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $225 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.13/sh now → $6.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $195 is at/above CC-SS $190.34: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $195.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,830 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $195): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $424 (+$13,830 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,105, the opportunity cost of earning $120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,127 (+$7,278 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $177.50 | 14 Aug | 10d | 18.0% | 91%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +0pp | $351 | $1,053 | -$1,557 | $3,500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $177.50 18.0% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.30 mid) = $351 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,053/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $178.81) 91% EV / mo +$527 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $628/mo median; plan ~$427/mo after 68% keep · $1,811 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,106 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $192 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.58/sh now → $8.19 mid-life (likely $6.83–$11.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 401 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $182 (overshoots $4.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $13 below CC-SS $190.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $178.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,830 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $177.50): -$3,500 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,076 (+$10,329 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,395, the opportunity cost of earning $1,053/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,127 (+$7,278 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $170 | 7 Aug | 3d | 13.0% | 93%hist 99% | 15%hist 6% | +3pp | $201 | $2,010 | -$600 | $5,900 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $170 13.0% OTM over spot $150.43 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.72 mid) = $201 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,010/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $170.72) 93% EV / mo +$1,268 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,324/mo median; plan ~$900/mo after 68% keep · $2,548 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,353 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $195 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.32/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $4.36–$8.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 206 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $174 (overshoots $3.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $20 below CC-SS $190.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $170.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,830 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $170): -$5,900 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,476 (+$7,929 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,795, the opportunity cost of earning $2,010/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$228, position total $-6,355 (+$7,050 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $167.50 | 7 Aug | 3d | 11.4% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 18% | +4pp | $261 | $2,610 | — | $6,590 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $167.50 11.4% OTM over spot $150.43 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.94 mid) = $261 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $168.44) 91% EV / mo +$1,506 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,593/mo median; plan ~$1,083/mo after 68% keep · $3,074 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,257 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $195 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.15/sh now → $5.06 mid-life (likely $4.66–$9.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 346 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $172 (overshoots $4.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $23 below CC-SS $190.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $168.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,830 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $167.50): -$6,590 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,166 (+$7,239 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,485, the opportunity cost of earning $2,610/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$918, position total $-7,045 (+$6,360 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $160 | 7 Aug | 3d | 6.4% | 78%hist 92% | 44%hist 32% | +8pp | $648 | $6,480 | +$3,870 | $8,453 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $160 6.4% OTM over spot $150.43 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $2.22 mid) = $648 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $162.22) 83% EV / mo +$3,004 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,119/mo median; plan ~$2,121/mo after 68% keep · $4,982 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$764 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $195 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.65/sh now → $4.71 mid-life (likely $5.43–$9.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 836 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $164 (overshoots $4.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $30 below CC-SS $190.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.16 collected) or spot ≥ $162.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,830 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $160): -$8,453 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,029 (+$5,376 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,348, the opportunity cost of earning $6,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,781, position total $-8,908 (+$4,497 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $200 | 14 Aug | 10d | 33.0% | 98%hist 99% | 5%hist 1% | -3pp | $45 | $135 | -$2,565 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $200 33.0% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.30 mid) = $45 credit for the 10d cycle → $135/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $200.31) 98% EV / mo +$52 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 73% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-6/mo median; plan ~$-4/mo after 68% keep · $-6 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,969 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $212 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.20/sh now → $10.05 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $200 is at/above CC-SS $190.34: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $200.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,830 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $200): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $424 (+$13,830 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,105, the opportunity cost of earning $135/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,127 (+$7,278 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $177.50 | 14 Aug | 10d | 18.0% | 91%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +0pp | $351 | $1,053 | -$1,647 | $3,500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $177.50 18.0% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.30 mid) = $351 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,053/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $178.81) 91% EV / mo +$527 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $628/mo median; plan ~$427/mo after 68% keep · $1,811 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,106 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $192 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.58/sh now → $8.19 mid-life (likely $6.83–$11.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 401 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $182 (overshoots $4.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $13 below CC-SS $190.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $178.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,830 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $177.50): -$3,500 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,076 (+$10,329 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,395, the opportunity cost of earning $1,053/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,127 (+$7,278 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $170 | 14 Aug | 10d | 13.0% | 84%hist 95% | 32%hist 22% | +4pp | $654 | $1,962 | -$738 | $5,447 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $170 13.0% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.32 mid) = $654 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,962/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $172.31) 87% EV / mo +$906 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,129/mo median; plan ~$768/mo after 68% keep · $2,694 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,629 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $187 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.76/sh now → $7.61 mid-life (likely $7.10–$11.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 693 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $174 (overshoots $4.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $20 below CC-SS $190.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.18 collected) or spot ≥ $172.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,830 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $170): -$5,447 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,023 (+$8,382 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,342, the opportunity cost of earning $1,962/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,127 (+$7,278 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $165 | 14 Aug | 10d | 9.7% | 79%hist 92% | 45%hist 32% | +4pp | $900 | $2,700 | — | $6,701 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 9.7% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $3.20 mid) = $900 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $168.20) 83% EV / mo +$1,025 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,318/mo median; plan ~$896/mo after 68% keep · $3,740 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,271 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $185 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.23/sh now → $7.24 mid-life (likely $7.28–$11.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,007 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $169 (overshoots $3.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $25 below CC-SS $190.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $168.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,830 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$6,701 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,277 (+$7,128 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,596, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,029, position total $-7,156 (+$6,249 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $155 | 14 Aug | 10d | 3.0% | 62%hist 78% | 80%hist 59% | +7pp | $1,755 | $5,265 | +$2,565 | $8,846 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $155 3.0% OTM over spot $150.43 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $6.22 mid) = $1,755 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,265/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $161.22) 73% EV / mo +$1,284 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,250/mo median; plan ~$1,530/mo after 68% keep · $4,247 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$199 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $190 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.21/sh now → $6.51 mid-life (likely $8.66–$11.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,944 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $159 (overshoots $3.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $35 below CC-SS $190.34: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.46/sh (~25% of the $5.85 collected) or spot ≥ $161.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.16 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.34, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,405 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,830 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $155): -$8,846 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,422 (+$4,983 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,681 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,741, the opportunity cost of earning $5,265/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.43 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,174, position total $-9,301 (+$4,104 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.155 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,830 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,681
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $167.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 3/3 | $2,610 | $2,506 | 90% | 91% | +$1,506 | -$6,590 | 110.9% | $-6,166 (vs do-nothing $-4,485) |
| $165 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.18 | 3/3 | $3,540 | $3,436 | 87% | 89% | +$1,908 | -$7,247 | 122.0% | $-6,823 (vs do-nothing $-5,142) |
| $162.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.58 | 2/3 | $3,160 | $3,302 | 83% | 86% | +$1,564 | -$5,251 | 88.4% | $-5,529 (vs do-nothing $-3,848) |
| $165 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 3/3 | $2,700 | $2,596 | 79% | 83% | +$1,025 | -$6,701 | 112.8% | $-6,277 (vs do-nothing $-4,596) |
| $160 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.16 | 2/3 | $4,320 | $4,462 | 78% | 83% | +$2,003 | -$5,635 | 94.9% | $-5,913 (vs do-nothing $-4,232) |
| $162.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 3/3 | $3,105 | $3,001 | 75% | 80% | +$1,007 | -$7,316 | 123.2% | $-6,892 (vs do-nothing $-5,211) |
| $157.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.83 | 1/3 | $2,830 | $3,218 | 73% | 79% | +$1,171 | -$3,001 | 50.5% | $-3,980 (vs do-nothing $-2,299) |
| $162.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.20 | 3/3 | $2,753 | $2,649 | 71% | 78% | +$757 | -$6,791 | 114.3% | $-6,367 (vs do-nothing $-4,686) |
| $160 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.25 | 3/3 | $3,825 | $3,721 | 71% | 78% | +$1,211 | -$7,826 | 131.8% | $-7,402 (vs do-nothing $-5,721) |
| $160 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.00 | 3/3 | $3,176 | $3,072 | 68% | 76% | +$851 | -$7,301 | 122.9% | $-6,877 (vs do-nothing $-5,196) |
| $157.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.80 | 2/3 | $2,880 | $3,022 | 67% | 75% | +$722 | -$5,607 | 94.4% | $-5,885 (vs do-nothing $-4,204) |
| $160 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.10 | 3/3 | $2,662 | $2,558 | 66% | 75% | +$404 | -$6,971 | 117.4% | $-6,547 (vs do-nothing $-4,866) |
| $155 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.60 | 1/3 | $3,600 | $3,988 | 66% | 76% | +$1,264 | -$3,174 | 53.4% | $-4,153 (vs do-nothing $-2,472) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.40 | 3/3 | $3,388 | $3,284 | 65% | 74% | +$700 | -$7,931 | 133.5% | $-7,507 (vs do-nothing $-5,826) |
| $157.50 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.90 | 3/3 | $2,962 | $2,858 | 63% | 73% | +$385 | -$7,481 | 125.9% | $-7,057 (vs do-nothing $-5,376) |
| $155 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.85 | 2/3 | $3,510 | $3,652 | 62% | 73% | +$856 | -$5,897 | 99.3% | $-6,175 (vs do-nothing $-4,494) |
| $155 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 2/3 | $2,753 | $2,895 | 61% | 72% | +$578 | -$5,507 | 92.7% | $-5,785 (vs do-nothing $-4,104) |
| $155 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.70 | 3/3 | $3,638 | $3,534 | 60% | 72% | +$707 | -$7,691 | 129.5% | $-7,267 (vs do-nothing $-5,586) |
| $152.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.50 | 1/3 | $4,500 | $4,888 | 58% | 72% | +$1,278 | -$3,334 | 56.1% | $-4,313 (vs do-nothing $-2,632) |
| $152.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 2/3 | $4,080 | $4,222 | 57% | 71% | +$842 | -$6,207 | 104.5% | $-6,485 (vs do-nothing $-4,804) |
| $152.50 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.90 | 3/3 | $3,712 | $3,608 | 57% | 70% | +$393 | -$8,381 | 141.1% | $-7,957 (vs do-nothing $-6,276) |
| $152.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.55 | 2/3 | $3,018 | $3,160 | 57% | 70% | +$546 | -$5,857 | 98.6% | $-6,135 (vs do-nothing $-4,454) |
| $150 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.15 | 2/3 | $2,788 | $2,930 | 53% | 69% | +$291 | -$5,837 | 98.3% | $-6,115 (vs do-nothing $-4,434) |
| $150 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.10 | 2/3 | $3,565 | $3,707 | 52% | 69% | +$625 | -$6,047 | 101.8% | $-6,325 (vs do-nothing $-4,644) |
| $149 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.55 | 2/3 | $2,888 | $3,030 | 52% | 68% | +$373 | -$5,957 | 100.3% | $-6,235 (vs do-nothing $-4,554) |
| $150 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.95 | 2/3 | $4,770 | $4,912 | 52% | 69% | +$852 | -$6,477 | 109.0% | $-6,755 (vs do-nothing $-5,074) |
| $149 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.60 | 2/3 | $3,741 | $3,883 | 51% | 68% | +$680 | -$6,147 | 103.5% | $-6,425 (vs do-nothing $-4,744) |
| $150 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.80 | 1/3 | $5,800 | $6,188 | 50% | 69% | +$1,456 | -$3,454 | 58.1% | $-4,433 (vs do-nothing $-2,752) |
| $148 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.80 | 2/3 | $2,950 | $3,092 | 50% | 68% | +$310 | -$6,107 | 102.8% | $-6,385 (vs do-nothing $-4,704) |
| $149 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 2/3 | $5,070 | $5,212 | 49% | 68% | +$853 | -$6,577 | 110.7% | $-6,855 (vs do-nothing $-5,174) |
| $148 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.65 | 2/3 | $3,759 | $3,901 | 49% | 67% | +$503 | -$6,337 | 106.7% | $-6,615 (vs do-nothing $-4,934) |
| $148 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $9.05 | 1/3 | $2,715 | $3,103 | 47% | 67% | +$449 | -$3,329 | 56.0% | $-4,308 (vs do-nothing $-2,627) |
| $149 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.20 | 1/3 | $6,200 | $6,588 | 47% | 68% | +$1,338 | -$3,514 | 59.2% | $-4,493 (vs do-nothing $-2,812) |
| $148 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 1/3 | $6,750 | $7,138 | 44% | 66% | +$1,329 | -$3,559 | 59.9% | $-4,538 (vs do-nothing $-2,857) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.