8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $218.60 (banked floor $215.80) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $11,506/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $289/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-64,860 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 21 Aug 2026 · 3d | 7 × $160 | 88% | $5,950 | $4,614 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 28 Aug 2026 · 10d | 8 × $160 | 78% | $5,904 | $1,091 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $185 | 21 Aug | 3d | 25.1% | 99%hist 97% | 2%hist 1% | +1pp | $30 | $300 | -$5,650 | $20,131 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $185 25.1% OTM over spot $147.92 21 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.14 mid) = $30 credit for the 3d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $185.13) 99% EV / mo +$241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-32/mo median; plan ~$-22/mo after 68% keep · $-155 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.3], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,754 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $215 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.56/sh now → $4.64 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $34 below CC-SS $218.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $185.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $169.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.18 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,723 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $185): -$20,131 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $210): -$1,716 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,984 (+$44,876 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,002 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,982, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-44,154 (+$20,706 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 7 × $162.50 | 21 Aug | 3d | 9.9% | 92%hist 97% | 17%hist 10% | +7pp | $413 | $4,130 | -$1,820 | $38,858 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $162.50 9.9% OTM over spot $147.92 21 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.62 mid) = $413 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,130/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $163.12) 93% EV / mo +$2,614 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,526/mo median; plan ~$1,717/mo after 68% keep · $15,634 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.6-4.9], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,176 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $187 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.23/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $3.45–$6.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 219 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $166 (overshoots $3.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $56 below CC-SS $218.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $163.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $169.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.18 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,723 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $162.50): -$38,858 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$858 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,853 (+$27,007 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,002 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,851, the opportunity cost of earning $4,130/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,732, position total $-48,888 (+$15,972 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $162.50 | 21 Aug | 3d | 9.9% | 92%hist 97% | 17%hist 10% | +8pp | $472 | $4,720 | -$1,230 | $44,409 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $162.50 9.9% OTM over spot $147.92 21 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.62 mid) = $472 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $163.12) 93% EV / mo +$2,987 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,908/mo median; plan ~$1,978/mo after 68% keep · $17,454 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.5-4.6], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,487 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $187 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.23/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $3.25–$6.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 221 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $165 (overshoots $3.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $56 below CC-SS $218.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $163.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $169.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.18 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,723 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $162.50): -$44,409 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,546 (+$22,314 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,002 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,544, the opportunity cost of earning $4,720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,408, position total $-49,566 (+$15,294 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $160 | 21 Aug | 3d | 8.2% | 88%hist 87% | 24%hist 25% | +11pp | $595 | $5,950 | — | $40,426 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $160 8.2% OTM over spot $147.92 21 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.89 mid) = $595 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $160.89) 90% EV / mo +$3,415 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,403/mo median; plan ~$2,314/mo after 68% keep · $21,009 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.6-5.4], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,925 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $187 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.09/sh now → $3.60 mid-life (likely $3.41–$6.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 402 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $163 (overshoots $3.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $59 below CC-SS $218.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $160.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $169.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.18 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,723 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $160): -$40,426 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$858 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,421 (+$25,439 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,002 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,419, the opportunity cost of earning $5,950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,300, position total $-50,456 (+$14,404 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $155 | 21 Aug | 3d | 4.8% | 77%hist 85% | 47%hist 38% | +15pp | $1,312 | $13,120 | +$7,170 | $49,569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $155 4.8% OTM over spot $147.92 21 Aug 2026 (3d, $1.71 mid) = $1,312 credit for the 3d cycle → $13,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $156.72) 82% EV / mo +$5,203 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,808/mo median; plan ~$3,949/mo after 68% keep · $30,743 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.3], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,414 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $187 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.82/sh now → $3.41 mid-life (likely $3.66–$6.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 881 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $158 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $64 below CC-SS $218.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $156.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $169.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.18 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,723 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $155): -$49,569 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,706 (+$17,154 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,002 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,704, the opportunity cost of earning $13,120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,568, position total $-54,726 (+$10,134 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 7 × $190 | 28 Aug | 10d | 28.4% | 98%hist 97% | 5%hist 1% | +0pp | $105 | $315 | -$5,589 | $19,916 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $190 28.4% OTM over spot $147.92 28 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.55 mid) = $105 credit for the 10d cycle → $315/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $190.55) 98% EV / mo +$165 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 41% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-34/mo median; plan ~$-23/mo after 68% keep · $-187 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,314 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $202 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.94/sh now → $7.74 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $29 below CC-SS $218.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $190.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $169.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.18 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,723 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $190): -$19,916 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$858 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,911 (+$45,949 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,002 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,909, the opportunity cost of earning $315/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-44,156 (+$20,704 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $170 | 28 Aug | 10d | 14.9% | 90%hist 97% | 20%hist 25% | +4pp | $848 | $2,544 | -$3,360 | $38,033 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $170 14.9% OTM over spot $147.92 28 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.14 mid) = $848 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,544/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $171.13) 91% EV / mo +$1,327 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,325/mo median; plan ~$901/mo after 68% keep · $9,429 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.7-5.1], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,205 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $182 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.93/sh now → $6.32 mid-life (likely $5.26–$8.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 360 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $173 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $49 below CC-SS $218.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $171.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $169.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.18 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,723 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $170): -$38,033 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,170 (+$28,690 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,002 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,168, the opportunity cost of earning $2,544/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-44,158 (+$20,702 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $165 | 28 Aug | 10d | 11.5% | 85%hist 87% | 30%hist 30% | +6pp | $1,288 | $3,864 | -$2,040 | $41,593 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $165 11.5% OTM over spot $147.92 28 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.66 mid) = $1,288 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,864/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $166.66) 87% EV / mo +$1,752 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,896/mo median; plan ~$1,290/mo after 68% keep · $13,071 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.9-5.3], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,498 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $180 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.46/sh now → $5.98 mid-life (likely $5.40–$8.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 581 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $168 (overshoots $3.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $54 below CC-SS $218.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.61 collected) or spot ≥ $166.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $169.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.18 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,723 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $165): -$41,593 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,730 (+$25,130 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,002 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,728, the opportunity cost of earning $3,864/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,592, position total $-46,750 (+$18,110 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $160 | 28 Aug | 10d | 8.2% | 78%hist 85% | 45%hist 38% | +6pp | $1,968 | $5,904 | — | $44,913 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $160 8.2% OTM over spot $147.92 28 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.56 mid) = $1,968 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,904/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $162.56) 82% EV / mo +$2,241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,560/mo median; plan ~$1,741/mo after 68% keep · $18,233 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.6-5.3], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,559 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $177 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.00/sh now → $5.66 mid-life (likely $5.65–$8.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,018 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $163 (overshoots $2.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $59 below CC-SS $218.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.61/sh (~25% of the $2.46 collected) or spot ≥ $162.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $169.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.18 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,723 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $160): -$44,913 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,050 (+$21,810 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,002 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,048, the opportunity cost of earning $5,904/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,912, position total $-50,070 (+$14,790 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $150 | 28 Aug | 10d | 1.4% | 57%hist 69% | 89%hist 79% | +10pp | $3,850 | $11,550 | +$5,646 | $44,171 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $150 1.4% OTM over spot $147.92 28 Aug 2026 (10d, $5.72 mid) = $3,850 credit for the 10d cycle → $11,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $150) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $155.72) 71% EV / mo +$2,565 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,147/mo median; plan ~$2,140/mo after 68% keep · $23,188 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.9-5.3], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$325 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $180 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.12/sh now → $5.04 mid-life (likely $6.83–$9.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,169 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $153 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $150 is $69 below CC-SS $218.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.38/sh (~25% of the $5.50 collected) or spot ≥ $155.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $169.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.18 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,860 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$66,723 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $150): -$44,171 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$858 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,166 (+$21,694 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,002 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,164, the opportunity cost of earning $11,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $169.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,045, position total $-54,201 (+$10,659 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.180 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$66,723 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,002
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 3d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 7/8 | $5,950 | $5,667 | 88% | 90% | +$3,415 | -$40,426 | 300.8% | $-39,421 (vs do-nothing $-34,419) |
| $157.50 | 3d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.12 | 6/8 | $6,720 | $6,443 | 83% | 86% | +$3,081 | -$35,989 | 267.8% | $-35,842 (vs do-nothing $-30,840) |
| $160 | 10d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.46 | 8/8 | $5,904 | $5,615 | 78% | 82% | +$2,241 | -$44,913 | 334.2% | $-43,050 (vs do-nothing $-38,048) |
| $155 | 3d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.64 | 4/8 | $6,560 | $6,295 | 77% | 82% | +$2,602 | -$24,784 | 184.4% | $-26,354 (vs do-nothing $-21,352) |
| $157.50 | 10d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.60 | 8/8 | $6,240 | $5,951 | 74% | 79% | +$1,443 | -$46,801 | 348.2% | $-44,938 (vs do-nothing $-39,936) |
| $152.50 | 3d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.27 | 3/8 | $6,810 | $6,551 | 69% | 77% | +$2,182 | -$19,149 | 142.5% | $-21,577 (vs do-nothing $-16,575) |
| $155 | 10d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.65 | 6/8 | $6,570 | $6,293 | 69% | 77% | +$1,890 | -$35,971 | 267.6% | $-35,824 (vs do-nothing $-30,822) |
| $155 | 17d | 4 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 7/8 | $6,547 | $6,264 | 66% | 75% | +$1,567 | -$40,811 | 303.7% | $-39,806 (vs do-nothing $-34,804) |
| $155 | 24d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.15 | 8/8 | $6,150 | $5,861 | 65% | 74% | +$1,090 | -$45,961 | 342.0% | $-44,098 (vs do-nothing $-39,096) |
| $152.50 | 10d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 5/8 | $5,850 | $5,579 | 63% | 73% | +$821 | -$31,101 | 231.4% | $-31,812 (vs do-nothing $-26,810) |
| $152.50 | 17d | 4 Sep 2026 | $5.65 | 6/8 | $5,982 | $5,706 | 61% | 72% | +$822 | -$36,271 | 269.9% | $-36,124 (vs do-nothing $-31,122) |
| $152.50 | 24d | 11 Sep 2026 | $6.90 | 7/8 | $6,038 | $5,755 | 61% | 72% | +$838 | -$41,441 | 308.3% | $-40,436 (vs do-nothing $-35,434) |
| $150 | 3d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 2/8 | $6,200 | $5,947 | 60% | 72% | +$1,579 | -$13,100 | 97.5% | $-16,386 (vs do-nothing $-11,384) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | 10d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.50 | 4/8 | $6,600 | $6,335 | 57% | 71% | +$1,466 | -$25,240 | 187.8% | $-26,810 (vs do-nothing $-21,808) |
| $150 | 17d | 4 Sep 2026 | $6.65 | 5/8 | $5,868 | $5,597 | 57% | 70% | +$702 | -$30,976 | 230.5% | $-31,687 (vs do-nothing $-26,685) |
| $150 | 24d | 11 Sep 2026 | $7.90 | 6/8 | $5,925 | $5,648 | 57% | 71% | +$715 | -$36,421 | 271.0% | $-36,274 (vs do-nothing $-31,272) |
| $149 | 3d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 2/8 | $7,100 | $6,847 | 56% | 71% | +$1,712 | -$13,210 | 98.3% | $-16,496 (vs do-nothing $-11,494) |
| $149 | 24d | 11 Sep 2026 | $8.80 | 6/8 | $6,600 | $6,323 | 55% | 70% | +$1,062 | -$36,481 | 271.4% | $-36,334 (vs do-nothing $-31,332) |
| $149 | 10d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.00 | 4/8 | $6,000 | $5,735 | 55% | 69% | +$358 | -$25,840 | 192.3% | $-27,410 (vs do-nothing $-22,408) |
| $149 | 17d | 4 Sep 2026 | $6.45 | 6/8 | $6,829 | $6,553 | 55% | 69% | +$173 | -$37,891 | 281.9% | $-37,744 (vs do-nothing $-32,742) |
| $148 | 24d | 11 Sep 2026 | $8.85 | 6/8 | $6,638 | $6,361 | 53% | 69% | +$755 | -$37,051 | 275.7% | $-36,904 (vs do-nothing $-31,902) |
| $148 | 17d | 4 Sep 2026 | $8.15 | 4/8 | $5,753 | $5,488 | 53% | 69% | +$992 | -$24,980 | 185.9% | $-26,550 (vs do-nothing $-21,548) |
| $148 | 10d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.25 | 4/8 | $7,500 | $7,235 | 52% | 68% | +$1,313 | -$25,740 | 191.5% | $-27,310 (vs do-nothing $-22,308) |
| $148 | 3d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 2/8 | $7,800 | $7,547 | 52% | 68% | +$1,546 | -$13,340 | 99.3% | $-16,626 (vs do-nothing $-11,624) |
| $147 | 24d | 11 Sep 2026 | $9.00 | 6/8 | $6,750 | $6,473 | 52% | 68% | +$508 | -$37,561 | 279.5% | $-37,414 (vs do-nothing $-32,412) |
| $147 | 17d | 4 Sep 2026 | $7.85 | 5/8 | $6,926 | $6,656 | 51% | 67% | +$551 | -$31,876 | 237.2% | $-32,587 (vs do-nothing $-27,585) |
| $146 | 24d | 11 Sep 2026 | $9.50 | 5/8 | $5,938 | $5,667 | 50% | 67% | +$423 | -$31,551 | 234.8% | $-32,262 (vs do-nothing $-27,260) |
| $147 | 10d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 4/8 | $7,320 | $7,055 | 50% | 67% | +$550 | -$26,200 | 194.9% | $-27,770 (vs do-nothing $-22,768) |
| $146 | 17d | 4 Sep 2026 | $7.85 | 5/8 | $6,926 | $6,656 | 49% | 66% | +$104 | -$32,376 | 240.9% | $-33,087 (vs do-nothing $-28,085) |
| $145 | 24d | 11 Sep 2026 | $10.10 | 5/8 | $6,312 | $6,042 | 48% | 67% | +$472 | -$31,751 | 236.2% | $-32,462 (vs do-nothing $-27,460) |
| $147 | 3d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.45 | 2/8 | $8,900 | $8,647 | 47% | 67% | +$1,679 | -$13,430 | 99.9% | $-16,716 (vs do-nothing $-11,714) |
| $146 | 10d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 3/8 | $5,940 | $5,681 | 47% | 66% | +$395 | -$19,800 | 147.3% | $-22,228 (vs do-nothing $-17,226) |
| $145 | 17d | 4 Sep 2026 | $8.75 | 4/8 | $6,176 | $5,912 | 47% | 65% | +$344 | -$25,940 | 193.0% | $-27,510 (vs do-nothing $-22,508) |
| $145 | 10d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.70 | 3/8 | $6,930 | $6,671 | 44% | 65% | +$889 | -$19,770 | 147.1% | $-22,198 (vs do-nothing $-17,196) |
| $146 | 3d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 2/8 | $9,900 | $9,647 | 43% | 65% | +$1,607 | -$13,530 | 100.7% | $-16,816 (vs do-nothing $-11,814) |
| $145 | 3d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 2/8 | $10,500 | $10,247 | 38% | 63% | +$1,031 | -$13,670 | 101.7% | $-16,956 (vs do-nothing $-11,954) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.