8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $216.00 (banked floor $215.49) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $14,640/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $483/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-53,852 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 8 × $172.50 | 91% | $7,760 | $4,213 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 8 × $170 | 76% | $7,920 | $1,508 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $195 | 17 Jul | 3d | 25.1% | 99% | 1% | $54 | $540 | -$7,220 | $12,544 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $195 25.1% OTM over spot $155.88 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid) = $54 credit for the 3d cycle → $540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $195) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $195.10) 99% EV / mo +$502 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-113 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,328 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $227 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.97/sh now → $5.64 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $195 is $21 below CC-SS $216.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $195.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,852 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,826 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $195): -$12,544 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $210): -$1,159 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,729 (+$41,123 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,066, the opportunity cost of earning $540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,474 (+$20,378 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 7 × $175 | 17 Jul | 3d | 12.3% | 93% | 14% | $497 | $4,970 | -$2,790 | $28,200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $175 12.3% OTM over spot $155.88 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.75 mid) = $497 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,970/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $175.75) 94% EV / mo +$3,599 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-4.0] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,247 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,802 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $204 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.66/sh now → $4.71 mid-life (likely $4.18–$7.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 186 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $179 (overshoots $3.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $41 below CC-SS $216.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $175.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,852 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,826 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $175): -$28,200 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$580 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,806 (+$26,046 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,143, the opportunity cost of earning $4,970/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,729, position total $-35,223 (+$18,629 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $172.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 10.7% | 91% | 10% | $776 | $7,760 | — | $34,021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $172.50 10.7% OTM over spot $155.88 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.01 mid) = $776 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,760/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $173.51) 92% EV / mo +$5,313 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,893 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,906 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.51/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $4.46–$8.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 289 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $177 (overshoots $4.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $43 below CC-SS $216.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $173.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,852 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,826 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $172.50): -$34,021 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,047 (+$20,805 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,384, the opportunity cost of earning $7,760/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,768, position total $-37,282 (+$16,570 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $165 | 17 Jul | 3d | 5.9% | 79% | 42% | $1,561 | $15,610 | +$7,850 | $34,136 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $165 5.9% OTM over spot $155.88 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $2.26 mid) = $1,561 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,610/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $167.26) 84% EV / mo +$8,983 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.1-4.1] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~13.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $29,002 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,435 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $199 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.05/sh now → $4.28 mid-life (likely $4.67–$8.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 777 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $169 (overshoots $4.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $51 below CC-SS $216.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.23 collected) or spot ≥ $167.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,852 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,826 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $165): -$34,136 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$580 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,742 (+$20,110 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,079, the opportunity cost of earning $15,610/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,665, position total $-41,159 (+$12,693 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $205 | 24 Jul | 10d | 31.5% | 98% | 5% | $168 | $504 | -$7,416 | $8,629 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $205 31.5% OTM over spot $155.88 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.31 mid) = $168 credit for the 10d cycle → $504/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $205.31) 98% EV / mo +$294 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.1-4.3] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-440 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,287 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $217 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.17/sh now → $9.32 mid-life (likely $6.12–$11.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 83 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $210 (overshoots $5.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $11 below CC-SS $216.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $205.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,852 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,826 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $205): -$8,629 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,655 (+$46,197 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,992, the opportunity cost of earning $504/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,514 (+$20,338 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $182.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 17.1% | 90% | 20% | $1,104 | $3,312 | -$4,608 | $25,693 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $182.50 17.1% OTM over spot $155.88 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.42 mid) = $1,104 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $183.91) 91% EV / mo +$1,811 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.2-4.2] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,392 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,032 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $197 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.84/sh now → $7.67 mid-life (likely $6.64–$11.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 456 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $187 (overshoots $4.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $33 below CC-SS $216.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.38 collected) or spot ≥ $183.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,852 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,826 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $182.50): -$25,693 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,719 (+$29,133 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,056, the opportunity cost of earning $3,312/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,514 (+$20,338 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 7 × $175 | 24 Jul | 10d | 12.3% | 83% | 36% | $1,659 | $4,977 | -$2,943 | $27,038 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $175 12.3% OTM over spot $155.88 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.46 mid) = $1,659 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,977/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $177.46) 85% EV / mo +$1,918 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,264 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,350 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $192 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.11/sh now → $7.16 mid-life (likely $7.24–$10.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 803 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $179 (overshoots $4.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $41 below CC-SS $216.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.37 collected) or spot ≥ $177.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,852 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,826 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $175): -$27,038 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$580 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,644 (+$27,208 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,981, the opportunity cost of earning $4,977/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$567, position total $-34,061 (+$19,791 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $170 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.1% | 76% | 39% | $2,640 | $7,920 | — | $34,157 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $170 9.1% OTM over spot $155.88 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $3.40 mid) = $2,640 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $173.40) 81% EV / mo +$2,388 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.0] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,318 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,817 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $192 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.64/sh now → $6.82 mid-life (likely $7.47–$10.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,175 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $174 (overshoots $4.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $46 below CC-SS $216.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $173.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,852 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,826 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $170): -$34,157 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,183 (+$20,669 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,520, the opportunity cost of earning $7,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,904, position total $-37,418 (+$16,434 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $160 | 24 Jul | 10d | 2.6% | 60% | 83% | $5,040 | $15,120 | +$7,200 | $39,757 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $160 2.6% OTM over spot $155.88 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $6.40 mid) = $5,040 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $166.40) 71% EV / mo +$2,637 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.6] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~15.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,169 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$99 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $192 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.73/sh now → $6.18 mid-life (likely $8.26–$11.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,050 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $164 (overshoots $4.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $56 below CC-SS $216.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.57/sh (~25% of the $6.30 collected) or spot ≥ $166.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $173.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,852 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,826 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $160): -$39,757 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,783 (+$15,069 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,663 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,120, the opportunity cost of earning $15,120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,504, position total $-43,018 (+$10,834 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.140 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,826 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,663
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 8/8 | $7,760 | $7,277 | 91% | 92% | +$5,313 | -$34,021 | 253.1% | $-33,047 (vs do-nothing $-29,384) |
| $170 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.28 | 6/8 | $7,680 | $7,317 | 89% | 91% | +$5,525 | -$26,830 | 199.6% | $-27,015 (vs do-nothing $-23,352) |
| $167.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 5/8 | $8,400 | $8,097 | 85% | 88% | +$5,431 | -$23,408 | 174.2% | $-24,173 (vs do-nothing $-20,510) |
| $165 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.23 | 4/8 | $8,920 | $8,677 | 79% | 84% | +$5,133 | -$19,506 | 145.1% | $-20,851 (vs do-nothing $-17,188) |
| $170 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 8/8 | $7,920 | $7,437 | 76% | 81% | +$2,388 | -$34,157 | 254.1% | $-33,183 (vs do-nothing $-29,520) |
| $162.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.88 | 3/8 | $8,640 | $8,457 | 73% | 80% | +$4,274 | -$15,185 | 113.0% | $-17,109 (vs do-nothing $-13,446) |
| $167.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 7/8 | $7,980 | $7,557 | 73% | 79% | +$1,969 | -$31,287 | 232.8% | $-30,893 (vs do-nothing $-27,230) |
| $170 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 8/8 | $8,118 | $7,635 | 72% | 79% | +$2,356 | -$32,197 | 239.6% | $-31,223 (vs do-nothing $-27,560) |
| $167.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 7/8 | $7,968 | $7,545 | 69% | 77% | +$2,110 | -$29,432 | 219.0% | $-29,038 (vs do-nothing $-25,375) |
| $165 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 6/8 | $8,280 | $7,917 | 69% | 76% | +$1,937 | -$27,838 | 207.1% | $-28,023 (vs do-nothing $-24,360) |
| $165 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 6/8 | $7,624 | $7,261 | 66% | 75% | +$1,807 | -$26,278 | 195.5% | $-26,463 (vs do-nothing $-22,800) |
| $160 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 3/8 | $10,950 | $10,767 | 65% | 76% | +$4,476 | -$15,704 | 116.8% | $-17,628 (vs do-nothing $-13,965) |
| $162.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 5/8 | $8,100 | $7,797 | 65% | 74% | +$1,649 | -$24,048 | 178.9% | $-24,813 (vs do-nothing $-21,150) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 6/8 | $8,576 | $8,214 | 63% | 73% | +$1,861 | -$27,238 | 202.7% | $-27,423 (vs do-nothing $-23,760) |
| $160 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 4/8 | $7,560 | $7,317 | 60% | 71% | +$1,318 | -$19,878 | 147.9% | $-21,223 (vs do-nothing $-17,560) |
| $160 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.05 | 5/8 | $7,985 | $7,683 | 59% | 72% | +$1,548 | -$23,473 | 174.7% | $-24,238 (vs do-nothing $-20,575) |
| $157.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/8 | $9,000 | $8,877 | 57% | 72% | +$2,824 | -$10,799 | 80.4% | $-13,303 (vs do-nothing $-9,640) |
| $157.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.10 | 5/8 | $8,912 | $8,609 | 56% | 70% | +$1,538 | -$24,198 | 180.0% | $-24,963 (vs do-nothing $-21,300) |
| $157.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 4/8 | $8,820 | $8,577 | 56% | 69% | +$1,338 | -$20,458 | 152.2% | $-21,803 (vs do-nothing $-18,140) |
| $155 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.25 | 4/8 | $7,941 | $7,699 | 52% | 68% | +$1,213 | -$19,898 | 148.1% | $-21,243 (vs do-nothing $-17,580) |
| $155 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.35 | 3/8 | $7,515 | $7,332 | 51% | 67% | +$847 | -$15,794 | 117.5% | $-17,718 (vs do-nothing $-14,055) |
| $155 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 2/8 | $11,300 | $11,177 | 48% | 68% | +$2,632 | -$11,069 | 82.4% | $-13,573 (vs do-nothing $-9,910) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.