8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $216.65 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $15,046/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $421/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-51,752 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 7 × $170 | 78% | $8,295 | $2,853 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $205 | 17 Jul | 6d | 28.7% | 99% | 2% | $88 | $440 | -$7,855 | $9,229 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $205 28.7% OTM over spot $159.25 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.14 mid) = $88 credit for the 6d cycle → $440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $205.13) 99% EV / mo +$377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-4.1] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-249 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,405 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $233 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.71/sh now → $6.87 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $12 below CC-SS $216.65: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $205.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.65, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,752 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,249 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $205): -$9,229 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,732 (+$43,020 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,492 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,240, the opportunity cost of earning $440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,594 (+$18,158 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $180 | 17 Jul | 6d | 13.0% | 91% | 18% | $728 | $3,640 | -$4,655 | $28,589 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $180 13.0% OTM over spot $159.25 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.95 mid) = $728 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $180.94) 92% EV / mo +$2,256 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.2] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,245 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,627 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.70/sh now → $5.44 mid-life (likely $4.47–$8.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $184 (overshoots $3.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $37 below CC-SS $216.65: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $180.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.65, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,752 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,249 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $180): -$28,589 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,092 (+$23,660 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,492 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,600, the opportunity cost of earning $3,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,594 (+$18,158 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 7 × $175 | 17 Jul | 6d | 9.9% | 86% | 28% | $1,022 | $5,110 | -$3,185 | $28,130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $175 9.9% OTM over spot $159.25 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.52 mid) = $1,022 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,110/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $176.51) 88% EV / mo +$2,722 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.4-3.9] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,631 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,603 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.32/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $4.90–$8.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 546 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $178 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $42 below CC-SS $216.65: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $176.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.65, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,752 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,249 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $175): -$28,130 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$624 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,257 (+$23,495 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,492 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,765, the opportunity cost of earning $5,110/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,918, position total $-35,471 (+$16,281 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $170 | 17 Jul | 6d | 6.7% | 78% | 32% | $1,659 | $8,295 | — | $30,993 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $170 6.7% OTM over spot $159.25 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.42 mid) = $1,659 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,295/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $172.42) 83% EV / mo +$3,694 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.1] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~9.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,655 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,785 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.96/sh now → $4.92 mid-life (likely $5.11–$7.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 948 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $173 (overshoots $3.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $47 below CC-SS $216.65: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.37 collected) or spot ≥ $172.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.65, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,752 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,249 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $170): -$30,993 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$624 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,120 (+$20,632 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,492 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,628, the opportunity cost of earning $8,295/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,781, position total $-38,334 (+$13,418 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $162.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.0% | 61% | 81% | $3,115 | $15,575 | +$7,280 | $34,787 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $162.50 2.0% OTM over spot $159.25 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.58 mid) = $3,115 credit for the 6d cycle → $15,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $167.07) 73% EV / mo +$4,239 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~22.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,949 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$66 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $198 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.43/sh now → $4.54 mid-life (likely $5.99–$8.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,865 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $166 (overshoots $3.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $54 below CC-SS $216.65: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.11/sh (~25% of the $4.45 collected) or spot ≥ $167.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.65, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,752 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,249 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $162.50): -$34,787 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$624 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,914 (+$16,838 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,492 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,422, the opportunity cost of earning $15,575/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,575, position total $-42,128 (+$9,624 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.138 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$52,249 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,492
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 7/8 | $8,295 | $7,969 | 78% | 83% | +$3,694 | -$30,993 | 230.6% | $-31,120 (vs do-nothing $-26,628) |
| $167.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 6/8 | $8,760 | $8,529 | 73% | 79% | +$3,365 | -$27,736 | 206.4% | $-28,486 (vs do-nothing $-23,994) |
| $172.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 8/8 | $7,620 | $7,199 | 72% | 79% | +$3,026 | -$30,237 | 225.0% | $-29,740 (vs do-nothing $-25,248) |
| $170 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 8/8 | $8,585 | $8,164 | 71% | 78% | +$2,827 | -$33,597 | 250.0% | $-33,100 (vs do-nothing $-28,608) |
| $170 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.15 | 8/8 | $8,580 | $8,159 | 68% | 76% | +$2,116 | -$31,597 | 235.1% | $-31,100 (vs do-nothing $-26,608) |
| $167.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 7/8 | $8,723 | $8,397 | 68% | 76% | +$2,596 | -$30,622 | 227.8% | $-30,749 (vs do-nothing $-26,257) |
| $165 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 5/8 | $9,125 | $8,988 | 67% | 76% | +$3,049 | -$23,998 | 178.6% | $-25,372 (vs do-nothing $-20,880) |
| $167.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.00 | 7/8 | $8,400 | $8,074 | 65% | 76% | +$2,851 | -$28,802 | 214.3% | $-28,929 (vs do-nothing $-24,437) |
| $165 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 6/8 | $8,654 | $8,422 | 63% | 74% | +$2,305 | -$27,238 | 202.7% | $-27,988 (vs do-nothing $-23,496) |
| $165 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.85 | 6/8 | $7,965 | $7,734 | 61% | 72% | +$1,605 | -$25,678 | 191.1% | $-26,428 (vs do-nothing $-21,936) |
| $162.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 4/8 | $8,900 | $8,858 | 61% | 73% | +$2,422 | -$19,878 | 147.9% | $-21,876 (vs do-nothing $-17,384) |
| $162.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 5/8 | $8,308 | $8,171 | 59% | 71% | +$1,953 | -$23,473 | 174.7% | $-24,847 (vs do-nothing $-20,355) |
| $162.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 6/8 | $8,955 | $8,724 | 58% | 72% | +$2,528 | -$26,518 | 197.3% | $-27,268 (vs do-nothing $-22,776) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.05 | 5/8 | $8,288 | $8,151 | 55% | 69% | +$1,427 | -$22,798 | 169.6% | $-24,172 (vs do-nothing $-19,680) |
| $160 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 4/8 | $7,523 | $7,481 | 54% | 69% | +$1,459 | -$19,398 | 144.3% | $-21,396 (vs do-nothing $-16,904) |
| $160 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 3/8 | $8,325 | $8,377 | 54% | 69% | +$1,949 | -$15,329 | 114.1% | $-17,950 (vs do-nothing $-13,458) |
| $157.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.20 | 5/8 | $9,150 | $9,013 | 51% | 68% | +$1,387 | -$23,473 | 174.7% | $-24,847 (vs do-nothing $-20,355) |
| $157.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 4/8 | $8,677 | $8,635 | 49% | 67% | +$1,496 | -$19,898 | 148.1% | $-21,896 (vs do-nothing $-17,404) |
| $157.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 3/8 | $10,200 | $10,252 | 46% | 66% | +$1,973 | -$15,704 | 116.8% | $-18,325 (vs do-nothing $-13,833) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.