8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $215.79 (banked floor $215.28) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $19,527/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $568/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,352 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 8 × $172.50 | 91% | $10,320 | $6,291 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 7 × $167.50 | 72% | $9,832 | $2,501 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 30.4% | 99+% | 0% | $80 | $600 | -$9,720 | $8,549 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $205 30.4% OTM over spot $157.22 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $80 credit for the 4d cycle → $600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $205.13) 99+% EV / mo +$595 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,314 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,338 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $233 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.34/sh now → $8.02 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $11 below CC-SS $215.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $205.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,272 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $205): -$8,549 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,629 (+$44,723 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,160, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-32,377 (+$19,975 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 7 × $175 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.3% | 93% | 14% | $945 | $7,088 | -$3,232 | $27,605 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $175 11.3% OTM over spot $157.22 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.39 mid) = $945 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,088/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $176.39) 95% EV / mo +$6,136 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-5.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,237 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,285 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.54/sh now → $6.04 mid-life (likely $4.97–$9.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 180 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $178 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $41 below CC-SS $215.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $176.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,272 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $175): -$27,605 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$549 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,234 (+$25,118 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,765, the opportunity cost of earning $7,088/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,981, position total $-34,328 (+$18,024 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.7% | 91% | 11% | $1,376 | $10,320 | — | $33,253 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $172.50 9.7% OTM over spot $157.22 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.84 mid) = $1,376 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $174.34) 93% EV / mo +$8,554 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.6] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $21,302 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,336 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.33/sh now → $5.89 mid-life (likely $5.20–$9.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $176 (overshoots $3.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $43 below CC-SS $215.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $174.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,272 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $172.50): -$33,253 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,333 (+$20,019 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,864, the opportunity cost of earning $10,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,968, position total $-36,345 (+$16,007 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $165 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.9% | 76% | 48% | $2,760 | $20,700 | +$10,380 | $37,869 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $165 4.9% OTM over spot $157.22 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $3.55 mid) = $2,760 credit for the 4d cycle → $20,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $168.55) 85% EV / mo +$13,854 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~12.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $37,690 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,595 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $188 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.70/sh now → $5.44 mid-life (likely $6.08–$9.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 986 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $168 (overshoots $3.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $51 below CC-SS $215.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $168.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,272 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $165): -$37,869 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,949 (+$15,403 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,480, the opportunity cost of earning $20,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,584, position total $-40,961 (+$11,391 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $212.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 35.2% | 99% | 3% | $234 | $637 | -$9,194 | $1,738 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $212.50 35.2% OTM over spot $157.22 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.41 mid) = $234 credit for the 11d cycle → $637/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $212.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $212.91) 99% EV / mo +$575 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.1] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,197 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 75% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $17.51/sh now → $12.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $212.50 is $3 below CC-SS $215.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $212.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,272 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $212.50): -$1,738 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $210): -$1,097 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,915 (+$50,437 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,554, the opportunity cost of earning $637/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-32,317 (+$20,035 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $185 | 24 Jul | 11d | 17.7% | 92% | 17% | $1,304 | $3,556 | -$6,275 | $23,325 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $185 17.7% OTM over spot $157.22 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.80 mid) = $1,304 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,556/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $186.80) 93% EV / mo +$2,529 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,517 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,437 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $198 @ 78% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.68/sh now → $9.68 mid-life (likely $7.73–$12.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $189 (overshoots $3.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $31 below CC-SS $215.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.63 collected) or spot ≥ $186.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,272 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $185): -$23,325 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,405 (+$29,947 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,936, the opportunity cost of earning $3,556/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-32,377 (+$19,975 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $175 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.3% | 83% | 35% | $2,640 | $7,200 | -$2,632 | $29,989 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $175 11.3% OTM over spot $157.22 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.38 mid) = $2,640 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $178.38) 87% EV / mo +$4,361 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.3-4.4] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,863 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,379 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $188 @ 79% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.40/sh now → $8.77 mid-life (likely $8.50–$13.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 817 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $179 (overshoots $3.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $41 below CC-SS $215.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $178.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,272 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $175): -$29,989 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,069 (+$23,283 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,600, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$704, position total $-33,081 (+$19,271 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $167.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.5% | 72% | 47% | $3,605 | $9,832 | — | $30,195 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $167.50 6.5% OTM over spot $157.22 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.33 mid) = $3,605 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,832/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $172.82) 80% EV / mo +$4,761 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.1] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~8.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,422 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,082 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $190 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.49/sh now → $8.12 mid-life (likely $9.22–$12.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,418 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $171 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $48 below CC-SS $215.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.29/sh (~25% of the $5.15 collected) or spot ≥ $172.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,272 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $167.50): -$30,195 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$549 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,824 (+$22,528 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,355, the opportunity cost of earning $9,832/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,571, position total $-36,918 (+$15,434 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $157.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.2% | 53% | 99% | $7,160 | $19,527 | +$9,695 | $39,469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $157.50 0.2% OTM over spot $157.22 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $9.52 mid) = $7,160 credit for the 11d cycle → $19,527/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $167.03) 72% EV / mo +$6,155 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-3.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~25.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,348 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 82% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,322 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $185 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.32/sh now → $7.30 mid-life (likely $10.29–$14.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,445 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $162 (overshoots $4.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $58 below CC-SS $215.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.24/sh (~25% of the $8.95 collected) or spot ≥ $167.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,352 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,272 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $157.50): -$39,469 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,549 (+$13,803 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,469 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,080, the opportunity cost of earning $19,527/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $179.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,184, position total $-42,561 (+$9,791 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.137 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$53,272 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,469
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 8/8 | $10,320 | $9,752 | 91% | 93% | +$8,554 | -$33,253 | 247.4% | $-32,333 (vs do-nothing $-28,864) |
| $170 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 6/8 | $9,900 | $9,495 | 87% | 91% | +$7,779 | -$26,152 | 194.6% | $-26,329 (vs do-nothing $-22,860) |
| $167.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 5/8 | $10,275 | $9,952 | 82% | 88% | +$7,495 | -$22,773 | 169.4% | $-23,499 (vs do-nothing $-20,030) |
| $165 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 4/8 | $10,350 | $10,109 | 76% | 85% | +$6,927 | -$18,934 | 140.9% | $-20,209 (vs do-nothing $-16,740) |
| $167.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 7/8 | $9,832 | $9,345 | 72% | 80% | +$4,761 | -$30,195 | 224.7% | $-29,824 (vs do-nothing $-26,355) |
| $162.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/8 | $12,900 | $12,659 | 69% | 81% | +$7,761 | -$19,594 | 145.8% | $-20,869 (vs do-nothing $-17,400) |
| $165 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 6/8 | $9,818 | $9,413 | 68% | 78% | +$4,389 | -$26,872 | 199.9% | $-27,049 (vs do-nothing $-23,580) |
| $167.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 8/8 | $10,200 | $9,632 | 68% | 79% | +$3,627 | -$32,509 | 241.9% | $-31,589 (vs do-nothing $-28,120) |
| $165 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 7/8 | $10,442 | $9,955 | 65% | 76% | +$3,756 | -$29,285 | 217.9% | $-28,914 (vs do-nothing $-25,445) |
| $162.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 6/8 | $11,291 | $10,886 | 63% | 76% | +$4,568 | -$27,832 | 207.1% | $-28,009 (vs do-nothing $-24,540) |
| $160 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/8 | $11,925 | $11,766 | 61% | 78% | +$6,298 | -$15,146 | 112.7% | $-16,969 (vs do-nothing $-13,500) |
| $162.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 6/8 | $9,950 | $9,545 | 61% | 75% | +$3,316 | -$26,002 | 193.5% | $-26,179 (vs do-nothing $-22,710) |
| $160 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 5/8 | $11,045 | $10,722 | 58% | 74% | +$4,170 | -$23,843 | 177.4% | $-24,569 (vs do-nothing $-21,100) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 6/8 | $10,750 | $10,345 | 57% | 72% | +$3,104 | -$27,022 | 201.1% | $-27,199 (vs do-nothing $-23,730) |
| $157.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 5/8 | $9,833 | $9,510 | 54% | 73% | +$2,523 | -$23,243 | 172.9% | $-23,969 (vs do-nothing $-20,500) |
| $157.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 4/8 | $9,764 | $9,522 | 53% | 72% | +$3,078 | -$19,734 | 146.8% | $-21,009 (vs do-nothing $-17,540) |
| $157.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/8 | $14,512 | $14,353 | 52% | 75% | +$6,545 | -$15,551 | 115.7% | $-17,374 (vs do-nothing $-13,905) |
| $155 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 6/8 | $10,050 | $9,645 | 50% | 70% | +$36 | -$30,442 | 226.5% | $-30,619 (vs do-nothing $-27,150) |
| $155 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 4/8 | $10,964 | $10,722 | 48% | 70% | +$2,914 | -$20,294 | 151.0% | $-21,569 (vs do-nothing $-18,100) |
| $155 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 2/8 | $11,775 | $11,697 | 43% | 72% | +$4,488 | -$10,587 | 78.8% | $-12,959 (vs do-nothing $-9,490) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.