3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $182.40 | CC-SS: $189.37 (banked floor $184.91) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $43,440 | (ND $19.80 + SW $125) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $4,536/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $106/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,980 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3x $195C 14 Aug 2026 | U18827291 | $3.70 | $1,110 | 2026-07-23 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 3 × $160 | 79% | $2,858 | $372 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $190 | 14 Aug | 8d | 28.9% | 99%hist 99% | 1%hist 1% | -4pp | $30 | $112 | -$2,745 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $190 28.9% OTM over spot $147.44 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.30 mid) = $30 credit for the 8d cycle → $112/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $190.30) 99% EV / mo +$102 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -4pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-22/mo median; plan ~$-15/mo after 68% keep · $-49 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,479 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $203 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.82/sh now → $8.36 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $190 is at/above CC-SS $189.37: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $190.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,289 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $190): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $309 (+$14,289 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,460 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,769, the opportunity cost of earning $112/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-5,821 (+$8,159 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 3 × $170 | 14 Aug | 8d | 15.3% | 92%hist 99% | 16%hist 6% | +0pp | $288 | $1,080 | -$1,778 | $5,522 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $170 15.3% OTM over spot $147.44 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.12 mid) = $288 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $171.12) 93% EV / mo +$713 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $658/mo median; plan ~$447/mo after 68% keep · $2,359 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,780 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $183 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.75/sh now → $6.89 mid-life (likely $5.90–$9.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 364 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $174 (overshoots $3.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $19 below CC-SS $189.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.96 collected) or spot ≥ $171.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,289 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $170): -$5,522 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,213 (+$8,767 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,460 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,753, the opportunity cost of earning $1,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$126, position total $-5,947 (+$8,033 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 3 × $165 | 14 Aug | 8d | 11.9% | 86%hist 95% | 30%hist 18% | +3pp | $483 | $1,811 | -$1,046 | $6,827 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $165 11.9% OTM over spot $147.44 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.75 mid) = $483 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,811/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $166.75) 88% EV / mo +$845 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $973/mo median; plan ~$662/mo after 68% keep · $3,910 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,481 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $180 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.26/sh now → $6.55 mid-life (likely $5.84–$9.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 584 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $169 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $24 below CC-SS $189.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.61 collected) or spot ≥ $166.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,289 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $165): -$6,827 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,518 (+$7,462 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,460 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,058, the opportunity cost of earning $1,811/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,431, position total $-7,252 (+$6,728 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $160 | 14 Aug | 8d | 8.5% | 79%hist 92% | 44%hist 32% | +4pp | $762 | $2,858 | — | $8,048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $160 8.5% OTM over spot $147.44 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.68 mid) = $762 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,858/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $162.68) 83% EV / mo +$1,170 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,338/mo median; plan ~$910/mo after 68% keep · $4,240 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,101 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $180 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.78/sh now → $6.21 mid-life (likely $6.26–$9.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 945 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $163 (overshoots $3.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $29 below CC-SS $189.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.54 collected) or spot ≥ $162.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,289 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $160): -$8,048 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,739 (+$6,241 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,460 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,279, the opportunity cost of earning $2,858/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,652, position total $-8,473 (+$5,507 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 3 × $152.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 3.4% | 64%hist 78% | 74%hist 59% | +7pp | $1,245 | $4,669 | +$1,811 | $9,815 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $152.50 3.4% OTM over spot $147.44 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $4.68 mid) = $1,245 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,669/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $157.18) 74% EV / mo +$959 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,708/mo median; plan ~$1,161/mo after 68% keep · $4,825 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$472 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $185 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.09/sh now → $5.72 mid-life (likely $7.23–$10.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,750 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $156 (overshoots $3.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $37 below CC-SS $189.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.04/sh (~25% of the $4.15 collected) or spot ≥ $157.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,289 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $152.50): -$9,815 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,506 (+$4,474 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,460 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,046, the opportunity cost of earning $4,669/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $171.38 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,419, position total $-10,240 (+$3,740 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.136 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$14,289 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,460
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.54 | 3/3 | $2,858 | $2,751 | 79% | 83% | +$1,170 | -$8,048 | 135.5% | $-7,739 (vs do-nothing $-6,279) |
| $157.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 3/3 | $3,375 | $3,269 | 75% | 80% | +$1,163 | -$8,660 | 145.8% | $-8,351 (vs do-nothing $-6,891) |
| $160 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 3/3 | $2,370 | $2,264 | 73% | 79% | +$581 | -$7,625 | 128.4% | $-7,316 (vs do-nothing $-5,856) |
| $157.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 3/3 | $2,790 | $2,684 | 70% | 77% | +$643 | -$8,165 | 137.5% | $-7,856 (vs do-nothing $-6,396) |
| $155 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 2/3 | $2,775 | $2,863 | 70% | 77% | +$856 | -$6,133 | 103.3% | $-6,414 (vs do-nothing $-4,954) |
| $157.50 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.95 | 3/3 | $2,434 | $2,328 | 68% | 76% | +$441 | -$7,775 | 130.9% | $-7,466 (vs do-nothing $-6,006) |
| $155 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 3/3 | $3,240 | $3,134 | 66% | 75% | +$673 | -$8,690 | 146.3% | $-8,381 (vs do-nothing $-6,921) |
| $155 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.00 | 3/3 | $2,864 | $2,757 | 65% | 74% | +$556 | -$8,210 | 138.2% | $-7,901 (vs do-nothing $-6,441) |
| $152.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 2/3 | $3,113 | $3,200 | 64% | 74% | +$640 | -$6,543 | 110.2% | $-6,824 (vs do-nothing $-5,364) |
| $152.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.25 | 2/3 | $2,500 | $2,588 | 62% | 73% | +$462 | -$6,123 | 103.1% | $-6,404 (vs do-nothing $-4,944) |
| $152.50 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.60 | 3/3 | $3,109 | $3,003 | 61% | 72% | +$444 | -$8,780 | 147.8% | $-8,471 (vs do-nothing $-7,011) |
| $150 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 2/3 | $3,788 | $3,875 | 58% | 71% | +$636 | -$6,863 | 115.5% | $-7,144 (vs do-nothing $-5,684) |
| $150 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.30 | 2/3 | $2,920 | $3,008 | 58% | 71% | +$504 | -$6,413 | 108.0% | $-6,694 (vs do-nothing $-5,234) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.45 | 2/3 | $2,577 | $2,665 | 57% | 71% | +$533 | -$5,983 | 100.7% | $-6,264 (vs do-nothing $-4,804) |
| $149 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 2/3 | $4,088 | $4,175 | 56% | 70% | +$628 | -$6,983 | 117.6% | $-7,264 (vs do-nothing $-5,804) |
| $149 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.00 | 2/3 | $2,455 | $2,542 | 56% | 70% | +$294 | -$6,273 | 105.6% | $-6,554 (vs do-nothing $-5,094) |
| $149 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.75 | 2/3 | $3,100 | $3,188 | 56% | 70% | +$517 | -$6,523 | 109.8% | $-6,804 (vs do-nothing $-5,344) |
| $148 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.50 | 2/3 | $2,591 | $2,678 | 54% | 69% | +$309 | -$6,373 | 107.3% | $-6,654 (vs do-nothing $-5,194) |
| $148 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.15 | 2/3 | $3,260 | $3,348 | 54% | 69% | +$502 | -$6,643 | 111.8% | $-6,924 (vs do-nothing $-5,464) |
| $148 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.85 | 2/3 | $4,388 | $4,475 | 54% | 69% | +$597 | -$7,103 | 119.6% | $-7,384 (vs do-nothing $-5,924) |
| $147 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.85 | 2/3 | $2,686 | $2,774 | 53% | 69% | +$279 | -$6,503 | 109.5% | $-6,784 (vs do-nothing $-5,324) |
| $147 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.00 | 2/3 | $3,200 | $3,288 | 52% | 68% | +$258 | -$6,873 | 115.7% | $-7,154 (vs do-nothing $-5,694) |
| $146 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.35 | 2/3 | $2,823 | $2,910 | 51% | 68% | +$283 | -$6,603 | 111.2% | $-6,884 (vs do-nothing $-5,424) |
| $147 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 1/3 | $2,475 | $2,757 | 51% | 68% | +$402 | -$3,577 | 60.2% | $-4,447 (vs do-nothing $-2,987) |
| $146 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 2/3 | $3,120 | $3,208 | 50% | 67% | $-16 | -$7,113 | 119.8% | $-7,394 (vs do-nothing $-5,934) |
| $145 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.80 | 2/3 | $2,945 | $3,033 | 50% | 67% | +$269 | -$6,713 | 113.0% | $-6,994 (vs do-nothing $-5,534) |
| $146 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 1/3 | $2,550 | $2,832 | 48% | 67% | +$289 | -$3,657 | 61.6% | $-4,527 (vs do-nothing $-3,067) |
| $145 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.65 | 2/3 | $3,860 | $3,948 | 48% | 67% | +$520 | -$6,943 | 116.9% | $-7,224 (vs do-nothing $-5,764) |
| $145 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.45 | 1/3 | $2,794 | $3,075 | 46% | 66% | +$332 | -$3,692 | 62.2% | $-4,562 (vs do-nothing $-3,102) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.