8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $214.01 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $14,229/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $512/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-47,172 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 7 × $172.50 | 76% | $7,530 | $1,760 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $205 | 17 Jul | 7d | 26.7% | 99% | 2% | $120 | $514 | -$7,016 | $7,091 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $205 26.7% OTM over spot $161.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $120 credit for the 7d cycle → $514/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $205.18) 99% EV / mo +$464 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-808 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,209 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $228 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.42/sh now → $6.66 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $9 below CC-SS $214.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $205.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,172 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,706 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $205): -$7,091 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,557 (+$40,615 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,293 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,264, the opportunity cost of earning $514/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-31,107 (+$16,065 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $185 | 17 Jul | 7d | 14.4% | 91% | 18% | $648 | $2,777 | -$4,753 | $22,563 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $185 14.4% OTM over spot $161.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.88 mid) = $648 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,777/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $185.88) 92% EV / mo +$1,350 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-4.2] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,853 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,819 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $208 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.89/sh now → $5.58 mid-life (likely $4.66–$7.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $189 (overshoots $3.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $29 below CC-SS $214.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $185.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,172 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,706 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $185): -$22,563 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,029 (+$25,143 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,293 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,736, the opportunity cost of earning $2,777/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-31,107 (+$16,065 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 7 × $177.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.7% | 84% | 34% | $1,113 | $4,770 | -$2,760 | $24,446 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $177.50 9.7% OTM over spot $161.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.68 mid) = $1,113 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,770/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $179.18) 86% EV / mo +$1,789 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-4.1] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,716 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,530 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $206 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.36/sh now → $5.20 mid-life (likely $5.17–$7.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 737 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $181 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $37 below CC-SS $214.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.59 collected) or spot ≥ $179.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,172 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,706 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $177.50): -$24,446 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$353 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,266 (+$22,906 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,293 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,973, the opportunity cost of earning $4,770/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$182, position total $-31,241 (+$15,931 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.6% | 76% | 39% | $1,757 | $7,530 | — | $27,302 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $172.50 6.6% OTM over spot $161.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.58 mid) = $1,757 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,530/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $175.09) 80% EV / mo +$2,290 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.6] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~8.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,425 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,713 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $206 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.01/sh now → $4.96 mid-life (likely $5.46–$8.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,164 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $42 below CC-SS $214.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.63/sh (~25% of the $2.51 collected) or spot ≥ $175.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,172 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,706 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $172.50): -$27,302 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$353 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,122 (+$20,050 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,293 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,829, the opportunity cost of earning $7,530/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,038, position total $-34,097 (+$13,075 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $165 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.0% | 60% | 84% | $3,760 | $16,114 | +$8,584 | $35,451 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $165 2.0% OTM over spot $161.75 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.83 mid) = $3,760 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,114/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $169.82) 70% EV / mo +$1,855 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~20.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,538 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$81 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.50/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $6.17–$8.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,978 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $169 (overshoots $4.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $49 below CC-SS $214.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.18/sh (~25% of the $4.70 collected) or spot ≥ $169.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,172 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,706 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $165): -$35,451 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,917 (+$12,255 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,293 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,624, the opportunity cost of earning $16,114/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,720, position total $-38,827 (+$8,345 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.141 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$47,706 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,293
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.51 | 7/8 | $7,530 | $7,121 | 76% | 80% | +$2,290 | -$27,302 | 203.1% | $-27,122 (vs do-nothing $-24,829) |
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 6/8 | $7,971 | $7,665 | 71% | 77% | +$2,077 | -$24,548 | 182.6% | $-24,721 (vs do-nothing $-22,428) |
| $175 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 8/8 | $7,429 | $6,917 | 70% | 77% | +$1,743 | -$26,011 | 193.5% | $-25,477 (vs do-nothing $-23,184) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 7/8 | $7,125 | $6,716 | 70% | 76% | +$1,311 | -$25,734 | 191.5% | $-25,554 (vs do-nothing $-23,261) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 7/8 | $7,350 | $6,941 | 67% | 76% | +$1,655 | -$23,914 | 177.9% | $-23,734 (vs do-nothing $-21,441) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 7/8 | $8,100 | $7,691 | 66% | 74% | +$1,165 | -$27,029 | 201.1% | $-26,849 (vs do-nothing $-24,556) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 5/8 | $8,357 | $8,154 | 65% | 73% | +$1,371 | -$21,307 | 158.5% | $-21,833 (vs do-nothing $-19,540) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.30 | 7/8 | $8,300 | $7,891 | 64% | 74% | +$1,797 | -$24,999 | 186.0% | $-24,819 (vs do-nothing $-22,526) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 6/8 | $7,971 | $7,665 | 62% | 72% | +$928 | -$24,188 | 180.0% | $-24,361 (vs do-nothing $-22,068) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.10 | 6/8 | $7,800 | $7,494 | 61% | 73% | +$1,611 | -$22,448 | 167.0% | $-22,621 (vs do-nothing $-20,328) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 4/8 | $8,057 | $7,957 | 60% | 70% | +$928 | -$17,725 | 131.9% | $-18,605 (vs do-nothing $-16,312) |
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 5/8 | $7,768 | $7,565 | 58% | 70% | +$860 | -$20,882 | 155.4% | $-21,408 (vs do-nothing $-19,115) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.00 | 5/8 | $7,143 | $6,940 | 58% | 71% | +$1,274 | -$19,507 | 145.1% | $-20,033 (vs do-nothing $-17,740) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.15 | 5/8 | $7,964 | $7,761 | 55% | 69% | +$1,314 | -$20,182 | 150.2% | $-20,708 (vs do-nothing $-18,415) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.30 | 4/8 | $7,114 | $7,014 | 54% | 68% | +$654 | -$17,285 | 128.6% | $-18,165 (vs do-nothing $-15,872) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 3/8 | $7,393 | $7,395 | 54% | 67% | +$674 | -$13,729 | 102.1% | $-14,962 (vs do-nothing $-12,669) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.35 | 5/8 | $8,821 | $8,618 | 51% | 68% | +$1,317 | -$20,832 | 155.0% | $-21,358 (vs do-nothing $-19,065) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 4/8 | $8,229 | $8,128 | 50% | 66% | +$727 | -$17,765 | 132.2% | $-18,645 (vs do-nothing $-16,352) |
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 3/8 | $9,000 | $9,002 | 48% | 65% | +$684 | -$14,104 | 104.9% | $-15,337 (vs do-nothing $-13,044) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.