8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $214.07 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $20,018/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $568/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,352 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 8 × $172.50 | 92% | $10,320 | $6,827 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 8 × $167.50 | 75% | $11,236 | $3,265 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 31.5% | 99+% | 0% | $80 | $600 | -$9,720 | $7,177 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $205 31.5% OTM over spot $155.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $80 credit for the 4d cycle → $600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $205.13) 99+% EV / mo +$597 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.4-4.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,553 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,946 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $234 @ 84% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.42/sh now → $8.78 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $9 below CC-SS $214.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $205.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,901 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $205): -$7,177 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,628 (+$34,724 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,468 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,160, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 7 × $175 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.3% | 95% | 11% | $945 | $7,088 | -$3,232 | $26,405 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $175 12.3% OTM over spot $155.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.39 mid) = $945 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,088/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $176.39) 96% EV / mo +$6,417 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,402 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,683 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $199 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.35/sh now → $6.61 mid-life (likely $5.63–$10.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 140 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $179 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $39 below CC-SS $214.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $176.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,901 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $175): -$26,405 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$377 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,233 (+$15,119 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,468 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,765, the opportunity cost of earning $7,088/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.7% | 92% | 9% | $1,376 | $10,320 | — | $31,881 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $172.50 10.7% OTM over spot $155.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.84 mid) = $1,376 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $174.34) 94% EV / mo +$9,051 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [2.0-4.7] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.2 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,760 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,780 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.11/sh now → $6.44 mid-life (likely $5.56–$10.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 271 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $176 (overshoots $3.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $42 below CC-SS $214.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $174.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,901 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $172.50): -$31,881 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,332 (+$10,020 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,468 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,864, the opportunity cost of earning $10,320/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $165 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.9% | 80% | 41% | $2,760 | $20,700 | +$10,380 | $36,497 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $165 5.9% OTM over spot $155.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $3.55 mid) = $2,760 credit for the 4d cycle → $20,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $168.55) 87% EV / mo +$15,451 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.8-5.1] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~11.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $37,394 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,005 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $199 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.42/sh now → $5.96 mid-life (likely $6.31–$10.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 812 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $168 (overshoots $3.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $49 below CC-SS $214.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $168.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,901 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $165): -$36,497 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,948 (+$5,404 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,468 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,480, the opportunity cost of earning $20,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $212.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 36.3% | 99% | 2% | $234 | $637 | -$10,599 | $709 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $212.50 36.3% OTM over spot $155.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.41 mid) = $234 credit for the 11d cycle → $637/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $212.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $212.91) 99% EV / mo +$588 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.5] median · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-479 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,915 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $222 @ 76% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $19.20/sh now → $13.58 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $212.50 is $2 below CC-SS $214.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $212.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,901 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $212.50): -$709 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $210): -$754 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,914 (+$40,438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,468 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,554, the opportunity cost of earning $637/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $182.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 17.1% | 91% | 18% | $1,496 | $4,080 | -$7,156 | $23,761 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $182.50 17.1% OTM over spot $155.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.07 mid) = $1,496 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $184.57) 92% EV / mo +$2,981 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [1.9-5.0] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,224 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,788 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $194 @ 78% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.64/sh now → $10.36 mid-life (likely $8.31–$13.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 383 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $186 (overshoots $3.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $32 below CC-SS $214.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.87 collected) or spot ≥ $184.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,901 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $182.50): -$23,761 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,212 (+$18,140 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,468 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,744, the opportunity cost of earning $4,080/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $175 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.3% | 85% | 32% | $2,640 | $7,200 | -$4,036 | $28,617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $175 12.3% OTM over spot $155.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.38 mid) = $2,640 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $178.38) 88% EV / mo +$4,802 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.7-5.1] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,239 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,053 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $189 @ 80% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.59/sh now → $9.62 mid-life (likely $8.88–$13.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 727 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $179 (overshoots $3.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $39 below CC-SS $214.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $178.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,901 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $175): -$28,617 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,068 (+$13,284 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,468 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,600, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $167.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 7.5% | 75% | 41% | $4,120 | $11,236 | — | $33,137 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $167.50 7.5% OTM over spot $155.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.33 mid) = $4,120 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,236/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $172.82) 82% EV / mo +$6,230 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-5.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.3 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,701 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,003 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $189 @ 86% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.59/sh now → $8.90 mid-life (likely $9.85–$14.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,231 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $171 (overshoots $3.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $47 below CC-SS $214.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.29/sh (~25% of the $5.15 collected) or spot ≥ $172.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,901 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $167.50): -$33,137 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,588 (+$8,764 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,468 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,120, the opportunity cost of earning $11,236/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $155 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.6% | 50% | 99+% | $8,040 | $21,927 | +$10,691 | $39,217 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $155 0.6% ITM over spot $155.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $10.90 mid) = $8,040 credit for the 11d cycle → $21,927/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $165.90) 72% EV / mo +$7,469 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,819 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $185 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.99/sh now → $7.78 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $59 below CC-SS $214.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.51/sh (~25% of the $10.05 collected) or spot ≥ $165.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $214.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,901 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $155): -$39,217 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,668 (+$2,684 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-13,468 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,200, the opportunity cost of earning $21,927/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$41,901 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-13,468
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 8/8 | $10,320 | $9,752 | 92% | 94% | +$9,051 | -$31,881 | 237.2% | $-42,332 (vs do-nothing $-28,864) |
| $170 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 7/8 | $11,550 | $11,063 | 89% | 92% | +$9,734 | -$29,310 | 218.1% | $-40,138 (vs do-nothing $-26,670) |
| $167.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 5/8 | $10,275 | $9,952 | 85% | 90% | +$8,191 | -$21,915 | 163.1% | $-33,498 (vs do-nothing $-20,030) |
| $165 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 4/8 | $10,350 | $10,109 | 80% | 87% | +$7,725 | -$18,248 | 135.8% | $-30,208 (vs do-nothing $-16,740) |
| $167.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 8/8 | $11,236 | $10,668 | 75% | 82% | +$6,230 | -$33,137 | 246.6% | $-43,588 (vs do-nothing $-30,120) |
| $162.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/8 | $12,900 | $12,659 | 74% | 84% | +$8,869 | -$18,908 | 140.7% | $-30,868 (vs do-nothing $-17,400) |
| $165 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 7/8 | $11,455 | $10,968 | 70% | 80% | +$5,939 | -$30,150 | 224.3% | $-40,978 (vs do-nothing $-27,510) |
| $167.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 8/8 | $10,200 | $9,632 | 70% | 80% | +$4,241 | -$31,137 | 231.7% | $-41,588 (vs do-nothing $-28,120) |
| $165 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 7/8 | $10,442 | $9,955 | 66% | 77% | +$4,355 | -$28,085 | 209.0% | $-38,913 (vs do-nothing $-25,445) |
| $160 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/8 | $11,925 | $11,766 | 66% | 81% | +$7,408 | -$14,631 | 108.9% | $-26,968 (vs do-nothing $-13,500) |
| $162.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 6/8 | $11,291 | $10,886 | 66% | 78% | +$5,391 | -$26,803 | 199.4% | $-38,008 (vs do-nothing $-24,540) |
| $162.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 7/8 | $11,608 | $11,122 | 63% | 77% | +$4,533 | -$29,135 | 216.8% | $-39,963 (vs do-nothing $-26,495) |
| $160 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 5/8 | $11,045 | $10,722 | 61% | 76% | +$4,965 | -$22,985 | 171.0% | $-34,568 (vs do-nothing $-21,100) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 6/8 | $10,750 | $10,345 | 59% | 74% | +$3,732 | -$25,993 | 193.4% | $-37,198 (vs do-nothing $-23,730) |
| $157.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/8 | $14,512 | $14,353 | 57% | 78% | +$7,969 | -$15,036 | 111.9% | $-27,373 (vs do-nothing $-13,905) |
| $157.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 5/8 | $12,205 | $11,882 | 56% | 74% | +$4,756 | -$23,810 | 177.2% | $-35,393 (vs do-nothing $-21,925) |
| $157.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 6/8 | $11,800 | $11,395 | 56% | 74% | +$3,716 | -$26,863 | 199.9% | $-38,068 (vs do-nothing $-24,600) |
| $155 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 6/8 | $10,050 | $9,645 | 52% | 71% | +$784 | -$29,413 | 218.8% | $-40,618 (vs do-nothing $-27,150) |
| $155 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 4/8 | $10,964 | $10,722 | 50% | 72% | +$3,735 | -$19,608 | 145.9% | $-31,568 (vs do-nothing $-18,100) |
| $155 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 2/8 | $11,775 | $11,697 | 48% | 76% | +$5,656 | -$10,244 | 76.2% | $-22,958 (vs do-nothing $-9,490) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.