3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $188.09 (banked floor $183.64) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $4,753/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $109/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,196 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 | U18827291 | $3.70 | $1,110 | 2026-07-23 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 2d | 3 × $162.50 | 90% | $3,420 | $3,016 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 9d | 3 × $162.50 | 79% | $2,680 | $245 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $185 | 7 Aug | 2d | 24.6% | 99%hist 99% | 2%hist 1% | -2pp | $10 | $150 | -$3,270 | $608 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $185 24.6% OTM over spot $148.52 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.07 mid) = $10 credit for the 2d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $185.07) 99% EV / mo +$115 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $267/mo median; plan ~$182/mo after 68% keep · $370 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$943 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $219 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.73/sh now → $4.76 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $3 below CC-SS $188.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $185.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,196 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,486 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $185): -$608 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $182.50): -$428 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-746 (+$12,450 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-994 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$248, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-5,281 (+$7,915 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $175 | 14 Aug | 9d | 17.8% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +0pp | $285 | $950 | -$2,470 | $3,643 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 17.8% OTM over spot $148.52 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.05 mid) = $285 credit for the 9d cycle → $950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $176.05) 92% EV / mo +$473 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $572/mo median; plan ~$389/mo after 68% keep · $1,585 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,924 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $191 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.41/sh now → $7.36 mid-life (likely $5.83–$10.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 341 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $179 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $13 below CC-SS $188.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.95 collected) or spot ≥ $176.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,196 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,486 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$3,643 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,352 (+$9,844 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,358, the opportunity cost of earning $950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-5,412 (+$7,784 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $165 | 7 Aug | 2d | 11.1% | 92%hist 99% | 15%hist 6% | +4pp | $147 | $2,205 | -$1,215 | $6,781 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 11.1% OTM over spot $148.52 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.54 mid) = $147 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,205/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $165.54) 93% EV / mo +$1,275 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 73% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,439/mo median; plan ~$979/mo after 68% keep · $2,359 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,045 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $194 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.62/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $4.01–$7.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 197 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $169 (overshoots $3.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $23 below CC-SS $188.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $165.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,196 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,486 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$6,781 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,490 (+$6,706 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,496, the opportunity cost of earning $2,205/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,761, position total $-7,173 (+$6,023 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 7 Aug | 2d | 9.4% | 90%hist 95% | 21%hist 18% | +5pp | $228 | $3,420 | — | $7,450 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 9.4% OTM over spot $148.52 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.79 mid) = $228 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $163.29) 91% EV / mo +$1,955 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 81% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,153/mo median; plan ~$1,464/mo after 68% keep · $3,326 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.1], measured ONLY among the 81% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$936 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $194 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.49/sh now → $3.88 mid-life (likely $4.01–$8.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 304 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $167 (overshoots $4.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $26 below CC-SS $188.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $163.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,196 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,486 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$7,450 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,159 (+$6,037 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,165, the opportunity cost of earning $3,420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,430, position total $-7,842 (+$5,354 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $160 | 7 Aug | 2d | 7.7% | 86%hist 95% | 29%hist 18% | +12pp | $330 | $4,950 | +$1,530 | $8,098 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $160 7.7% OTM over spot $148.52 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $1.15 mid) = $330 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $161.15) 88% EV / mo +$2,636 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,757/mo median; plan ~$1,875/mo after 68% keep · $5,374 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$806 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $186 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.35/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $4.09–$8.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 438 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $164 (overshoots $4.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $28 below CC-SS $188.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $161.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,196 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,486 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $160): -$8,098 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,807 (+$5,389 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,813, the opportunity cost of earning $4,950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,078, position total $-8,490 (+$4,706 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $200 | 14 Aug | 9d | 34.7% | 99%hist 99% | 3%hist 1% | -3pp | $45 | $150 | -$2,530 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $200 34.7% OTM over spot $148.52 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.33 mid) = $45 credit for the 9d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $200.32) 99% EV / mo +$105 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1/mo median; plan ~$1/mo after 68% keep · $3 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,730 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $216 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.08/sh now → $9.25 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $200 is at/above CC-SS $188.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $200.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,196 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,486 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $200): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $291 (+$13,486 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-994 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,285, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-5,412 (+$7,784 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $175 | 14 Aug | 9d | 17.8% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +0pp | $285 | $950 | -$1,730 | $3,643 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $175 17.8% OTM over spot $148.52 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.05 mid) = $285 credit for the 9d cycle → $950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $176.05) 92% EV / mo +$473 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $572/mo median; plan ~$389/mo after 68% keep · $1,585 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,924 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $191 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.41/sh now → $7.36 mid-life (likely $5.83–$10.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 341 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $179 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $13 below CC-SS $188.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.95 collected) or spot ≥ $176.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,196 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,486 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $175): -$3,643 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,352 (+$9,844 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,358, the opportunity cost of earning $950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-5,412 (+$7,784 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $167.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 12.8% | 85%hist 95% | 31%hist 22% | +2pp | $495 | $1,650 | -$1,030 | $5,683 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $167.50 12.8% OTM over spot $148.52 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.87 mid) = $495 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $169.37) 87% EV / mo +$624 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 76% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $952/mo median; plan ~$647/mo after 68% keep · $2,469 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,556 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $184 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.67/sh now → $6.84 mid-life (likely $6.52–$10.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 670 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $171 (overshoots $3.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $21 below CC-SS $188.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $169.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,196 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,486 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $167.50): -$5,683 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,392 (+$7,804 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,398, the opportunity cost of earning $1,650/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$663, position total $-6,075 (+$7,121 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $162.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 9.4% | 79%hist 92% | 44%hist 32% | +3pp | $804 | $2,680 | — | $6,874 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $162.50 9.4% OTM over spot $148.52 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.89 mid) = $804 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $165.39) 83% EV / mo +$986 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,296/mo median; plan ~$882/mo after 68% keep · $3,461 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.2], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,145 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $184 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.18/sh now → $6.50 mid-life (likely $6.70–$10.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,022 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $167 (overshoots $4.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $26 below CC-SS $188.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.67/sh (~25% of the $2.68 collected) or spot ≥ $165.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,196 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,486 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $162.50): -$6,874 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,583 (+$6,613 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,589, the opportunity cost of earning $2,680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,854, position total $-7,266 (+$5,930 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $152.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 2.7% | 61%hist 78% | 81%hist 81% | +6pp | $1,575 | $5,250 | +$2,570 | $9,103 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $152.50 2.7% OTM over spot $148.52 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $5.65 mid) = $1,575 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $158.15) 72% EV / mo +$954 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,957/mo median; plan ~$1,331/mo after 68% keep · $4,265 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$178 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $186 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.26/sh now → $5.84 mid-life (likely $7.72–$10.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,962 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $156 (overshoots $3.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $36 below CC-SS $188.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.31/sh (~25% of the $5.25 collected) or spot ≥ $158.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,196 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,486 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $152.50): -$9,103 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,812 (+$4,384 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,818, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,083, position total $-9,495 (+$3,701 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 38 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.136 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,486 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-994
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.76 | 3/3 | $3,420 | $3,311 | 90% | 91% | +$1,955 | -$7,450 | 125.4% | $-7,159 (vs do-nothing $-6,165) |
| $160 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 2/3 | $3,300 | $3,437 | 86% | 88% | +$1,757 | -$5,398 | 90.9% | $-5,536 (vs do-nothing $-4,542) |
| $157.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.51 | 2/3 | $4,530 | $4,667 | 81% | 84% | +$2,109 | -$5,816 | 97.9% | $-5,954 (vs do-nothing $-4,960) |
| $162.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.68 | 3/3 | $2,680 | $2,571 | 79% | 83% | +$986 | -$6,874 | 115.7% | $-6,583 (vs do-nothing $-5,589) |
| $160 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 3/3 | $3,050 | $2,941 | 75% | 80% | +$889 | -$7,513 | 126.5% | $-7,222 (vs do-nothing $-6,228) |
| $155 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 1/3 | $3,075 | $3,457 | 74% | 80% | +$1,205 | -$3,104 | 52.3% | $-3,670 (vs do-nothing $-2,676) |
| $160 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 3/3 | $2,784 | $2,676 | 71% | 77% | +$690 | -$6,943 | 116.9% | $-6,652 (vs do-nothing $-5,658) |
| $157.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 2/3 | $2,567 | $2,704 | 71% | 78% | +$741 | -$5,348 | 90.0% | $-5,486 (vs do-nothing $-4,492) |
| $160 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 3/3 | $2,583 | $2,474 | 69% | 77% | +$627 | -$6,448 | 108.5% | $-6,157 (vs do-nothing $-5,163) |
| $157.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 3/3 | $3,066 | $2,957 | 67% | 75% | +$584 | -$7,543 | 127.0% | $-7,252 (vs do-nothing $-6,258) |
| $152.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.83 | 1/3 | $4,245 | $4,628 | 66% | 76% | +$1,418 | -$3,276 | 55.2% | $-3,842 (vs do-nothing $-2,848) |
| $155 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 2/3 | $2,933 | $3,070 | 66% | 75% | +$637 | -$5,738 | 96.6% | $-5,876 (vs do-nothing $-4,882) |
| $157.50 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 3/3 | $2,661 | $2,552 | 66% | 75% | +$419 | -$7,138 | 120.2% | $-6,847 (vs do-nothing $-5,853) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $155 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 2/3 | $2,550 | $2,687 | 64% | 74% | +$598 | -$5,258 | 88.5% | $-5,396 (vs do-nothing $-4,402) |
| $155 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.65 | 3/3 | $2,993 | $2,885 | 63% | 73% | +$430 | -$7,633 | 128.5% | $-7,342 (vs do-nothing $-6,348) |
| $152.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 2/3 | $3,500 | $3,637 | 61% | 72% | +$636 | -$6,068 | 102.2% | $-6,206 (vs do-nothing $-5,212) |
| $152.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 2/3 | $2,700 | $2,837 | 60% | 71% | +$407 | -$5,678 | 95.6% | $-5,816 (vs do-nothing $-4,822) |
| $152.50 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.75 | 3/3 | $3,424 | $3,315 | 59% | 71% | +$388 | -$8,053 | 135.6% | $-7,762 (vs do-nothing $-6,768) |
| $150 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 1/3 | $5,700 | $6,082 | 57% | 71% | +$1,545 | -$3,429 | 57.7% | $-3,995 (vs do-nothing $-3,001) |
| $150 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.00 | 2/3 | $2,609 | $2,746 | 56% | 70% | +$391 | -$5,618 | 94.6% | $-5,756 (vs do-nothing $-4,762) |
| $150 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.35 | 2/3 | $4,233 | $4,370 | 56% | 69% | +$696 | -$6,348 | 106.9% | $-6,486 (vs do-nothing $-5,492) |
| $150 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.60 | 2/3 | $3,225 | $3,362 | 56% | 70% | +$545 | -$5,898 | 99.3% | $-6,036 (vs do-nothing $-5,042) |
| $149 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.35 | 2/3 | $2,700 | $2,837 | 54% | 69% | +$368 | -$5,748 | 96.8% | $-5,886 (vs do-nothing $-4,892) |
| $149 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 2/3 | $3,169 | $3,306 | 54% | 68% | +$321 | -$6,128 | 103.2% | $-6,266 (vs do-nothing $-5,272) |
| $149 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 2/3 | $4,500 | $4,637 | 53% | 69% | +$662 | -$6,468 | 108.9% | $-6,606 (vs do-nothing $-5,612) |
| $149 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 1/3 | $5,850 | $6,232 | 53% | 69% | +$1,046 | -$3,519 | 59.2% | $-4,085 (vs do-nothing $-3,091) |
| $148 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.80 | 2/3 | $2,817 | $2,954 | 53% | 69% | +$365 | -$5,858 | 98.6% | $-5,996 (vs do-nothing $-5,002) |
| $148 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.85 | 2/3 | $3,319 | $3,456 | 52% | 68% | +$295 | -$6,248 | 105.2% | $-6,386 (vs do-nothing $-5,392) |
| $147 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.35 | 2/3 | $2,961 | $3,098 | 51% | 68% | +$384 | -$5,948 | 100.1% | $-6,086 (vs do-nothing $-5,092) |
| $148 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 1/3 | $2,400 | $2,782 | 51% | 68% | +$321 | -$3,289 | 55.4% | $-3,855 (vs do-nothing $-2,861) |
| $147 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.30 | 2/3 | $3,488 | $3,624 | 50% | 67% | +$280 | -$6,358 | 107.0% | $-6,496 (vs do-nothing $-5,502) |
| $146 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.75 | 2/3 | $3,065 | $3,202 | 50% | 67% | +$359 | -$6,068 | 102.2% | $-6,206 (vs do-nothing $-5,212) |
| $148 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 1/3 | $6,600 | $6,982 | 49% | 67% | +$1,075 | -$3,569 | 60.1% | $-4,135 (vs do-nothing $-3,141) |
| $147 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.10 | 2/3 | $4,733 | $4,870 | 49% | 66% | +$238 | -$6,798 | 114.5% | $-6,936 (vs do-nothing $-5,942) |
| $146 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.85 | 2/3 | $3,694 | $3,831 | 49% | 66% | +$294 | -$6,448 | 108.6% | $-6,586 (vs do-nothing $-5,592) |
| $146 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 1/3 | $2,600 | $2,982 | 47% | 65% | +$188 | -$3,429 | 57.7% | $-3,995 (vs do-nothing $-3,001) |
| $147 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 1/3 | $7,125 | $7,508 | 45% | 65% | +$805 | -$3,634 | 61.2% | $-4,200 (vs do-nothing $-3,206) |
| $146 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.50 | 1/3 | $8,250 | $8,632 | 41% | 64% | +$1,062 | -$3,659 | 61.6% | $-4,225 (vs do-nothing $-3,231) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.