8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $216.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $15,748/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $594/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-50,664 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 8 × $172.50 | 81% | $7,880 | $2,345 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $200 | 17 Jul | 6d | 24.9% | 99% | 3% | $120 | $600 | -$7,280 | $12,885 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $200 24.9% OTM over spot $160.07 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.16 mid) = $120 credit for the 6d cycle → $600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $200.16) 99% EV / mo +$500 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-276 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,167 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.34/sh now → $6.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $16 below CC-SS $216.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $200.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,664 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,107 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $200): -$12,885 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,442 (+$38,222 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,200, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,127 (+$17,537 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $180 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.5% | 92% | 17% | $776 | $3,880 | -$4,000 | $28,229 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $180 12.5% OTM over spot $160.07 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.02 mid) = $776 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $181.01) 93% EV / mo +$2,670 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,486 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,610 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $205 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.75/sh now → $5.48 mid-life (likely $4.60–$8.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 299 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $183 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $36 below CC-SS $216.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $181.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,664 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,107 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $180): -$28,229 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,786 (+$22,878 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,544, the opportunity cost of earning $3,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,127 (+$17,537 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 7 × $175 | 17 Jul | 6d | 9.3% | 85% | 30% | $1,078 | $5,390 | -$2,490 | $27,801 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $175 9.3% OTM over spot $160.07 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.61 mid) = $1,078 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,390/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $176.61) 87% EV / mo +$2,760 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-3.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,258 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,574 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.38/sh now → $5.22 mid-life (likely $4.84–$8.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 625 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $179 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $41 below CC-SS $216.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.54 collected) or spot ≥ $176.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,664 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,107 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $175): -$27,801 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$586 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,944 (+$22,720 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,702, the opportunity cost of earning $5,390/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,967, position total $-35,054 (+$15,610 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 7.8% | 81% | 27% | $1,576 | $7,880 | — | $33,429 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $172.50 7.8% OTM over spot $160.07 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.03 mid) = $1,576 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $174.53) 85% EV / mo +$3,653 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-4.0] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,031 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,494 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.19/sh now → $5.09 mid-life (likely $5.20–$8.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 816 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $176 (overshoots $3.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $44 below CC-SS $216.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.97 collected) or spot ≥ $174.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,664 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,107 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $172.50): -$33,429 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,986 (+$17,678 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,744, the opportunity cost of earning $7,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,904, position total $-37,031 (+$13,633 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $165 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.1% | 65% | 72% | $3,200 | $16,000 | +$8,120 | $37,805 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $165 3.1% OTM over spot $160.07 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.10 mid) = $3,200 credit for the 6d cycle → $16,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $169.10) 75% EV / mo +$5,092 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~17.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,469 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$565 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.65/sh now → $4.71 mid-life (likely $5.94–$8.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,641 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $168 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $51 below CC-SS $216.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $169.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,664 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,107 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $165): -$37,805 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,362 (+$13,302 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,120, the opportunity cost of earning $16,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.35 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,280, position total $-41,407 (+$9,257 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.137 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$51,107 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,242
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.97 | 8/8 | $7,880 | $7,286 | 81% | 85% | +$3,653 | -$33,429 | 248.7% | $-32,986 (vs do-nothing $-28,744) |
| $170 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 7/8 | $8,855 | $8,353 | 77% | 82% | +$3,835 | -$30,608 | 227.7% | $-30,751 (vs do-nothing $-26,509) |
| $167.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 5/8 | $8,000 | $7,683 | 71% | 78% | +$2,955 | -$22,778 | 169.5% | $-24,092 (vs do-nothing $-19,850) |
| $170 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 8/8 | $8,677 | $8,083 | 70% | 78% | +$2,626 | -$33,245 | 247.4% | $-32,802 (vs do-nothing $-28,560) |
| $170 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 8/8 | $8,820 | $8,226 | 67% | 75% | +$2,208 | -$31,125 | 231.6% | $-30,682 (vs do-nothing $-26,440) |
| $167.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 7/8 | $8,885 | $8,383 | 66% | 75% | +$2,418 | -$30,279 | 225.3% | $-30,422 (vs do-nothing $-26,180) |
| $165 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 4/8 | $8,000 | $7,775 | 65% | 75% | +$2,546 | -$18,902 | 140.6% | $-20,802 (vs do-nothing $-16,560) |
| $167.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 7/8 | $8,662 | $8,161 | 64% | 74% | +$2,005 | -$28,354 | 211.0% | $-28,497 (vs do-nothing $-24,255) |
| $165 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 6/8 | $8,862 | $8,452 | 62% | 73% | +$2,136 | -$26,913 | 200.2% | $-27,642 (vs do-nothing $-23,400) |
| $165 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.20 | 6/8 | $8,280 | $7,871 | 60% | 72% | +$1,735 | -$25,233 | 187.7% | $-25,962 (vs do-nothing $-21,720) |
| $162.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 4/8 | $9,900 | $9,675 | 59% | 72% | +$2,656 | -$19,522 | 145.3% | $-21,422 (vs do-nothing $-17,180) |
| $162.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 5/8 | $8,596 | $8,279 | 57% | 71% | +$1,846 | -$23,153 | 172.3% | $-24,467 (vs do-nothing $-20,225) |
| $162.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.25 | 6/8 | $9,225 | $8,816 | 57% | 70% | +$1,748 | -$26,103 | 194.2% | $-26,832 (vs do-nothing $-22,590) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.35 | 5/8 | $8,512 | $8,196 | 53% | 69% | +$1,423 | -$22,453 | 167.1% | $-23,767 (vs do-nothing $-19,525) |
| $160 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 4/8 | $7,938 | $7,714 | 52% | 68% | +$1,487 | -$19,062 | 141.8% | $-20,962 (vs do-nothing $-16,720) |
| $160 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/8 | $9,150 | $9,018 | 52% | 68% | +$2,065 | -$15,047 | 112.0% | $-17,532 (vs do-nothing $-13,290) |
| $157.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.55 | 5/8 | $9,413 | $9,096 | 50% | 67% | +$1,381 | -$23,103 | 171.9% | $-24,417 (vs do-nothing $-20,175) |
| $157.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 4/8 | $9,092 | $8,868 | 48% | 66% | +$1,449 | -$19,562 | 145.6% | $-21,462 (vs do-nothing $-17,220) |
| $157.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 3/8 | $11,025 | $10,893 | 44% | 65% | +$1,962 | -$15,422 | 114.7% | $-17,907 (vs do-nothing $-13,665) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.