8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $215.51 (banked floor $215.01) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $13,412/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $534/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-49,932 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 8 × $175 | 87% | $7,520 | $3,169 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 8 × $172.50 | 75% | $7,560 | $1,542 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $190 | 17 Jul | 3d | 18.9% | 98% | 5% | $65 | $650 | -$6,870 | $12,691 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $190 18.9% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.25 mid) = $65 credit for the 3d cycle → $650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $190.25) 98% EV / mo +$379 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.7-2.4] median · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $300 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,239 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $215 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.52/sh now → $4.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $26 below CC-SS $215.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $190.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,988 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $190): -$12,691 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $210): -$1,594 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,229 (+$36,703 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,194 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,035, the opportunity cost of earning $650/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-32,987 (+$16,945 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 8 × $177.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.1% | 90% | 20% | $504 | $5,040 | -$2,480 | $29,906 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $177.50 11.1% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.72 mid) = $504 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $178.22) 91% EV / mo +$1,947 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,517 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,801 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.84/sh now → $4.13 mid-life (likely $3.99–$7.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 283 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $182 (overshoots $4.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $38 below CC-SS $215.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $178.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,988 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $177.50): -$29,906 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,850 (+$21,082 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,194 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,656, the opportunity cost of earning $5,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$96, position total $-33,143 (+$16,789 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $175 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.5% | 87% | 13% | $752 | $7,520 | — | $31,658 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $175 9.5% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.98 mid) = $752 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $175.98) 88% EV / mo +$2,978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~8.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,648 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,479 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.71/sh now → $4.04 mid-life (likely $3.81–$6.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 404 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $179 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $41 below CC-SS $215.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $175.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,988 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $175): -$31,658 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,602 (+$19,330 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,194 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,408, the opportunity cost of earning $7,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,848, position total $-34,895 (+$15,037 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $167.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 4.8% | 73% | 55% | $1,484 | $14,840 | +$7,320 | $32,125 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $167.50 4.8% OTM over spot $159.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $2.21 mid) = $1,484 credit for the 3d cycle → $14,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $169.71) 78% EV / mo +$3,223 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~16.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,272 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,153 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $203 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.33/sh now → $3.77 mid-life (likely $4.45–$7.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,150 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $172 (overshoots $4.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $48 below CC-SS $215.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.12 collected) or spot ≥ $169.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,988 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $167.50): -$32,125 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$531 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,600 (+$18,332 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,194 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,406, the opportunity cost of earning $14,840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,041, position total $-39,068 (+$10,864 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $202.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 26.7% | 97% | 6% | $185 | $555 | -$7,005 | $6,321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 26.7% OTM over spot $159.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.94 mid) = $185 credit for the 10d cycle → $555/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $203.44) 97% EV / mo +$375 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-4.0] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $228 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,985 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $213 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.79/sh now → $8.34 mid-life (likely $5.81–$9.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 109 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $207 (overshoots $4.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $13 below CC-SS $215.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $203.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,988 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$6,321 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $210): -$1,594 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,859 (+$43,073 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,194 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,665, the opportunity cost of earning $555/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-32,987 (+$16,945 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $190 | 24 Jul | 10d | 18.9% | 92% | 17% | $736 | $2,208 | -$5,352 | $19,674 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $190 18.9% OTM over spot $159.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.01 mid) = $736 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,208/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $191.01) 92% EV / mo +$1,007 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-4.0] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,292 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,247 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $200 @ 73% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.57/sh now → $7.48 mid-life (likely $5.94–$10.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 317 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $194 (overshoots $4.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $26 below CC-SS $215.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $191.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,988 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $190): -$19,674 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,618 (+$31,314 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,194 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,424, the opportunity cost of earning $2,208/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,047 (+$16,885 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $180 | 24 Jul | 10d | 12.6% | 84% | 34% | $1,552 | $4,656 | -$2,904 | $26,858 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $180 12.6% OTM over spot $159.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.04 mid) = $1,552 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,656/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $182.04) 86% EV / mo +$1,357 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,279 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,905 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $193 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.64/sh now → $6.82 mid-life (likely $6.25–$10.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 726 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $184 (overshoots $4.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $36 below CC-SS $215.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.94 collected) or spot ≥ $182.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,988 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $180): -$26,858 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,802 (+$24,130 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,194 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,608, the opportunity cost of earning $4,656/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-33,047 (+$16,885 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $172.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 7.9% | 75% | 40% | $2,520 | $7,560 | — | $31,890 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $172.50 7.9% OTM over spot $159.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $3.30 mid) = $2,520 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $175.80) 79% EV / mo +$1,643 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.3] median · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,754 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,559 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $193 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.97/sh now → $6.35 mid-life (likely $7.19–$10.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,185 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $177 (overshoots $4.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $43 below CC-SS $215.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.79/sh (~25% of the $3.15 collected) or spot ≥ $175.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,988 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $172.50): -$31,890 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,834 (+$19,098 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,194 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,640, the opportunity cost of earning $7,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,080, position total $-35,127 (+$14,805 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $162.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 1.7% | 58% | 88% | $4,840 | $14,520 | +$6,960 | $37,570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $162.50 1.7% OTM over spot $159.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $6.45 mid) = $4,840 credit for the 10d cycle → $14,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $168.95) 70% EV / mo +$1,315 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [0.9-3.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~18.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,378 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$246 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $198 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.12/sh now → $5.74 mid-life (likely $7.84–$10.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,216 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $167 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $53 below CC-SS $215.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.51/sh (~25% of the $6.05 collected) or spot ≥ $168.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $174.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $215.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,988 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $162.50): -$37,570 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,514 (+$13,418 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,194 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,320, the opportunity cost of earning $14,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.25 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,760, position total $-40,807 (+$9,125 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.144 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,988 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,194
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 8/8 | $7,520 | $6,986 | 87% | 88% | +$2,978 | -$31,658 | 235.5% | $-30,602 (vs do-nothing $-27,408) |
| $172.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 6/8 | $7,140 | $6,726 | 83% | 85% | +$2,197 | -$25,093 | 186.7% | $-25,100 (vs do-nothing $-21,906) |
| $170 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 5/8 | $8,050 | $7,696 | 79% | 82% | +$2,157 | -$21,951 | 163.3% | $-22,489 (vs do-nothing $-19,295) |
| $172.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 8/8 | $7,560 | $7,026 | 75% | 79% | +$1,643 | -$31,890 | 237.3% | $-30,834 (vs do-nothing $-27,640) |
| $167.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.12 | 4/8 | $8,480 | $8,186 | 73% | 78% | +$1,842 | -$18,357 | 136.6% | $-19,426 (vs do-nothing $-16,232) |
| $170 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 6/8 | $6,750 | $6,336 | 71% | 77% | +$1,277 | -$25,057 | 186.4% | $-25,064 (vs do-nothing $-21,870) |
| $172.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 8/8 | $7,271 | $6,737 | 70% | 77% | +$796 | -$30,290 | 225.4% | $-29,234 (vs do-nothing $-26,040) |
| $170 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 7/8 | $7,535 | $7,062 | 67% | 75% | +$986 | -$27,589 | 205.3% | $-27,064 (vs do-nothing $-23,870) |
| $167.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 6/8 | $8,010 | $7,596 | 67% | 75% | +$1,296 | -$26,137 | 194.5% | $-26,144 (vs do-nothing $-22,950) |
| $165 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 3/8 | $8,100 | $7,866 | 67% | 74% | +$1,203 | -$14,344 | 106.7% | $-15,944 (vs do-nothing $-12,750) |
| $167.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 6/8 | $7,147 | $6,733 | 64% | 73% | +$678 | -$24,757 | 184.2% | $-24,764 (vs do-nothing $-21,570) |
| $165 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 5/8 | $7,725 | $7,371 | 63% | 72% | +$905 | -$22,681 | 168.8% | $-23,219 (vs do-nothing $-20,025) |
| $165 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 6/8 | $7,994 | $7,581 | 61% | 71% | +$563 | -$25,777 | 191.8% | $-25,784 (vs do-nothing $-22,590) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $162.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 2/8 | $6,800 | $6,626 | 60% | 70% | +$541 | -$9,922 | 73.8% | $-12,054 (vs do-nothing $-8,860) |
| $162.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 4/8 | $7,260 | $6,966 | 58% | 70% | +$657 | -$18,785 | 139.8% | $-19,854 (vs do-nothing $-16,660) |
| $162.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.50 | 5/8 | $7,500 | $7,146 | 57% | 70% | +$413 | -$22,256 | 165.6% | $-22,794 (vs do-nothing $-19,600) |
| $160 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.50 | 4/8 | $6,706 | $6,412 | 54% | 68% | +$243 | -$18,405 | 136.9% | $-19,474 (vs do-nothing $-16,280) |
| $160 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 4/8 | $8,820 | $8,526 | 53% | 67% | +$893 | -$19,265 | 143.3% | $-20,334 (vs do-nothing $-17,140) |
| $160 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 2/8 | $8,900 | $8,726 | 52% | 66% | +$540 | -$10,212 | 76.0% | $-12,344 (vs do-nothing $-9,150) |
| $157.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.60 | 4/8 | $7,482 | $7,189 | 50% | 66% | +$147 | -$18,965 | 141.1% | $-20,034 (vs do-nothing $-16,840) |
| $157.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 3/8 | $7,335 | $7,101 | 48% | 65% | +$256 | -$14,959 | 111.3% | $-16,559 (vs do-nothing $-13,365) |
| $157.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 2/8 | $11,100 | $10,926 | 44% | 62% | +$155 | -$10,492 | 78.1% | $-12,624 (vs do-nothing $-9,430) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.