COIN-LC165 @ $152.27 UNDERWATER $58.63 (27.8% below BE SS)
8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $218.06 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $165 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $101.085/sh)
SP: $240 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $85.833/sh)
HP: $85 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $2.740/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $12,975/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $718/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-59,312 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,488/mo
HEDGE COVER
$718/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$12,975/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $13,440
ML VELOCITY
10.6 mo to earn back $137,440
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $218 brings only $1,380/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 15 (live) · RSI 36 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 32 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $178.83 (+17%) · daily UBB $172.65 · 1-wk expected move ±$15 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 7 contracts at $162 / 9d. This is the safest strike (survival 72%, breach 28%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($6,488/mo); it brings $6,673/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 8 × $155/9d for $13,733/mo, but breach risk rises to 44% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 6 × $185/9d (95% survival, $760/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $36,887 (274% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $211, recoverable in 2.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 7 contracts realizes $-52,034 and cuts bleed by $628/mo.
📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first
Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 8 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again).
🎯
Engine pick: sell
7 × $162 (primary) —
72% survival, breach
28%,
$6,673/mo.
⚖️
Worth a safer step: the
$168 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to
80% (breach 28% → 20%) for
$1,927/mo less (29% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium.
Lean: the safer $168 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect COIN to stay flat-to-down near term.
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on COIN are the tiebreakers.
🎯 50% normal · sell 7×$162, 6.7% OTM, 72% surv
Sell 7 × $162 6.7% OTM over spot $152.27 10 Jul 2026 (9d, $3.05 mid)
= $2,002 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,673/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $162)
72%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,991
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$185 @ 81% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.06/sh now → $5.70 mid-life (likely $6.34–$9.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,283 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $166 (overshoots $3.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (7 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$162 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$2.60/sh | +$1,818 cycle +$3,820 [+$1,327…+$1,920] · 100% credit | 64% surv 50% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$170 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | +$1.61/sh | +$1,126 cycle +$3,128 [+$301…+$1,179] · 90% credit | 70% surv 61% |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$168 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.39/sh | +$271 cycle +$2,273 [-$430…+$262] · 35% credit | 69% surv 59% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$185 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | -$2.32/sh | -$1,625 cycle +$377 [-$3,042…-$1,831] · 2% credit | 81% surv 78% |
| budget: banked $2,002 debit $1,625 (81% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$377 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $3,947/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,673/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,488/mo) | +3% |
| vs normal income ($12,975/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,128/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $162 is $56 below CC-SS $218: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$36,887 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 274.5% |
| … as % of ML ($137,440) | 26.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.8 mo |
| Surgical close (7 ct) | $-52,034 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.86 collected) or spot ≥ $165.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $160.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Let expire; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$161-165.56 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $165.56 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $162.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,002 | $-47,995 | +$11,317 | +$1,358 |
| +2.5% | $166.56 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-842 | $-47,176 | +$12,136 | -$1,486 |
| +5% | $170.62 (1.1σ) | $-3,686 | $-46,357 | +$12,955 | -$4,330 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (3.4σ) | $-31,878 | $-40,327 | +$18,985 | -$17,892 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.06, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,312
− CC assignment net of premium (7 × $162): -$36,887
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $190): -$2,714
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,600 (+$19,712 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,892, the opportunity cost of earning $6,673/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $178.83 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,429, position total $-44,703 (+$14,609 vs today)
33% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 8×$168, 10.0% OTM, 80% surv
Sell 8 × $168 10.0% OTM over spot $152.27 10 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.96 mid)
= $1,424 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,747/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $168)
80%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,383
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$185 @ 77% POP
72% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.50/sh now → $6.01 mid-life (likely $5.96–$9.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 837 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $171 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$168 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$2.73/sh | +$2,188 cycle +$3,612 [+$1,709…+$2,595] · 100% credit | 64% surv 50% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$175 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | +$1.84/sh | +$1,475 cycle +$2,899 [+$681…+$1,892] · 94% credit | 70% surv 61% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$173 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.51/sh | +$411 cycle +$1,835 [-$267…+$709] · 55% credit | 69% surv 59% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$180 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$116 cycle +$1,540 [-$875…+$455] · 35% credit | 74% surv 67% |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$185 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | -$1.21/sh | -$968 cycle +$456 [-$2,210…-$747] · 13% credit | 77% surv 72% |
| budget: banked $1,424 debit $968 (68% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$456 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $6,398/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,747/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,488/mo) | -27% |
| vs normal income ($12,975/mo) | 37% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,029/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $168 is $51 below CC-SS $218: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$39,020 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 290.3% |
| … as % of ML ($137,440) | 28.4% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.0 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-59,452 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.78 collected) or spot ≥ $169.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $165.82 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Let expire; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$166-169.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $169.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $167.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,424 | $-44,157 | +$15,155 | +$688 |
| +2.5% | $171.69 (1.1σ) | $-1,926 | $-43,731 | +$15,581 | -$2,662 |
| +5% | $175.88 (1.4σ) | $-5,276 | $-43,306 | +$16,006 | -$6,012 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (3.4σ) | $-33,296 | $-39,747 | +$19,565 | -$17,312 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.06, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,312
− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $168): -$39,020
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,020 (+$20,292 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,312, the opportunity cost of earning $4,747/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $178.83 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,640, position total $-43,006 (+$16,306 vs today)
100% normal · sell 8×$155, 1.8% OTM, 56% surv
Sell 8 × $155 1.8% OTM over spot $152.27 10 Jul 2026 (9d, $5.58 mid)
= $4,120 credit for the 9d cycle → $13,733/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $155)
56%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$89
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$193 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.44/sh now → $5.26 mid-life (likely $7.13–$9.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,109 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $159 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (8 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$155 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$2.40/sh | +$1,917 cycle +$6,037 [+$1,223…+$1,590] · 100% credit | 64% surv 50% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$163 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | +$1.27/sh | +$1,016 cycle +$5,136 [-$224…+$427] · 61% credit | 71% surv 62% |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$160 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.21/sh | +$165 cycle +$4,285 [-$887…-$325] · 12% credit | 70% surv 60% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$193 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | -$4.04/sh | -$3,232 cycle +$888 [-$6,069…-$4,372] | 91% surv 90% |
| budget: banked $4,120 debit $3,232 (78% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$888 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,627/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,733/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,488/mo) | +112% |
| vs normal income ($12,975/mo) | 106% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,016/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $155 is $63 below CC-SS $218: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$46,324 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 344.7% |
| … as % of ML ($137,440) | 33.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.6 mo |
| Surgical close (8 ct) | $-59,652 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.29/sh (~25% of the $5.15 collected) or spot ≥ $160.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $153.45 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Let expire; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$153-160.57 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $160.57 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $155.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $4,120 | $-52,731 | +$6,581 | +$3,384 |
| +2.5% | $158.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,020 | $-52,337 | +$6,975 | +$284 |
| +5% | $162.75 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,080 | $-51,943 | +$7,369 | -$2,816 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (3.4σ) | $-40,600 | $-47,051 | +$12,261 | -$24,616 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.06, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,312
− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $155): -$46,324
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,324 (+$12,988 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,616, the opportunity cost of earning $13,733/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $178.83 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,944, position total $-50,310 (+$9,002 vs today)
cover hedge · sell 6×$185, 21.5% OTM, 95% surv
Sell 6 × $185 21.5% OTM over spot $152.27 10 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.44 mid)
= $228 credit for the 9d cycle → $760/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $185)
95%
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike)
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,055
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$198 @ 72% POP
64% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.09/sh now → $7.14 mid-life (likely $5.08–$8.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 185 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $188 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$185 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$3.25/sh | +$1,947 cycle +$2,175 [+$2,029…+$3,074] · 100% credit | 64% surv 50% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$198 | 24 Jul 2026 | 18d left | +$0.91/sh | +$547 cycle +$775 [+$379…+$1,699] · 88% credit | 72% surv 64% |
| SS $211 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$193 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.17/sh | +$100 cycle +$328 [-$44…+$967] · 71% credit | 70% surv 61% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
| Gross FIGHT income | $760/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,488/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($12,975/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $387/mo |
Downside budget
⚠ $185 is $33 below CC-SS $218: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$19,605 |
| … as % of IC ($13,440) | 145.9% |
| … as % of ML ($137,440) | 14.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (6 ct) | $-44,520 |
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $185.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 5d left | 3-4d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|
| Below $183.15 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Let expire; re-sell next cycle. |
Pressing the strike
$183-185.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
Through breakeven
≥ $185.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.13 (IBKR)
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|
| at strike | $185.00 (1.9σ) | $228 | $-29,391 | +$29,921 | -$324 |
| +2.5% | $189.62 (2.2σ) | $-2,547 | $-27,996 | +$31,316 | -$3,099 |
| +5% | $194.25 (2.5σ) | $-5,322 | $-27,451 | +$31,861 | -$3,324 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $210.90 (3.4σ) | $-15,312 | $-25,759 | +$33,553 | -$3,324 |
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.06, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,312
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,312
− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $185): -$19,605
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $190): -$5,427
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,032 (+$34,280 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,708 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,324, the opportunity cost of earning $760/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $178.83 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-35,182 (+$24,130 vs today)
FIGHT CC options
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.127 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$59,312 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-21,708
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $162 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 7/8 | $6,673 | $6,128 | 72% | 77% | +$1,583 | -$36,887 | 274.5% | $-39,600 (vs do-nothing $-17,892) |
| $160 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 6/8 | $7,100 | $6,727 | 67% | 74% | +$1,460 | -$32,703 | 243.3% | $-38,130 (vs do-nothing $-16,422) |
| $162 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 8/8 | $7,350 | $6,632 | 67% | 74% | +$1,571 | -$40,524 | 301.5% | $-40,524 (vs do-nothing $-18,816) |
| $160 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 7/8 | $7,547 | $7,002 | 63% | 72% | +$1,504 | -$36,614 | 272.4% | $-39,327 (vs do-nothing $-17,619) |
| $158 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 5/8 | $6,917 | $6,716 | 62% | 71% | +$914 | -$28,203 | 209.8% | $-36,343 (vs do-nothing $-14,635) |
| $160 | 23d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 7/8 | $6,665 | $6,120 | 61% | 71% | +$1,171 | -$35,529 | 264.4% | $-38,242 (vs do-nothing $-16,534) |
| $158 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 6/8 | $7,369 | $6,996 | 59% | 69% | +$1,211 | -$32,403 | 241.1% | $-37,830 (vs do-nothing $-16,122) |
| $155 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 4/8 | $6,867 | $6,839 | 56% | 68% | +$811 | -$23,162 | 172.3% | $-34,016 (vs do-nothing $-12,308) |
| $155 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 5/8 | $7,078 | $6,878 | 55% | 67% | +$1,014 | -$27,753 | 206.5% | $-35,893 (vs do-nothing $-14,185) |
| $155 | 23d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.10 | 6/8 | $7,122 | $6,749 | 54% | 67% | +$915 | -$32,373 | 240.9% | $-37,800 (vs do-nothing $-16,092) |
| $152 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/8 | $6,500 | $6,645 | 51% | 66% | +$849 | -$17,717 | 131.8% | $-31,284 (vs do-nothing $-9,576) |
| $152 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 4/8 | $6,488 | $6,460 | 50% | 65% | +$790 | -$22,762 | 169.4% | $-33,616 (vs do-nothing $-11,908) |
| $150 | 23d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.40 | 5/8 | $7,435 | $7,235 | 47% | 64% | +$723 | -$28,328 | 210.8% | $-36,468 (vs do-nothing $-14,760) |
Show 2 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $150 | 16d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 4/8 | $7,388 | $7,360 | 46% | 63% | +$742 | -$23,282 | 173.2% | $-34,136 (vs do-nothing $-12,428) |
| $150 | 9d | 10 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 3/8 | $7,450 | $7,595 | 45% | 63% | +$513 | -$18,182 | 135.3% | $-31,749 (vs do-nothing $-10,041) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.
Legend
| BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike) | The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS. |
| Max Loss (ML) | Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike. |
| Normal income | At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS). |
| 50% income floor | The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it |
| Hedge rolling cost | Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares |
| POP (mid) | Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available |
| Survival | Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike) |
| EV/mo | Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%) |
| CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike) | The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager). |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS | (CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS. |
| %IC / %ML | Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary) |
| Recovery months | Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income |
| Conservative CC | Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts |