8 contracts (800 sh) | BE SS: $210.90 | CC-SS: $217.27 (banked floor $215.77) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $137,440 | (ND $16.80 + SW $155) x 800 |
| Normal income ref | $18,857/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $411/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-49,932 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 8 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 8 × $172.50 | 73% | $10,011 | $1,655 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 7 × $210 | 24 Jul | 7d | 29.9% | 99% | 2% | -2pp | $98 | $420 | -$9,591 | $4,989 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $210 29.9% OTM over spot $161.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $98 credit for the 7d cycle → $420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $210) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $210.18) 99% EV / mo +$339 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $176/mo median; plan ~$120/mo after 68% keep · $571 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.2], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,301 Free roll-up +$18/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $248 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.90/sh now → $7.71 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $210 is $7 below CC-SS $217.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $210.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $210)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $217.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,919 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $210): -$4,989 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$614 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,616 (+$45,316 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,923 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-693, the opportunity cost of earning $420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.46 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-34,416 (+$15,516 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 8 × $187.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 16.0% | 93% | 14% | +0pp | $568 | $2,434 | -$7,577 | $23,246 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $187.50 16.0% OTM over spot $161.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.85 mid) = $568 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,434/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $187.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $188.35) 94% EV / mo +$1,422 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,262/mo median; plan ~$858/mo after 68% keep · $6,966 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,557 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $226 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.06/sh now → $6.41 mid-life (likely $5.14–$9.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 402 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $192 (overshoots $4.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $187.50 is $30 below CC-SS $217.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $188.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $217.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,919 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $187.50): -$23,246 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,259 (+$27,673 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,923 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,336, the opportunity cost of earning $2,434/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.46 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-34,529 (+$15,403 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $177.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.8% | 80% | 40% | +3pp | $1,536 | $6,583 | -$3,429 | $30,278 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $177.50 9.8% OTM over spot $161.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.01 mid) = $1,536 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $177.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $179.51) 83% EV / mo +$1,183 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,807/mo median; plan ~$1,909/mo after 68% keep · $12,662 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,154 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $216 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.29/sh now → $5.86 mid-life (likely $6.06–$9.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 884 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $182 (overshoots $4.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $177.50 is $40 below CC-SS $217.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.92 collected) or spot ≥ $179.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $217.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,919 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $177.50): -$30,278 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,291 (+$20,641 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,923 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,368, the opportunity cost of earning $6,583/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.46 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-34,529 (+$15,403 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $172.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.7% | 73% | 44% | +3pp | $2,336 | $10,011 | — | $33,478 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $172.50 6.7% OTM over spot $161.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.04 mid) = $2,336 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,011/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $175.53) 78% EV / mo +$1,194 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,832/mo median; plan ~$2,606/mo after 68% keep · $15,311 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,143 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $216 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.92/sh now → $5.60 mid-life (likely $6.22–$9.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,306 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $177 (overshoots $4.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $45 below CC-SS $217.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.73/sh (~25% of the $2.92 collected) or spot ≥ $175.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $217.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,919 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $172.50): -$33,478 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,491 (+$17,441 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,923 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,568, the opportunity cost of earning $10,011/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.46 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,432, position total $-36,961 (+$12,971 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $162.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.5% | 54% | 96% | +10pp | $4,515 | $19,350 | +$9,339 | $33,822 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $162.50 0.5% OTM over spot $161.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.60 mid) = $4,515 credit for the 7d cycle → $19,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $169.10) 67% EV / mo +$1,300 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,596/mo median; plan ~$3,805/mo after 68% keep · $18,680 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$953 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $206 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.20/sh now → $5.09 mid-life (likely $7.14–$10.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,307 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $168 (overshoots $5.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $55 below CC-SS $217.27: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.61/sh (~25% of the $6.45 collected) or spot ≥ $169.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $172.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.14 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $217.27, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,932 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,919 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $162.50): -$33,822 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $210): -$614 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,449 (+$16,483 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,923 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,526, the opportunity cost of earning $19,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $178.46 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,657, position total $-41,073 (+$8,859 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.144 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,919 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,923
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $177.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 8/8 | $9,514 | $9,103 | 74% | 80% | +$2,937 | -$27,374 | 203.7% | $-26,387 (vs do-nothing $-22,464) |
| $172.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 8/8 | $10,011 | $9,600 | 73% | 78% | +$1,194 | -$33,478 | 249.1% | $-32,491 (vs do-nothing $-28,568) |
| $175 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 7/8 | $9,525 | $9,356 | 71% | 78% | +$2,851 | -$25,142 | 187.1% | $-24,769 (vs do-nothing $-20,846) |
| $170 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 7/8 | $10,950 | $10,781 | 69% | 75% | +$1,250 | -$30,532 | 227.2% | $-30,159 (vs do-nothing $-26,236) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 7/8 | $10,650 | $10,481 | 68% | 76% | +$2,933 | -$26,367 | 196.2% | $-25,994 (vs do-nothing $-22,071) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.65 | 8/8 | $9,886 | $9,474 | 67% | 76% | +$2,371 | -$28,894 | 215.0% | $-27,907 (vs do-nothing $-23,984) |
| $170 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 6/8 | $10,221 | $10,294 | 65% | 75% | +$2,598 | -$23,590 | 175.5% | $-23,831 (vs do-nothing $-19,908) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 5/8 | $9,429 | $9,744 | 64% | 72% | +$813 | -$22,684 | 168.8% | $-23,538 (vs do-nothing $-19,615) |
| $170 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.50 | 7/8 | $9,500 | $9,331 | 64% | 74% | +$2,084 | -$26,437 | 196.7% | $-26,064 (vs do-nothing $-22,141) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.90 | 5/8 | $9,536 | $9,851 | 62% | 73% | +$2,239 | -$20,434 | 152.0% | $-21,288 (vs do-nothing $-17,365) |
| $167.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.50 | 7/8 | $10,500 | $10,331 | 61% | 73% | +$2,160 | -$27,487 | 204.5% | $-27,114 (vs do-nothing $-23,191) |
| $167.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $11.60 | 8/8 | $9,943 | $9,531 | 61% | 72% | +$1,080 | -$30,534 | 227.2% | $-29,547 (vs do-nothing $-25,624) |
| $165 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 5/8 | $11,464 | $11,779 | 59% | 70% | +$867 | -$23,459 | 174.5% | $-24,313 (vs do-nothing $-20,390) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $165 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 5/8 | $10,500 | $10,815 | 58% | 71% | +$2,151 | -$21,234 | 158.0% | $-22,088 (vs do-nothing $-18,165) |
| $165 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.10 | 8/8 | $10,371 | $9,960 | 58% | 70% | +$641 | -$32,134 | 239.1% | $-31,147 (vs do-nothing $-27,224) |
| $165 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.60 | 6/8 | $9,943 | $10,016 | 58% | 71% | +$1,926 | -$24,400 | 181.6% | $-24,641 (vs do-nothing $-20,718) |
| $162.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $13.55 | 7/8 | $10,162 | $9,993 | 56% | 69% | +$834 | -$28,852 | 214.7% | $-28,479 (vs do-nothing $-24,556) |
| $162.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $12.70 | 6/8 | $10,886 | $10,959 | 55% | 70% | +$1,924 | -$25,240 | 187.8% | $-25,481 (vs do-nothing $-21,558) |
| $162.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.00 | 4/8 | $9,429 | $9,986 | 55% | 70% | +$1,817 | -$17,507 | 130.3% | $-18,975 (vs do-nothing $-15,052) |
| $162.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 4/8 | $11,057 | $11,614 | 54% | 67% | +$743 | -$19,327 | 143.8% | $-20,795 (vs do-nothing $-16,872) |
| $160 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $14.75 | 6/8 | $9,482 | $9,555 | 53% | 68% | +$739 | -$25,510 | 189.8% | $-25,751 (vs do-nothing $-21,828) |
| $160 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $13.65 | 5/8 | $9,750 | $10,065 | 52% | 69% | +$1,427 | -$21,809 | 162.3% | $-22,663 (vs do-nothing $-18,740) |
| $160 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 4/8 | $9,986 | $10,543 | 51% | 68% | +$1,348 | -$18,247 | 135.8% | $-19,715 (vs do-nothing $-15,792) |
| $160 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 3/8 | $9,771 | $10,571 | 49% | 65% | +$462 | -$14,900 | 110.9% | $-16,982 (vs do-nothing $-13,059) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 8 contracts at the conservative CC.