8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $216.88 (banked floor $216.38) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $16,364/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $500/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,728 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 7 × $170 | 83% | $8,558 | $3,281 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 8 × $167.50 | 70% | $9,273 | $2,195 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $200 | 17 Jul | 4d | 26.6% | 99% | 2% | $72 | $540 | -$8,018 | $13,436 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $200 26.6% OTM over spot $157.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.10 mid) = $72 credit for the 4d cycle → $540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $200.10) 99% EV / mo +$415 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.8] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-171 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,552 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $230 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.17/sh now → $5.78 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $17 below CC-SS $216.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $200.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,728 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,701 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $200): -$13,436 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,462 (+$40,266 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,366 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,096, the opportunity cost of earning $540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-34,194 (+$18,534 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 8 × $175 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.8% | 90% | 20% | $752 | $5,640 | -$2,918 | $32,756 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $175 10.8% OTM over spot $157.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.00 mid) = $752 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $176.00) 91% EV / mo +$3,507 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.5] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,651 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,943 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.53/sh now → $4.62 mid-life (likely $4.18–$7.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 390 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $179 (overshoots $4.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $42 below CC-SS $216.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $176.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,728 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,701 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $175): -$32,756 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,782 (+$20,946 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,366 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,416, the opportunity cost of earning $5,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,880, position total $-36,074 (+$16,654 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $170 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.6% | 83% | 23% | $1,141 | $8,558 | — | $31,678 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $170 7.6% OTM over spot $157.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.70 mid) = $1,141 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,558/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $171.70) 86% EV / mo +$4,128 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-4.0] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~9.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,663 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,940 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.22/sh now → $4.40 mid-life (likely $4.28–$7.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 685 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $174 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $47 below CC-SS $216.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.63 collected) or spot ≥ $171.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,728 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,701 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $170): -$31,678 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$667 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,372 (+$21,356 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,366 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,006, the opportunity cost of earning $8,558/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,662, position total $-38,835 (+$13,893 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $165 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.5% | 72% | 58% | $2,184 | $16,380 | +$7,823 | $39,324 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $165 4.5% OTM over spot $157.95 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.81 mid) = $2,184 credit for the 4d cycle → $16,380/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $167.81) 78% EV / mo +$5,583 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~16.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,841 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,168 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.92/sh now → $4.19 mid-life (likely $4.86–$8.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,224 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $169 (overshoots $4.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $52 below CC-SS $216.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.68/sh (~25% of the $2.73 collected) or spot ≥ $167.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,728 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,701 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $165): -$39,324 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,350 (+$14,378 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,366 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,984, the opportunity cost of earning $16,380/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,448, position total $-42,642 (+$10,086 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $205 | 24 Jul | 11d | 29.8% | 97% | 7% | $210 | $573 | -$8,700 | $6,921 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $205 29.8% OTM over spot $157.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.43 mid) = $210 credit for the 11d cycle → $573/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $205.44) 97% EV / mo +$307 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.6] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $92 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,289 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $217 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.95/sh now → $9.16 mid-life (likely $5.72–$9.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 62 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $209 (overshoots $4.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $12 below CC-SS $216.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $205.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,728 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,701 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $205): -$6,921 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $210): -$1,335 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,282 (+$45,446 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,366 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,916, the opportunity cost of earning $573/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-34,152 (+$18,576 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $187.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 18.7% | 91% | 19% | $888 | $2,422 | -$6,851 | $22,620 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $187.50 18.7% OTM over spot $157.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.20 mid) = $888 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,422/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $187.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $188.70) 92% EV / mo +$1,094 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.9] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,806 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,391 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.09/sh now → $7.85 mid-life (likely $6.09–$9.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $191 (overshoots $3.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $187.50 is $29 below CC-SS $216.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $188.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,728 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,701 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $187.50): -$22,620 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,646 (+$31,082 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,366 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,280, the opportunity cost of earning $2,422/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-34,194 (+$18,534 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $175 | 24 Jul | 11d | 10.8% | 80% | 41% | $2,112 | $5,760 | -$3,513 | $31,396 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $175 10.8% OTM over spot $157.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.84 mid) = $2,112 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,760/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $177.84) 84% EV / mo +$1,970 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.4-4.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,125 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,463 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $192 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.85/sh now → $6.97 mid-life (likely $7.19–$10.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 936 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $179 (overshoots $3.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $42 below CC-SS $216.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.64 collected) or spot ≥ $177.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,728 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,701 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $175): -$31,396 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,422 (+$22,306 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,366 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,056, the opportunity cost of earning $5,760/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$520, position total $-34,714 (+$18,014 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $167.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.0% | 70% | 50% | $3,400 | $9,273 | — | $36,108 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $167.50 6.0% OTM over spot $157.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.45 mid) = $3,400 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $171.95) 77% EV / mo +$2,221 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~8.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,955 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,773 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $195 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.14/sh now → $6.47 mid-life (likely $7.78–$10.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,505 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $171 (overshoots $3.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $49 below CC-SS $216.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.06/sh (~25% of the $4.25 collected) or spot ≥ $171.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,728 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,701 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $167.50): -$36,108 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,134 (+$17,594 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,366 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,768, the opportunity cost of earning $9,273/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,232, position total $-39,426 (+$13,302 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $157.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.3% | 52% | 99+% | $6,360 | $17,345 | +$8,073 | $41,148 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $157.50 0.3% ITM over spot $157.95 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $8.22 mid) = $6,360 credit for the 11d cycle → $17,345/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $165.72) 67% EV / mo +$2,266 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,701 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $188 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.23/sh now → $5.82 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $59 below CC-SS $216.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.99/sh (~25% of the $7.95 collected) or spot ≥ $165.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.05 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,728 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,701 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $157.50): -$41,148 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,174 (+$12,554 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,366 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,808, the opportunity cost of earning $17,345/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.29 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,272, position total $-44,466 (+$8,262 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.139 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$53,701 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,366
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.63 | 7/8 | $8,558 | $8,115 | 83% | 86% | +$4,128 | -$31,678 | 235.7% | $-31,372 (vs do-nothing $-27,006) |
| $167.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 6/8 | $9,495 | $9,109 | 78% | 82% | +$3,875 | -$28,365 | 211.0% | $-28,726 (vs do-nothing $-24,360) |
| $165 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.73 | 4/8 | $8,190 | $7,919 | 72% | 78% | +$2,791 | -$19,662 | 146.3% | $-21,358 (vs do-nothing $-16,992) |
| $167.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 8/8 | $9,273 | $8,773 | 70% | 77% | +$2,221 | -$36,108 | 268.7% | $-35,134 (vs do-nothing $-30,768) |
| $167.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 8/8 | $8,867 | $8,366 | 66% | 75% | +$1,510 | -$34,188 | 254.4% | $-33,214 (vs do-nothing $-28,848) |
| $165 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 7/8 | $9,545 | $9,103 | 66% | 74% | +$2,015 | -$32,819 | 244.2% | $-32,513 (vs do-nothing $-28,147) |
| $162.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/8 | $10,500 | $10,229 | 65% | 74% | +$2,926 | -$20,354 | 151.4% | $-22,050 (vs do-nothing $-17,684) |
| $165 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 7/8 | $8,925 | $8,482 | 63% | 73% | +$1,501 | -$30,964 | 230.4% | $-30,658 (vs do-nothing $-26,292) |
| $162.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 6/8 | $9,491 | $9,105 | 61% | 72% | +$1,657 | -$29,151 | 216.9% | $-29,512 (vs do-nothing $-25,146) |
| $162.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.55 | 6/8 | $8,550 | $8,164 | 60% | 71% | +$1,253 | -$27,501 | 204.6% | $-27,862 (vs do-nothing $-23,496) |
| $160 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 3/8 | $9,675 | $9,461 | 58% | 70% | +$1,727 | -$15,775 | 117.4% | $-18,139 (vs do-nothing $-13,773) |
| $160 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 5/8 | $9,273 | $8,944 | 57% | 70% | +$1,400 | -$25,042 | 186.3% | $-26,071 (vs do-nothing $-21,705) |
| $160 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.65 | 6/8 | $9,650 | $9,264 | 56% | 70% | +$1,312 | -$28,341 | 210.9% | $-28,702 (vs do-nothing $-24,336) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.70 | 5/8 | $8,917 | $8,588 | 53% | 68% | +$1,008 | -$24,342 | 181.1% | $-25,371 (vs do-nothing $-21,005) |
| $157.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 4/8 | $8,673 | $8,402 | 52% | 67% | +$1,133 | -$20,574 | 153.1% | $-22,270 (vs do-nothing $-17,904) |
| $157.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/8 | $11,925 | $11,711 | 50% | 67% | +$1,591 | -$16,225 | 120.7% | $-18,589 (vs do-nothing $-14,223) |
| $155 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.90 | 5/8 | $9,917 | $9,588 | 49% | 66% | +$952 | -$24,992 | 186.0% | $-26,021 (vs do-nothing $-21,655) |
| $155 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.20 | 4/8 | $10,036 | $9,765 | 46% | 65% | +$1,082 | -$21,074 | 156.8% | $-22,770 (vs do-nothing $-18,404) |
| $155 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 2/8 | $9,825 | $9,668 | 42% | 63% | +$880 | -$11,067 | 82.3% | $-14,098 (vs do-nothing $-9,732) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.