8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $215.31 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $14,743/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $512/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-48,372 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 7 × $172.50 | 76% | $7,920 | $2,025 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $202.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 25.2% | 98% | 4% | $136 | $583 | -$7,337 | $10,115 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $202.50 25.2% OTM over spot $161.72 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $136 credit for the 7d cycle → $583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $202.75) 98% EV / mo +$400 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.3] median · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-163 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,618 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $223 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.17/sh now → $7.19 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $13 below CC-SS $215.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $202.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,372 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,839 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $202.50): -$10,115 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,648 (+$38,724 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,424 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,224, the opportunity cost of earning $583/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-32,303 (+$16,069 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $182.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.9% | 90% | 20% | $848 | $3,634 | -$4,286 | $25,403 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $182.50 12.9% OTM over spot $161.72 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.14 mid) = $848 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,634/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $183.63) 91% EV / mo +$2,141 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,278 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,944 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $206 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.47/sh now → $5.99 mid-life (likely $5.18–$9.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 411 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $186 (overshoots $3.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $33 below CC-SS $215.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $183.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,372 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,839 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $182.50): -$25,403 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,936 (+$23,436 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,424 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,512, the opportunity cost of earning $3,634/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-32,303 (+$16,069 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 7 × $177.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.8% | 84% | 32% | $1,190 | $5,100 | -$2,820 | $25,279 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $177.50 9.8% OTM over spot $161.72 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.79 mid) = $1,190 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $179.28) 87% EV / mo +$2,445 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,066 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,804 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.07/sh now → $5.71 mid-life (likely $5.42–$8.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 655 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $181 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $38 below CC-SS $215.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.70 collected) or spot ≥ $179.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,372 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,839 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $177.50): -$25,279 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$486 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,299 (+$23,073 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,424 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,875, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$105, position total $-32,363 (+$16,009 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.7% | 76% | 36% | $1,848 | $7,920 | — | $28,121 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $172.50 6.7% OTM over spot $161.72 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.75 mid) = $1,848 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $175.25) 81% EV / mo +$2,882 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.9] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~8.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,008 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,952 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.68/sh now → $5.43 mid-life (likely $5.84–$8.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,086 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $43 below CC-SS $215.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.64 collected) or spot ≥ $175.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,372 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,839 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $172.50): -$28,121 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$486 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,141 (+$20,231 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,424 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,717, the opportunity cost of earning $7,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,947, position total $-35,205 (+$13,167 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $165 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.0% | 60% | 83% | $3,500 | $15,000 | +$7,080 | $31,719 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $165 2.0% OTM over spot $161.72 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.10 mid) = $3,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $170.10) 72% EV / mo +$3,433 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.4] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~21.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,265 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.11/sh now → $5.03 mid-life (likely $6.73–$9.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,917 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $169 (overshoots $3.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $50 below CC-SS $215.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.25/sh (~25% of the $5.00 collected) or spot ≥ $170.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.61 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,372 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,839 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $165): -$31,719 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$486 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,739 (+$16,633 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,424 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,315, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,545, position total $-38,803 (+$9,569 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.139 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$48,839 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,424
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 7/8 | $7,920 | $7,505 | 76% | 81% | +$2,882 | -$28,121 | 209.2% | $-28,141 (vs do-nothing $-24,717) |
| $170 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 6/8 | $8,486 | $8,167 | 71% | 78% | +$2,689 | -$25,208 | 187.6% | $-25,714 (vs do-nothing $-22,290) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 8/8 | $8,229 | $7,717 | 71% | 77% | +$2,188 | -$30,411 | 226.3% | $-29,944 (vs do-nothing $-26,520) |
| $175 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 8/8 | $7,657 | $7,145 | 70% | 77% | +$1,931 | -$26,891 | 200.1% | $-26,424 (vs do-nothing $-23,000) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 7/8 | $7,500 | $7,085 | 67% | 76% | +$1,765 | -$24,719 | 183.9% | $-24,739 (vs do-nothing $-21,315) |
| $170 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 7/8 | $8,550 | $8,135 | 67% | 75% | +$2,202 | -$27,729 | 206.3% | $-27,749 (vs do-nothing $-24,325) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 5/8 | $8,679 | $8,456 | 66% | 75% | +$2,306 | -$21,882 | 162.8% | $-22,874 (vs do-nothing $-19,450) |
| $170 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.40 | 7/8 | $8,400 | $7,985 | 64% | 74% | +$1,853 | -$25,839 | 192.3% | $-25,859 (vs do-nothing $-22,435) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 6/8 | $8,357 | $8,038 | 63% | 73% | +$1,855 | -$24,788 | 184.4% | $-25,294 (vs do-nothing $-21,870) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.35 | 6/8 | $8,014 | $7,695 | 61% | 73% | +$1,628 | -$23,078 | 171.7% | $-23,584 (vs do-nothing $-20,160) |
| $165 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 4/8 | $8,571 | $8,445 | 60% | 72% | +$1,962 | -$18,125 | 134.9% | $-19,604 (vs do-nothing $-16,180) |
| $165 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 5/8 | $8,036 | $7,813 | 59% | 71% | +$1,598 | -$21,407 | 159.3% | $-22,399 (vs do-nothing $-18,975) |
| $165 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.35 | 5/8 | $7,393 | $7,170 | 58% | 71% | +$1,356 | -$19,982 | 148.7% | $-20,974 (vs do-nothing $-17,550) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.50 | 5/8 | $8,214 | $7,992 | 55% | 69% | +$1,390 | -$20,657 | 153.7% | $-21,649 (vs do-nothing $-18,225) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 4/8 | $7,371 | $7,245 | 54% | 69% | +$1,290 | -$17,685 | 131.6% | $-19,164 (vs do-nothing $-15,740) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/8 | $7,714 | $7,685 | 54% | 69% | +$1,479 | -$14,044 | 104.5% | $-16,009 (vs do-nothing $-12,585) |
| $160 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.65 | 5/8 | $9,036 | $8,813 | 51% | 68% | +$1,349 | -$21,332 | 158.7% | $-22,324 (vs do-nothing $-18,900) |
| $160 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.90 | 4/8 | $8,486 | $8,360 | 50% | 67% | +$1,352 | -$18,165 | 135.2% | $-19,644 (vs do-nothing $-16,220) |
| $160 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 3/8 | $9,514 | $9,485 | 47% | 66% | +$1,691 | -$14,374 | 106.9% | $-16,339 (vs do-nothing $-12,915) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.