8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $218.38 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $14,954/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $557/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,040 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 7 × $170 | 77% | $7,700 | $2,481 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 7 × $200 | 17 Jul | 6d | 25.2% | 99% | 3% | $119 | $595 | -$7,105 | $12,750 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $200 25.2% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.18 mid) = $119 credit for the 6d cycle → $595/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $200.19) 99% EV / mo +$481 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $42 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,047 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.41/sh now → $5.95 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $18 below CC-SS $218.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $200.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,181 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $200): -$12,750 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$808 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,418 (+$28,622 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,091, the opportunity cost of earning $595/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-38,056 (+$13,984 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $180 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.6% | 91% | 19% | $680 | $3,400 | -$4,300 | $30,027 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $180 12.6% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.88 mid) = $680 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $180.88) 92% EV / mo +$1,903 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.6-4.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.1 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,604 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,265 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $205 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.97/sh now → $4.93 mid-life (likely $4.30–$7.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 281 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $183 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $38 below CC-SS $218.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $180.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,181 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $180): -$30,027 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,887 (+$12,153 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,560, the opportunity cost of earning $3,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-38,086 (+$13,954 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $175 | 17 Jul | 6d | 9.5% | 85% | 30% | $1,080 | $5,400 | -$2,300 | $33,627 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $175 9.5% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.39 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $176.39) 87% EV / mo +$2,471 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,886 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,672 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.63/sh now → $4.69 mid-life (likely $4.26–$7.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 536 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $178 (overshoots $3.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $43 below CC-SS $218.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $176.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,181 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $175): -$33,627 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,487 (+$8,553 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,160, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,264, position total $-40,350 (+$11,690 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $170 | 17 Jul | 6d | 6.4% | 77% | 33% | $1,540 | $7,700 | — | $32,329 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $170 6.4% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.28 mid) = $1,540 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $172.28) 82% EV / mo +$2,781 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.7-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~10.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,453 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,579 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.30/sh now → $4.46 mid-life (likely $4.71–$7.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,004 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $173 (overshoots $3.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $48 below CC-SS $218.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.20 collected) or spot ≥ $172.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,181 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $170): -$32,329 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$808 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,997 (+$9,043 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,670, the opportunity cost of earning $7,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,886, position total $-42,942 (+$9,098 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $162.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 1.7% | 59% | 84% | $3,010 | $15,050 | +$7,350 | $36,109 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $162.50 1.7% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.40 mid) = $3,010 credit for the 6d cycle → $15,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $166.90) 71% EV / mo +$3,004 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.0-5.3] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~27.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,638 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$129 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.82/sh now → $4.12 mid-life (likely $5.46–$8.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,929 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $166 (overshoots $3.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $56 below CC-SS $218.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.07/sh (~25% of the $4.30 collected) or spot ≥ $166.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $218.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,181 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $162.50): -$36,109 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$808 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,777 (+$5,263 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,450, the opportunity cost of earning $15,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,666, position total $-46,722 (+$5,318 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$42,181 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-16,327
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 7/8 | $7,700 | $7,213 | 77% | 82% | +$2,781 | -$32,329 | 240.5% | $-42,997 (vs do-nothing $-26,670) |
| $167.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 6/8 | $8,220 | $7,802 | 72% | 78% | +$2,462 | -$28,886 | 214.9% | $-40,363 (vs do-nothing $-24,036) |
| $170 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 8/8 | $8,215 | $7,659 | 71% | 77% | +$2,168 | -$35,147 | 261.5% | $-45,007 (vs do-nothing $-28,680) |
| $170 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 8/8 | $8,400 | $7,843 | 67% | 75% | +$1,738 | -$33,107 | 246.3% | $-42,967 (vs do-nothing $-26,640) |
| $167.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 7/8 | $8,319 | $7,832 | 67% | 75% | +$1,893 | -$32,014 | 238.2% | $-42,682 (vs do-nothing $-26,355) |
| $165 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 5/8 | $8,625 | $8,276 | 66% | 75% | +$2,153 | -$24,967 | 185.8% | $-37,252 (vs do-nothing $-20,925) |
| $167.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 7/8 | $8,033 | $7,545 | 64% | 75% | +$1,343 | -$30,264 | 225.2% | $-40,932 (vs do-nothing $-24,605) |
| $165 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 6/8 | $8,308 | $7,889 | 62% | 73% | +$1,661 | -$28,430 | 211.5% | $-39,907 (vs do-nothing $-23,580) |
| $165 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 6/8 | $8,055 | $7,637 | 61% | 72% | +$1,497 | -$26,660 | 198.4% | $-38,137 (vs do-nothing $-21,810) |
| $162.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/8 | $8,600 | $8,320 | 59% | 71% | +$1,717 | -$20,634 | 153.5% | $-33,727 (vs do-nothing $-17,400) |
| $162.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 5/8 | $7,962 | $7,613 | 58% | 70% | +$1,324 | -$24,492 | 182.2% | $-36,777 (vs do-nothing $-20,450) |
| $162.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 6/8 | $8,955 | $8,537 | 57% | 71% | +$1,480 | -$27,560 | 205.1% | $-39,037 (vs do-nothing $-22,710) |
| $160 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 5/8 | $8,062 | $7,713 | 54% | 68% | +$990 | -$23,817 | 177.2% | $-36,102 (vs do-nothing $-19,775) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 4/8 | $7,477 | $7,197 | 53% | 68% | +$1,160 | -$20,114 | 149.7% | $-33,207 (vs do-nothing $-16,880) |
| $160 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/8 | $7,950 | $7,739 | 52% | 67% | +$1,197 | -$15,925 | 118.5% | $-29,827 (vs do-nothing $-13,500) |
| $157.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 5/8 | $8,850 | $8,501 | 50% | 69% | +$852 | -$24,542 | 182.6% | $-36,827 (vs do-nothing $-20,500) |
| $157.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 4/8 | $8,262 | $7,982 | 48% | 66% | +$803 | -$20,774 | 154.6% | $-33,867 (vs do-nothing $-17,540) |
| $157.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/8 | $9,675 | $9,464 | 45% | 64% | +$997 | -$16,330 | 121.5% | $-30,232 (vs do-nothing $-13,905) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.