8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $215.17 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $19,527/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $568/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,352 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 8 × $172.50 | 91% | $10,320 | $6,360 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 7 × $167.50 | 73% | $9,832 | $2,285 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 30.7% | 99+% | 0% | $80 | $600 | -$9,720 | $8,055 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $205 30.7% OTM over spot $156.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $80 credit for the 4d cycle → $600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $205.13) 99+% EV / mo +$596 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.7] median · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,422 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,684 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $233 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.96/sh now → $8.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $10 below CC-SS $215.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $205.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,022 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $205): -$8,055 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,385 (+$33,967 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,225 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,160, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-36,242 (+$16,110 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 7 × $175 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.6% | 94% | 13% | $945 | $7,088 | -$3,232 | $27,173 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $175 11.6% OTM over spot $156.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.39 mid) = $945 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,088/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $176.39) 95% EV / mo +$6,232 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-5.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,591 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,513 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $198 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.00/sh now → $6.37 mid-life (likely $5.19–$9.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 168 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $179 (overshoots $3.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $40 below CC-SS $215.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $176.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,022 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $175): -$27,173 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$487 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,990 (+$14,362 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,225 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,765, the opportunity cost of earning $7,088/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,981, position total $-38,193 (+$14,159 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.0% | 91% | 11% | $1,376 | $10,320 | — | $32,759 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $172.50 10.0% OTM over spot $156.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.84 mid) = $1,376 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $174.34) 93% EV / mo +$8,722 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.9-4.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~5.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,834 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,590 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $201 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.78/sh now → $6.21 mid-life (likely $5.46–$10.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 319 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $176 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $43 below CC-SS $215.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $174.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,022 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $172.50): -$32,759 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,089 (+$9,263 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,225 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,864, the opportunity cost of earning $10,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,968, position total $-40,210 (+$12,142 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $165 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.2% | 78% | 46% | $2,760 | $20,700 | +$10,380 | $37,375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $165 5.2% OTM over spot $156.81 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $3.55 mid) = $2,760 credit for the 4d cycle → $20,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $168.55) 86% EV / mo +$14,381 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.8-5.1] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.7 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~12.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $38,737 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,830 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $198 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.11/sh now → $5.74 mid-life (likely $6.25–$10.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 945 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $168 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $50 below CC-SS $215.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $168.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,022 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $165): -$37,375 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,705 (+$4,647 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,225 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,480, the opportunity cost of earning $20,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,584, position total $-44,826 (+$7,526 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $212.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 35.5% | 99% | 3% | $234 | $637 | -$9,194 | $1,368 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $212.50 35.5% OTM over spot $156.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.41 mid) = $234 credit for the 11d cycle → $637/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $212.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $212.91) 99% EV / mo +$580 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.5] median · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-202 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,351 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $221 @ 75% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $17.87/sh now → $12.64 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $212.50 is $3 below CC-SS $215.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $212.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,022 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $212.50): -$1,368 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $210): -$974 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,671 (+$39,681 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,225 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,554, the opportunity cost of earning $637/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-36,182 (+$16,170 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $182.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 16.4% | 90% | 20% | $1,496 | $4,080 | -$5,752 | $24,639 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $182.50 16.4% OTM over spot $156.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.07 mid) = $1,496 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $184.57) 92% EV / mo +$2,826 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-5.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,039 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,252 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $196 @ 79% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.69/sh now → $9.69 mid-life (likely $8.02–$13.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 459 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $187 (overshoots $4.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $33 below CC-SS $215.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.87 collected) or spot ≥ $184.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,022 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $182.50): -$24,639 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,969 (+$17,383 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,225 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,744, the opportunity cost of earning $4,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-36,242 (+$16,110 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $175 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.6% | 83% | 35% | $2,640 | $7,200 | -$2,632 | $29,495 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $175 11.6% OTM over spot $156.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.38 mid) = $2,640 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $178.38) 87% EV / mo +$4,342 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.7-5.3] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,592 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,565 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $188 @ 79% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.73/sh now → $9.01 mid-life (likely $8.88–$13.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 835 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $179 (overshoots $4.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $40 below CC-SS $215.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $178.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,022 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $175): -$29,495 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,825 (+$12,527 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,225 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,600, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$704, position total $-36,946 (+$15,406 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $167.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.8% | 73% | 47% | $3,605 | $9,832 | — | $29,763 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $167.50 6.8% OTM over spot $156.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.33 mid) = $3,605 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,832/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $172.82) 80% EV / mo +$4,649 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.6-4.6] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~8.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,783 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,241 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $191 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.81/sh now → $8.35 mid-life (likely $9.50–$13.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,420 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $171 (overshoots $3.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $48 below CC-SS $215.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.29/sh (~25% of the $5.15 collected) or spot ≥ $172.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,022 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $167.50): -$29,763 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$487 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,580 (+$11,772 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,225 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,355, the opportunity cost of earning $9,832/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,571, position total $-40,783 (+$11,569 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $157.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.4% | 54% | 97% | $7,160 | $19,527 | +$9,695 | $38,975 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $157.50 0.4% OTM over spot $156.81 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $9.52 mid) = $7,160 credit for the 11d cycle → $19,527/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $167.03) 72% EV / mo +$5,976 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-4.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~25.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $29,528 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 80% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,147 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $186 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.63/sh now → $7.52 mid-life (likely $10.57–$14.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,405 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $162 (overshoots $4.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $58 below CC-SS $215.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.24/sh (~25% of the $8.95 collected) or spot ≥ $167.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,022 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $157.50): -$38,975 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,305 (+$3,047 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,225 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,080, the opportunity cost of earning $19,527/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,184, position total $-46,426 (+$5,926 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$42,022 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-14,225
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 8/8 | $10,320 | $9,752 | 91% | 93% | +$8,722 | -$32,759 | 243.7% | $-43,089 (vs do-nothing $-28,864) |
| $170 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 6/8 | $9,900 | $9,495 | 88% | 91% | +$7,968 | -$25,781 | 191.8% | $-37,085 (vs do-nothing $-22,860) |
| $167.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 5/8 | $10,275 | $9,952 | 83% | 89% | +$7,726 | -$22,464 | 167.1% | $-34,255 (vs do-nothing $-20,030) |
| $165 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 4/8 | $10,350 | $10,109 | 78% | 86% | +$7,191 | -$18,688 | 139.0% | $-30,965 (vs do-nothing $-16,740) |
| $167.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 7/8 | $9,832 | $9,345 | 73% | 80% | +$4,649 | -$29,763 | 221.5% | $-40,580 (vs do-nothing $-26,355) |
| $162.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/8 | $12,900 | $12,659 | 71% | 82% | +$8,124 | -$19,348 | 144.0% | $-31,625 (vs do-nothing $-17,400) |
| $165 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 6/8 | $9,818 | $9,413 | 69% | 79% | +$4,613 | -$26,501 | 197.2% | $-37,805 (vs do-nothing $-23,580) |
| $167.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 8/8 | $10,200 | $9,632 | 68% | 79% | +$3,821 | -$32,015 | 238.2% | $-42,345 (vs do-nothing $-28,120) |
| $165 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 7/8 | $10,442 | $9,955 | 65% | 76% | +$3,944 | -$28,853 | 214.7% | $-39,670 (vs do-nothing $-25,445) |
| $162.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 6/8 | $11,291 | $10,886 | 64% | 76% | +$4,430 | -$27,461 | 204.3% | $-38,765 (vs do-nothing $-24,540) |
| $160 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/8 | $11,925 | $11,766 | 63% | 79% | +$6,658 | -$14,961 | 111.3% | $-27,725 (vs do-nothing $-13,500) |
| $162.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 6/8 | $9,950 | $9,545 | 62% | 76% | +$3,495 | -$25,631 | 190.7% | $-36,935 (vs do-nothing $-22,710) |
| $160 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 5/8 | $11,045 | $10,722 | 59% | 74% | +$4,051 | -$23,534 | 175.1% | $-35,325 (vs do-nothing $-21,100) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 6/8 | $10,750 | $10,345 | 58% | 73% | +$3,301 | -$26,651 | 198.3% | $-37,955 (vs do-nothing $-23,730) |
| $157.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 5/8 | $9,833 | $9,510 | 54% | 73% | +$2,703 | -$22,934 | 170.6% | $-34,725 (vs do-nothing $-20,500) |
| $157.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/8 | $14,512 | $14,353 | 54% | 76% | +$7,003 | -$15,366 | 114.3% | $-28,130 (vs do-nothing $-13,905) |
| $157.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 4/8 | $9,764 | $9,522 | 54% | 72% | +$2,988 | -$19,488 | 145.0% | $-31,765 (vs do-nothing $-17,540) |
| $155 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 6/8 | $10,050 | $9,645 | 51% | 70% | +$270 | -$30,071 | 223.7% | $-41,375 (vs do-nothing $-27,150) |
| $155 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 4/8 | $10,964 | $10,722 | 49% | 70% | +$2,844 | -$20,048 | 149.2% | $-32,325 (vs do-nothing $-18,100) |
| $155 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 2/8 | $11,775 | $11,697 | 45% | 73% | +$4,861 | -$10,464 | 77.9% | $-23,715 (vs do-nothing $-9,490) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.